Calculation of relative market share. Analysis of the company's market share is an effective tool for a successful business What share in sales is considered the norm

Company market share

How to calculate a company's market share in practice? This question is often asked by beginner marketers. However, even for marketing specialists who have been working in the company for more than one year and are familiar with the market, the issue of assessing the company's share often remains difficult.

Is it really absolutely necessary for a company to know its market share or is it just a myth that is maintained despite its irrelevance. Let's try to figure it out in relation to Russian marketing.

Market share refers to the position a company occupies in the market relative to its competitors. How strong is its market position.

Market share - a simple formula

The formula for calculating market share is, in general, simple. A company's market share is equal to the ratio of sales figures to the total sales of products in the same category in the market. At the same time, the market share can be determined both in natural terms (ie, in units of production) and in monetary terms.

where: D r- market share, %;
Q n- the volume of sales of the analyzed company in monetary (ruble) or natural (unit) terms;
Qtot is the total volume of sales in the market. It can also be expressed both in rubles and in units of production.

It would seem simple - we take the sales volume of our company, which are known absolutely exactly, and divide by the sales volume of all companies offering similar products in the market where the company operates. And here the marketer faces the most important problem of assessing market share - where to get data on sales of competitors? For some markets, this data is not a secret - take reports on the automakers market - for any year you can find data on car sales with an accuracy of one piece.

Or data on sales of products of individual brands in network retail - such figures can be found in the reports of large research companies.

A similar study can be ordered for your company. Only it will cost more than one hundred thousand rubles, and whether the company is worth paying for this particular information or the funds that may be required for this, you can find a better use.

For some markets (by far not all), research companies conduct initiative research, from which you can find out the production and sales volumes of the main players operating in the market. As an example, I can give an example of a study by RBC for the heat meters market.

Such market research, which is offered on the market, is much cheaper than exclusive research, and is quite suitable for a primary acquaintance with the market. Just do not expect from them an absolute coincidence with the real state of affairs. Even in the most "correct" study, there may be data that differ from reality.

But what should a marketer do if the company in which he works is not able to order such a study?

Just start performing the direct task of marketing - the collection and analysis of information. We will talk further about how to do this. Now let's remember why a company is so interested in the market share it occupies.

Company market share - background

Some authors, when describing the concept of market share, refer to the article "Market Share: A key to Profitability" by Professor Buzzell, published in 1975 in the Harvard Business Review. But in this article only statistically confirmed the impact of market share on company success. The market share strategy is most well-known after the development by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) of its well-known strategic growth/market share matrix. But, if we proceed from the fact that marketing began with the economy, the history of the issue began much earlier.

Even in the first textbooks of economics (microeconomics), it was shown that a company's profit is determined by revenue (gross income) and production costs, variable and fixed. Accordingly, more successful (higher profit) enterprises or those that can sell goods at higher prices than competitors, or have lower unit costs. At the same time, the total amount of profit, in a highly simplified form, is defined as the difference between revenue and total costs.

Now let's look at the classic formula.

profit = revenue - (variable + fixed costs).

If we expand it a bit, we get:

Profit = quantity x (price - variable costs) - fixed costs

In the extreme case, the monopolist can set any price without falling sales. Elasticity and switching to substitute goods, in this case, we leave out of the brackets. But even in the case of leadership, the market leader may have lower fixed costs due to the experience curve.

In general, everything is logical. But remember when the strategy focused on the market share of the company became popular and in which companies. 70s. The economic crisis, which particularly affected large US companies. Accordingly, the main demand for consulting services was from diversified companies that needed to find criteria for optimizing their business. Indeed, up to this point, growing demand in the markets provided profit for most companies in the market, and with a slowdown in demand, the crisis was primarily felt by diversified companies with “dispersed” assets.

Is it worth adopting their experience without regard to the scale of the business?

Market share of the company - what to consider

Math doesn't lie. Other things being equal, the company with the largest market share has the advantage. But are the conditions always equal? What implicit conditions are taken into account when talking about the desire for market share growth?

– Growth in sales leads to reduction in unit costs.

This is more often true for variable costs. However, in general, costs are reduced only if fixed costs are kept at the same level, which is far from reality. More often than not, an increase in a company's sales leads to a spike in fixed costs over time.

Things to remember- the goal of increasing sales (with a given profitability) can be set provided that fixed costs remain at the same level. If this is not the case, a feasibility study is needed. Those. it is already necessary to consider an investment project and the goal is not to increase the market share, but to return on investment.

– Increasing market share allows for higher prices.

This condition is not always met. Moreover, in the pursuit of market share, price competition is often used, in the expectation that then prices can be raised. It is unlikely that it will be possible to raise prices - now is not the first half of the 20th century, when buyers often had no alternatives.

Things to remember- If you are not already a price-targeting company, don't count on the possibility of raising prices in the near future. Those 1-2% of the market volume, which you may get, will not make you a monopolist.

– An increase in profits upon reaching the desired market share allows you to compensate for the costs that the company incurred at the stage of actively increasing its market share.

This does not always happen. Actually, all criticism of the strategy aimed at increasing market share is aimed at proving that increasing market share does not always lead to increased profits. Who would doubt that … .

Things to remember- any planning involves setting quantitative goals and assessing the necessary investments. It is worth remembering that the main thing in entrepreneurial activity is not the volume of sales, but the profit received on a long-term basis.

It is precisely in order to assess whether it is worth aiming for a significant increase in sales - and what is it if not an increase in the company's market share - and an assessment of the company's position in the market is necessary. Of course, within the framework of the full scope of economic calculations.

How to estimate market size to calculate a company's market share

Now back to the question How can a marketer evaluate market share if accurate market data is not available?. First of all, I can advise, in the absence of a complete understanding of the market, for example, if you are just starting to work in this market, still do not save on buying a ready-made study, if it is available on the market. This is the best option to quickly get acquainted with the general situation in the market where the company operates.

If there is no such study or its purchase is impossible, it is worth looking for data in the reviews published by industry publications. Even the most general indicators will do. At the first stage, you just need to assess the significance of the company for the market. If the company's market share is estimated to be less than 5-10%, don't worry, you don't need exact data.

Read again the conditions that are necessary to target market share. It's just that with a market share of less than 20-30%, the company has practically no impact on the market. Accordingly, goal-setting with a focus on market share is inefficient. Focus on other metrics.

Here it is worth making a reservation. Estimating the size of the market is needed not only for setting goals. First of all, it is needed to assess the company's prospects in the market. After all, by evaluating the size of the market, you estimate the volume of potential demand and, consequently, the attractiveness of the market for the company. Remember at least the principles of segmentation. The segment must be measurable, must be large enough and last long enough for the investment to lead to a corresponding increase in sales. And, since the segment is only a part of the market, then all of the above applies to the market as well. The company must understand the size of the market in which it operates in order to set realistic goals. But here high accuracy is completely optional here. For a small company, it is enough to understand that its sales goals can be achieved in the market where it operates.

General market evaluation procedure could be as follows:

To begin with, we set the boundaries of the market.

1. We calculate the market volume by demand.

• We estimate the number of consumers.
• Estimates the average consumption per consumer.
• We obtain an estimate of the market volume by consumption.

Even in the B2B market, getting this data is not so difficult.

To estimate demand, you can apply the formula:

Demand = Number of consumers × Average unit cost × Number of units consumed.

It is worth noting that in this form the formula can be applied to individual product groups in which individual products are comparable in price. Otherwise, you have to compare too different products on the market.

For a rough estimate of the market, you can use the calculation based on consumption rates. In this case, we can estimate the volume of the market in physical terms.

Demand \u003d Number of inhabitants × Consumption rate.

Often this method helps to assess the potential market when the company plans to enter another region. Data on per capita consumption are sometimes provided in analytical articles. In addition, this indicator can be calculated on the basis of available information for individual markets, which the firm knows quite well.

1. We calculate the market volume by supply

• We create a list of manufacturers and importers
• We group them by volume (usually 3-4 groups are enough)
• We estimate the number of manufacturers and importers in each group.
• For the representative of each group, we estimate the volume of the proposal
• We get an estimate of the market size for the offer.

Production and import data can be used to estimate supply. Let's make a reservation right away that this makes sense if we are talking about a market for which you can estimate the volume of imports and exports. In this case, the formula is quite simple:

Supply = Production + Import - Export +/- Inventory.

Since it is almost impossible to estimate the volume of warehouse stocks, and in the conditions of consumer goods markets this factor does not play a role, this part of the formula can be neglected. It is advisable to use this method to assess the volume of the industry market on a national scale and to assess the dynamics in the market.

Evaluation by distribution channels.

If the goods are brought to the consumer through a chain of companies - sellers, then it is possible to estimate the volume of sales by distribution channels. After all, all products are sold to the end consumer through a network of outlets, the number of which can be estimated by also breaking them into categories.

• We build the structure of sales channels
• We estimate sales volumes for each of the participants in the distribution channel to end consumers.
• We calculate the offer for each of the groups of producers.
• We obtain an estimate of the market volume by distribution channels.

When understanding the situation, the values ​​of the market volume obtained by each of the methods will be approximately the same. A spread of 10-20% can be considered quite good accuracy. If not, then you missed something. You will have to refine your understanding of the market.

This will help you with individual indicators that come across both in open sources and can be obtained from experts, which will be those who work in contact with buyers, that is, your sellers.

In essence, you are creating your market map, which you will gradually refine throughout the entire period of work in the company. After three to six months of active work with market information, an understanding of the general patterns of the market comes.

In practice, it takes about one year for a marketer to become a market expert. This is what we should strive for.

Application

Methods for estimating the size of the market

marketing coordinator
department of electrotechnical
and telecommunication systems,
ZM Russia, Moscow

Determining the volume and market share is one of the main tasks of a marketer.

There are three components to this task:

The market volume is usually understood as the total cost of all goods of a given group sold to consumers of the market under study for a certain period of time.

Market share is the percentage of products with a certain brand name. Based on the regular measurement of the market share, it is possible to assess how the company's market positions are changing, how effective its marketing efforts are.

Market potential is the maximum size of the market with the greatest marketing activity of all companies in this industry sector of the market, under a certain state of the marketing environment. This is a theoretically calculated value, which is never achieved in reality.

Market potential plays an important role when compared to the current market size. Based on this comparison, there is clarity regarding the possible expansion of the market. And these opportunities are one of the main indicators of market attractiveness when making decisions on entering this market.

Methods for determining the size of the market may vary depending on:

Before determining the size of the market, you need to clearly understand what exactly we mean by this market - to outline the boundaries. This includes specifying the following parameters:

It can be one city, a specific region or several regions, all of Russia, etc. At the same time, if the market is heterogeneous and is divided into segments, the market volume must be determined for each segment separately. The scores obtained are then summed up.

For example, if we are researching the coffee market, then we need to clarify what types of coffee we are considering - instant coffee, ground coffee, coffee beans, coffee drinks, etc.

This article will show the methods for estimating the size of the market, which are most often used by Russian companies.

Methods for determining the size of the market can be divided into statistical, indirect and direct accounting methods.

Statistical methods for determining the size of the market based on primary data

To measure the volume of the consumer market, statistical methods are used based on:
1) retail audit;
2) a survey of consumers based on a statistical sample.

Retail Audit is a measure of the flow of goods from a producer to a consumer through a retail network. The method is based on the assumption that the entire volume of the consumed product was purchased in stores, therefore, by fixing and summing up the number of sales of all stores (as well as markets, kiosks and other types of outlets), we will get the market volume of this product.

Retail audit allows you to determine:

Retail audits are carried out by large research agencies with extensive data collection and analysis resources and mature research technology. Agencies are the most popular in Russia AC Nielsen, MEMRB,"Business analytics". Such studies cost tens and even hundreds of thousands of dollars, so they can be afforded mainly by large companies, most often global manufacturers of food and consumer goods.

The retail audit is as follows:

1. The Agency makes a complete census (sensus) of the trade network of the study area.

The census includes any retail outlets that have the studied goods in stock, ready for sale. The census usually takes into account the specific features of each outlet: its type, location, sales area, assortment, number of cash registers, number of sales staff, etc.

To take into account the dynamics of the trading network, the sensor data is constantly updated.

As a result of the sensation, we get a complete description of the general population under study - the number of outlets, their classification and distribution.

Panels are those stores where sales of the researched product will be recorded. The Agency agrees in advance with them on the possibility of the presence of its auditors and the collection of information.

The panel retains all the properties of the general population and is compiled taking into account the proportional importance of individual trading channels or regions for the entire market. The panel is divided into sub-samples, consisting of different types of outlets. Each subsample has its own extrapolation factor to display the entire trading network. The data collected from the panel is extrapolated to the entire trading network to display the situation in the entire market.

The panel is permanent, except in cases of major changes in the city's sensus. Outlets that for various reasons drop out of the trading network are replaced with equivalent ones.

3. Data collection.

Data collection is carried out by marketing auditors. The auditor works directly at the point of sale and keeps a description of all the goods of the category under study, located both on the trading floor and in the warehouse. The audit is carried out cyclically. Each audit cycle reflects sales over a two-month period.

During the audit, for each unit of goods, such data as the name of the product, trade mark, manufacturer, price, quantity of goods in the warehouse and on the sales floor, the main characteristics of the product (weight, taste, number of units in a package, type of packaging, etc.) .P.).

The duties of the auditor also include determining the number of purchases made by the outlet for the period, obtained from invoices and other documentation; comparison of current and past purchases of goods by this store; comparison of invoices with the actual quantity of goods in the warehouse.

The data is entered into specially designed questionnaires adapted for each outlet of the panel.

4. Calculation of reporting indicators.

All collected data is entered into databases and processed using software. For each brand of goods and for different groups of goods (in accordance with the individual requirements of the customer), the following indicators are calculated:

Number of sales of a particular brand (sales volume in quantitative terms)= quantity of goods in stock at the beginning of the period - the balance of goods in stock at the end of the period + purchases made by the outlet for the period. The number of sales is measured in the same units as the product (kilograms, liters, pieces, etc.).

Quantitative share of sales of a particular brand in relation to the total sales of products in this category= (number of sales of a particular brand / total number of sales of all other brands of the product) x 100%.

Monetary sales volume of a particular brand= the number of sales of a particular brand x the price of this brand in the study period.

Cash share of sales= (monetary sales of a particular brand / monetary sales of all other brands of the product).

Market share is determined using indicators such as weighted and numerical distribution, selection indicator, average share in turnover.

Numerical Distribution (NR) is the ratio of the number of stores that carry a given brand of product to the total number of a particular type of store where a consumer typically buys that type of product, expressed as a percentage.

PR = number of retailers of brand Y of product X / total number of retailers of product X, (%).

Weighted Distribution (WP) is the market share of product X held by retailers selling brand Y.

BP = total sales of product X by retailers who sell brand Y / total sales of product X, (%).

A weighted distribution takes into account the size of stores that carry a particular product. For example, a weighted distribution of 60% of brand Y of product X means that brand Y is represented in stores that together account for 60% of product X's sales.

Selection Indicator (SW)= VR / PR = average sales of product X in stores selling brand Y / average sales of product X across all retailers.

A VR of 60% and a PR of 20% means above-average sized stores are selected (there are not many of them, but they produce the main sales of this product). The selection indicator in this case is greater than 1, namely 60/20 = 3.

Average share in turnover (AM) shows what position a particular brand occupies in selected stores and can be considered as the market share of brand Y in the total turnover of product X in selected stores.

SD = turnover of brand Y of product X in selected stores / total turnover of product X in selected stores, (%).

Market share (DR) = HR x IV x SD = HR x SD.

5. Analysis of the received data.

Based on this analysis of market share, it can be concluded that a company can increase the availability of a product and the market share of this product in the following ways during the distribution process:

Audit Limitations:

The benefits of an audit:

Survey of consumers based on a statistical sample

Market size can be determined by asking customers, for example, whether they bought a product in a certain period of time, and then multiplying the number of positive responses by the average purchase volume.

The survey can be complete (related to the entire population) or selective. A full survey is conducted when the population is relatively small (for example, a highly specialized segment of the industrial market) or when very detailed information is required. If a sample is made, then only a part of the representatives of the general population is polled, and the results are approximated to the entire population with a given degree of accuracy.

The representativeness of the sample is a mandatory characteristic. This means that all essential characteristics of the population are presented in the sample in the same proportion in which they are distributed in the general population.

Significant characteristics are those that may have an impact on the results of the survey. The sample can be representative if the following requirements are met:

The sample size greatly depends on what limits of accuracy and reliability are needed in a given study. That is, we must specify indicators such as confidence interval and confidence level.

Confidence interval (Tdov, %) is the sampling error you specify. For example, if you set a confidence interval of 3% and the answers to a particular research question are 48%, this means that even if the entire population is surveyed, the real value will fall between 45 (48-3) and 51% (48+ 3).

Confidence probability ( Rdov, %) shows how confident you can be in your results and that the characteristics of the sample match those of the entire population being studied. In other words, how likely is a random answer to fall within the confidence interval. In the vast majority of studies, 90-95% is sufficient.

If we combine the confidence probability and the confidence interval, then we can say that the answers to the question with a 95% probability will fall between 45 and 51%.

When approximating the results for the entire population, it is assumed that the indicator under study has a normal distribution. To assess the accuracy of the study, the standard deviation (s) is used, calculated by the formula:

where p is the expected proportion of positive responses. This value is not exactly known in advance, but it affects the sample size. The largest sample size would be required if the answer options were distributed in a ratio of 50 to 50%;
q = 1 — p ;
N— sample size.

An important property of a normal distribution is that 95.4% of all observations lie between the sample mean and 2. This means that at a 94.5% confidence level, the confidence interval will be ±2 of the mean. Other relationships between confidence probability and confidence interval are shown in the table.

This pattern is true for any normal distribution. The factor by which we multiply the standard deviation to get the boundary of the interval is called z-value, and a table like this one is also called z-table.

EXAMPLE. The company sells a software product for automating the workflow of enterprises. This product is only suitable for large and medium-sized enterprises. The product is licensed by the number of workstations. Known data on the average purchase of this product (the cost of the total number of automated jobs) for large and medium-sized enterprises. Based on a statistical sample, it is required to determine the volume of the product market for a certain period in a given region.

According to the conditions of the problem, the general population is limited to enterprises of only large and medium scale. Let's define: large enterprises - with more than 1000 employees, medium - from 500 to 1000 people. According to statistical reference books, we find the addresses and other details of enterprises, as well as how many such enterprises are registered in the region under study at the end of the study period.

Let's say the number of large enterprises is 1000, medium - 5000.

If you can not find directories with such information, you can contact the services of a local marketing / information agency.

Further, the task is reduced to compiling a random sample from the found enterprises and getting from its participants an answer to the question: did their enterprise buy similar software products for a given period of time?

Since the volume of purchases from large and medium-sized enterprises is different, the general population must be divided into two strata and each stratum should be examined separately.

We define the required accuracy of the study as Rdov= 90% and Tdov= 5%. This means that for our sample, we want to determine the number of enterprises that bought the product in the entire general population with a reliability of 90% and a maximum error of 5%. According to the z-table, these parameters give us the following information: the standard deviation multiplied by 1.65 (the z-value corresponding to a percentage of observations of 90%) should be equal to 5%.

From here we find that the standard deviation in our random sample should be equal to:

Let, based on our experience and knowledge of the market, we assume that the product could be bought by approximately 20% of the enterprises of each stratum, that is, the parameter p equal to 20%, respectively q = 80%.

We substitute these values ​​into the standard deviation formula (1) and find the required sample size:

where N = 174 enterprises.

There is another nuance here. We have just found the sample size assuming that the population size is unboundedly large. In our case, this is not the case, and the number of enterprises is limited. Therefore, the required sample will be smaller.

There is a formula that allows you to adjust the required sample size if the size of the population is known:

We consider the new sample size.
For medium enterprises: N' = 174 / (1+ 174 / 5000) = 168 enterprises.
For large enterprises: N' = 174 / (1+ 174/ 1000) = 148 enterprises.

As can be seen, the smaller the population, the greater the difference in sample size.

So, we determine the number of enterprises that bought a software product by asking the participants of the study the question: “Did you buy similar software products during the period t?”

Answer options:

We summarize the results in a table. For example, the answers were distributed as shown in Table. one.

Table 1

Poll results

We see that in our sample, 67 medium-sized businesses bought the product. This is 40% of the general population. So, with a probability of 90%, we can expect that in the entire general population the product was bought by 35 to 45% of enterprises, i.e. from 1750 to 2250 enterprises (35 and 45% of 5000 respectively).

Knowing the average purchase volume for each group of enterprises, we determine the market volume in each stratum by multiplying the number of enterprises by their average purchase volume. The average purchase volume can be determined from our own sales data.

We enter the calculation data in Table. 2.

table 2

Calculation of market volume

The total volume of the market of medium and large enterprises is obtained by adding the indicators of the two strata.

So, with a probability of 90%, the market volume of our product is in the range from 67,500 to 92,500 thousand dollars.

As you can see, the total error is quite large. However, the required accuracy is determined from the purpose for which we define the market size.

For example, the goal is to determine our market share.

Let our company's sales amount to $6 million, of which we sold $3.2 million worth of product to medium-sized enterprises, and $2.8 million to large ones.

So, in the market of medium-sized enterprises, our share is in the range from 4.7 to 6%:
(3.2 million / 67.5 million) x 100% = 4.7%.
(3.2 million / 52.5 million) x 100% = 6%.

Such an error in determining the proportion is usually acceptable. If not, we take a larger sample.

In real research, it is not so much the accuracy of the obtained values ​​that is most often important, but the possibility of comparing these values ​​for different periods of time. Therefore, the confidence interval is selected based on the possibility of comparing the values. That is, if next year we use the same method, then the error will be the same.

Differences in sample size are also not always important. For example, sample size is critical when determining market shares and looking at competitors with shares comparable to a confidence interval (say 2-5%), or when examining multiple product groups and requiring analysis for each group separately.

In industrial market research, the main difficulty is to find the required number of respondents. In order to interest the respondents, as a rule, they are offered a certain reward - gifts, discounts, participation in sweepstakes.

In surveys, for greater efficiency, several goals are set at once in addition to determining the size of the market, for example, determining preferences, further intentions of the consumer, creating a database of potential customers, etc. Therefore, the questionnaire is not limited to one question.

Indirect Methods

In the absence of statistical data or lack of time and money for statistical research, indirect methods are used. These methods estimate the size of the market very roughly. Therefore, they must be applied, guided by the following rules:

share method.

If there is data on the size of the market of the entire industry, then it is possible to estimate what share our product class has in the entire industry.

For example, let's estimate the size of the electronic document management market. Electronic document management refers to the market of automated software systems. From open sources (IDC report Services 2005—2009 Forecast and 2004 Vendor Shares- these are paid studies, but some of their fragments are published openly) it is known that the size of the market for automated software systems in Russia in 2004 was estimated at $ 1.9 billion. The cost of document management is about 4-5% of all costs for the implementation of automation systems (according to expert estimates of participants in this market). Consequently, the volume of the electronic document management market in 2004 is from 76 to 95 million dollars. If we compare this figure with the data of special studies, for example, market research by the RBC agency (RosBusinessConsulting, an analytical report "The market for electronic document management systems in Russia", Moscow, 2004), we get approximately the same values.

Probabilistic method.

For example, you sell software. Your potential customers are commercial enterprises of certain sizes and industries operating in a certain territory.

To determine the size of the market, you need to answer a number of questions. In responses, it is desirable to use data, relying on as realistic arguments as possible. The accuracy of the probabilistic method depends entirely on this.

Question 1. How many potential consumer firms know about my firm and product?

Let's say about 10%.

Question 2. How many potential customers who know about my firm and product can use the product from a technical point of view?

Let the answer be 70%.

Question 3. How many potential customers who know about my company and product can use the product from a technical point of view, how many of my company is suitable as a supplier of goods? Your company may not suit them because of its reputation, location of the office, language of communication.

For example, it is 25%.

Question 4. How many potential customers who know about my firm and product can use the product from a technical point of view, and how many potential customers who are suitable for my firm as a supplier of goods can afford to buy the product?

For example, 10 out of 100 companies will actually pay for the program, the rest will be acquired illegally. But if the program is protected by some kind of key, this will not happen, the program simply will not be bought without a license.

Let's say the answer is 10%.

We multiply the probabilities: 0.1 x 0.7 x 0.25 x 0.1 = 0.00175.

This means that our program occupies 0.175% of the market.

Let's say our firm sells $200,000 a year.

Therefore, the market size is (200,000 / 0.175) x 100 = $114,285,714 = $11 million.

The market size can be estimated based on the total number of customers who contacted us and their average purchase amount.

For example, a retail equipment manufacturer wants to estimate the share of the POS market for 2004. It is known that the average time to make a purchase decision, i.e. the time difference between the date the client applied to the company and the date of the actual purchase is 2 months (an indicator typical for the industrial market). The company itself sells cash terminals and keeps records in the CRM system.

Suppose a marketer receives the following data from a CRM system:

average purchase amount at POS terminals — $7,000 ( Spr).

The number of clients (companies) who applied to the company regarding cash terminals in the period from November 1, 2003 to November 1, 2004 is 200 (). We take such dates in order to take into account the time of decision making. That is, we assume that customers who applied to the company during this period will make a purchase only after 2 months, namely from January 1, 2004 to January 1, 2005.

The market volume is determined by the formula:

where — the volume of the POS terminal market in 2004 in money terms. The numerator of the formula is the market size, provided that all customers who bought terminals in 2004 (from us or from competitors) called our company beforehand;
- correction factor. This is an adjustment for clients who, for various reasons, did not call our company. The coefficient is determined by experts or based on customer surveys. For example, we know that only 90% of customers know our company and our cash registers. Of these, about 70% will definitely call us before making a purchase somewhere else to find out our conditions (it is clear that this percentage will be higher for recognized market leaders than for small companies).

Based on this, kpopr is equal to 0.90 x 0.7 = 0.63.

That is, the number of those who called us is 63% of the actual number of customers who bought cash registers.

Total = ($7,000 x 200 customers) / 0.63 = $2.222 million

Expert survey.

Market size is often determined based on a survey of experts.

Experts can be specialists of the enterprise, industry consultants or specialized organizations, as well as consumers of products.

There are several methods of expert surveys (Table 3).

Table 3

Methods of expert surveys

Expenditure method (standard consumption method).

This method consists in summing up the norms for the consumption of a product, multiplied by the number of consumers.

For example, it is known that every resident of Ukraine drinks 10 liters of beer a year (data from the statistical office). Ukraine has 48 million people.

The capacity of the Ukrainian beer market in physical terms = 48 million x 10 liters = 480 million liters.

Provided that the average cost of a liter of beer = 1.5 hryvnia, then the capacity of the Ukrainian beer market in monetary terms = 480 million x 1.5 hryvnia = 720 million hryvnia.

This method can be based on how much money the consumer can spend to purchase the proposed product. First, the total income of the inhabitants of the study region is calculated. The result is then adjusted for the non-saving share of the population's income, then for the share of the population's expenditures corresponding to the project of the commodity group or subgroup. Data for these calculations can be found on the websites of the State Statistics Committee and the Central Bank of Russia.

The market capacity calculated in this way usually turns out to be overestimated, so this method can be called optimistic.

income method.

Here, the annual turnover of one of the market players working with similar products is taken as the basis for calculations. Some of them publish the results of their work in the press, even indicating the share of the market they occupy. To find data on the size of the local market, the result must be corrected by determining the share of enterprises of this type in the total sales of the selected group of goods. The data obtained in this way on the volume of the regional market can be used for developments in another region, but at the same time it is necessary to take into account the data of the State Statistics Committee on the ratio of the purchasing power of the regions. This method gives a pessimistic estimate.

Extrapolation.

Data from previous years are extrapolated taking into account past growth rates.

Direct Accounting Methods

Press monitoring.

In the case of an industrial market, where there are few sellers, few buyers, and each purchase costs a lot of money, the size of the market can be calculated by directly adding up the data on projects announced by competitors.

Companies operating in such markets, as a rule, publish information about their projects in the press and the Internet (because there are few projects, they tend to tell about each at least on their own website). Thus, closely following the emerging information, monitoring the press, competitive and thematic Internet sites, one can collect very accurate information about all projects in this industry for the reporting period.

Statistical and accounting data.

Exclusive

Often, a company has access to specific data, which can be used to accurately determine the size of the market.
Let's go back to the POS example. It is known that a special stamp must be pasted on all cash terminals during the sale, certifying that this type of cash terminal is allowed for operation by the State Tax Inspectorate. It is also known that the right to manufacture and sell such stamps belongs to only one organization.

If we manage to find out from this organization how many stamps were sold in a year, then by multiplying the number of stamps by the average cost of a cash terminal, we will get the market volume and our share in it (according to our own sales data).

Another example: the market for electronic document management systems on the platform Lotus Notes/Domino.

All companies selling software on the platform Lotus Notes buy licenses for lotus from IBM (the manufacturer of this platform). Therefore, IBM has data on all sales in a given region. Multiplying the number of Lotus licenses sold by the average software price gives the market size.

public data

If you are selling a product imported from abroad, you can use customs databases.

Some industry associations and statistical agencies collect and publish data on the overall level of sales in their industries.

However, such statistics can be very inaccurate. Most Russian companies never provide accurate information about the volume of services produced or sold (double-entry bookkeeping, left income, etc.) and try in every possible way to circumvent existing rules (no matter what it concerns - customs, accounting or anything else). Therefore, in Russia it is hardly possible to claim that you have accurate information about the market or about any company (unless it is a market where there are only a very limited number of sellers or a limited number of buyers).

So, there are many methods for determining the size of the market. And their number, of course, exceeds that described in this article. It should be noted that in Russian practice, companies pay much more attention to the promotion of finished products than to research that requires high-quality initial data. Serious quantitative research takes a lot of time and money and is not justified for every company. Therefore, marketers often evaluate the market "offhand" using expert assessments. However, with the development of information technology and the spread of CRM systems for quantitative research, there are more and more opportunities.

LITERATURE

1. Materials of the training course for the retraining program in marketing // State University of Management "RIMA", 2002.
2. Kotler F. Marketing Management Millennium. 10th ed. - SPb., M., Kharkov, Minsk: - Publishing house "Piter", 2000.
3. Avdeev V.Yu. The use of sampling methods in the audit. http://www.audit-it.ru/viborka.php?foprint=1.
4. Haig P., Haig N., Morgan K. Marketing research in practice: Basic methods of market research. — Balance Business Books, 2005.
5. Anurin V., Muromkina I., Evtushenko E. Marketing research of the consumer market: Unique domestic experience / Textbook. - St. Petersburg: Publishing house "Peter Print", 2004.
6. Site materials http://marketing.spb.ru.

Also on this topic.

The next step to achieve the cherished goal is to determine the relative market share (RMA) of the company for all SBAs, which is found by dividing the market share of the company under study for a particular SBA by the market share of the company - the closest competitor. The results are listed in the table.

There are normative values ​​for the ODR indicator. Based on the results entered in the table for each SDR, the position in the market is determined, which ranges from a minor participant to dominance. Then an auxiliary table is built, in which the total share of sales for each position is calculated.

Table 3 - The strength of the SBA organization

ODR SZH = Sales revenue from largest competitors / Sales revenue

Percentage of Sales = Total Sales Revenue / Sales Revenue

Table 3.1 Practical value of the ODR indicator

Table 4 - Strength of positions

Based on the results of the first analyzes, preliminary conclusions can be drawn. As can be seen from Table 3, the largest revenue (36.38% of the total) is generated by the mid-price segment of beer (in the Russian Federation and the CIS), while in the Russian Federation this segment is unprofitable, and in the CIS it is simply unprofitable (from Table 2). However, this segment includes the most popular brands of Baltika beer, and due to the huge revenue, this segment takes on the lion's share of overhead costs, and, having abandoned these SBAs, there is a high probability that smaller zones will be unprofitable. Premium beer brands sold in the Russian Federation distinguished themselves by high rates of profitability. In general, everything is in order with the profitability of the enterprise (the average level is 17.7% from Table 2).

Table 3 shows that SBAs located in the zone of net leadership bring the most revenue (about 40% - 4 SBAs out of 10), which is certainly a huge plus, but about 30% of revenue is brought by SBAs with strong followers and followers. This problem should be solved in the future.

Construction of the "Growth / Growth" matrix

The "Growth / Growth" matrix is ​​built on the basis of the following data: the growth of the company for each SBA (on the abscissa axis) and the growth of the market (on the ordinate axis). Data provided by the marketing department.

Table 5 Initial data for constructing the Growth/Growth matrix

There would be the last column to make the fourth!

fig.1 Matrix "Growth / Growth"

To analyze the dynamics of changes in the market share of Baltika for each SBA, a table is built based on the results of the Growth / Growth matrix.

Table 5.1 - Analysis of the dynamics of changes in the company's ODR

It is worth noting that 41.51% of Baltika's SZH is threatened with a decrease in market share in the foreseeable future, provided that managers do not take adequate action. It is necessary to invest money received from profitable SBAs in the development of lagging behind (carrying out marketing activities, PR companies, etc.).

Building the BCG Matrix

To perform this analysis, data on the relative market share of SBAs and the rate of market growth are required. This information is already known.

Table 6. Initial data for constructing the BCG matrix

fig.2 BCG matrix

The activities of Baltika are developing in the rapidly growing markets of Russia and neighboring countries, so among our SZH there will be no Dogs (which is a plus) and Cash Cows (which is a minus). All SBAs are growing at an average of 18% per year, the market share of all varies greatly. A sufficient number of "Difficult Children", some of which go to the "Stars" zone. Most of the revenue comes from SZH with a high market share, and this has a positive effect on the state of the company. However, one of the SBAs - Premium, RF - may lose its position and move into the "Cash Cows" zone.

Market share characterizes the position of the company in the market relative to competitors. The quantitative indicator of market share is determined by the percentage ratio of sales volume indicators to the total sales volume of goods of the same category in the market.

Although market share is the most important indicator of a company's marketing performance, there is no universally accepted perfect method for measuring it. The company's share can be calculated both on the market as a whole and within a separate serviced segment. Segment served - part of the total market for which there is competition. In a situation where the volume of sales in the market as a whole is unknown, the share is determined relative to:

• regarding sales of a number of closest competitors;
• relative to the market leader, leading competitor.

Market share can be determined in two ways:

• in kind;
• in value terms.

Market share in real terms (in unit terms) - the number of units of a product sold by a particular company as a percentage of total sales in the market, expressed in the same units.

Unit Sales = Unit Sales Market Share (%) * Unit Sales Total Market

Market share in value terms (in sales volumes). Market share by sales volume differs from unit market share in that it reflects the prices at which goods are sold. In fact, a relatively simple way to calculate the relative price is to divide the market share by sales volume by the market share by unit sales.

Market share by volume =Sales volume (rub)
sales (%) Total sales in the market

Market share through brand consumption intensity known as Parfitt and Collins technique (P&C methodology). For the calculation, data from panel surveys (i.e., studies conducted on a constant sample of consumers) are used. The following calculation formula is applied (in %):

Brand Market Share = Brand Penetration * Brand Reacquisition * Brand Consumption Intensity.

brand penetration to the market is defined as the percentage of buyers of a given brand (who made a purchase at least once) of the total number of buyers who purchase goods to which this brand belongs in a certain period. Reacquisition of a brand characterizes the loyalty of consumers to this brand. It is defined as the percentage I of repeated purchases made by buyers for a certain period of those who have already purchased this brand at least once. brand consumption intensity is calculated as the ratio of the average amount of consumption of a given brand of repeat buyers to the average amount of consumption by all groups in this category of goods.

Imagine that you are running a marathon, and your opponents are all triathlon champions. What are the chances that you will come in the top three? What are the chances that you will run to the finish line if you have never done it?

Market share: structured industries

It's the same in business. If in the area that you have chosen for business development, potential competitors are champions in triathlon, then it will be extremely problematic for you to take your share.

There is a simple rule. It is easiest to win back your share in the least structured branch of business. This means that there are no clear leaders and winners in it, you have prospects for. And all participants have minor shares. You just tune in competently and go ahead.

There are a number of areas in which super champions operate, and shares there have long been distributed: travel agencies, PVC windows, real estate agencies, etc.

Market share: how to choose your niche

When choosing your niche, pay attention to the following points

See how many players are participating in the "run". Estimate how many participants and what shares they occupy.

Find out what "races" are happening nearby. You can stay within the current business and find something nearby in an adjacent area, and take a certain share there. Revenue from hitting such a point can grow in arithmetic progression.

And do not participate in "fun starts". No need to invent artificial niches or hope they exist. You should not start with a product that is too narrow, which, according to your assumption, will definitely “shoot”. It may “shoot”, but the amount of effort spent will be disproportionate to the profit received. A consulting service for agronomists through a mobile application is certainly an interesting idea. But is the game worth the candle?

Market share: for those at the start

Market share: seasonal business - we deliver Christmas trees and disperse

If you are a seasonal business, you have several options for further development.

Occupy new niches to compensate for the drop in revenue. A share in pyrotechnics is compensated, for example, by a share in the sale of swimming pools.

Shrink in the off season, for example, selling Christmas trees for the new year. In December, the staff of the enterprise can number 200 people. By March, zero. We deliver Christmas trees to everyone and disperse.

Market share: growth on a common wave

Sometimes it happens that a market share can be taken without much effort within the company. This happens in two cases.

1. You operate in a booming market. Then the minimum set of movements and activities gives you serious growth and share. And that doesn't mean you're successful. In essence, your company is adrift like a badly steered ship.

A good example of a market that boomed and then plummeted would be the housing construction industry. Until recently, every year it itself grew by 30%. Then there was a collapse due to the financial crisis, and the market shares of its participants began to shrink rapidly.

2. You are operating in a market where two conditions are met at once:

• the size of the market is significant;
• the strength of competitors is small.

The next step is to continue the analysis. It is important to estimate the availability of the niche, the average bill, the length of the transaction, the frequency of purchases, the possibility of scaling.

We have shown that sometimes all the efforts to win a share of a particular market can be unjustified due to the huge amount of resources that will have to be spent. You have received the market preliminary evaluation algorithm. Before you start putting in the effort, make sure you're not reinventing the wheel and heading in the clouds.