Bionics is the basic technology of the 7th technological order. The seventh technological mode is cognitive

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First order (wave)

The first wave (1785-1835) formed a technological order based on new technologies in the textile industry, the use of water energy.

Second order (wave)

The second wave (1830-1880) - the accelerated development of transport (the construction of railways, steam shipping), the emergence of mechanical production in all industries based on a steam engine.

Third order (wave)

The third wave (1880-1940) is based on the use of electrical energy in industrial production, the development of heavy engineering and the electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, and new discoveries in the field of chemistry. Radio communication, telegraph, automobiles were introduced. Large firms, cartels, syndicates, trusts appeared. The market was dominated by monopolies. The concentration of banking and financial capital began.

Fourth order (wave)

The fourth wave (1930-1990) formed a way based on the further development of energy using oil and oil products, gas, communications, and new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors, aircraft, various types of weapons, consumer goods. Computers and software products for them, radars appeared and became widespread. The atom is used for military and then for peaceful purposes. Organized mass production based on conveyor technology. The market is dominated by oligopolistic competition. Transnational and multinational companies appeared, which made direct investments in the markets of various countries.

Fifth order (wave)

The fifth wave (1985-2035) is based on achievements in the field of microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. There is a transition from disparate firms to a single network of large and small companies connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close cooperation in the field of technology, product quality control, innovation planning.

Sixth and subsequent orders

According to Maxim Kalashnikov, the sixth techno-structure will be characterized by the following directions [ non-authoritative source?] :

Investing in a person, the education system of a new level
- High humanitarian technologies, increasing the abilities of a person and organizations
- New medicine (health development, health restoration)

Robotics, artificial intelligence, flexible "unmanned" manufacturing systems
Laser technology
New environmental management (high eco-technologies)
Compact and ultra-efficient energy, shift away from hydrocarbons, decentralized smart grids
- Use of hydrogen as an environmentally friendly energy carrier
- Perfect Energy Storage Devices
- Biofuel from forestry and agricultural waste, as well as marine plants
- New harmless technologies for the use of coal [ not in source]
Closing technologies in former industries (fund-, energy- and labor-saving)
New types of transport (heavy load, speed, range, low cost), combined transport systems
Manor urbanization of the "fabric" type, city-policies
Production of structural materials with predetermined properties
Chipization of all things and animals [not in source]
Designing a living
- Technologies of assembly and destruction of social subjects
Designing and managing the future

Notes

Wikimedia Foundation. 2010 .

See what the "Technological order" is in other dictionaries:

Technological order- the concept of the theory of scientific and technological progress, introduced into domestic science by economists D.S. Lvov and S.Yu. Glazyev: a set of associated industries (interconnected technological chains) that have a single ... ...

technological order- The concept of the theory of scientific and technological progress, introduced into domestic science by economists D.S. Lvov and S.Yu. Glazyev: a set of associated industries (interconnected technological chains) that have a single technical level and ... ...

Covers a closed reproductive cycle from the extraction of natural resources and professional training to non-productive consumption. Within the framework of technical specifications, a closed macro-production cycle is carried out, including the extraction and production of ... ... Glossary of business terms

Way: Economic way Technological way List of meanings of a word or phrase with links to relevant articles. Es ... Wikipedia

Technological order- the set of complexes of technologically related industries that has developed in the economy. The technological order assumes a single technical level of its constituent industries, connected by qualitatively homogeneous vertical and ... ... Explanatory dictionary "Innovative activity". Terms of innovation management and related fields

Or a "socio-economic structure" - a type of economy based on a certain form of ownership of the means of production and the corresponding relations in the course of this production. The economic structure of society may not be limited ... ... Wikipedia

Economic cycles Cycle name Characteristic period Kitchin cycle 3 4 years Juglar cycle 7 11 years Kuznets cycle 15 25 years Kondratiev cycle 45 60 years Kondratiev cycles (K cycles or K waves) periodic cycles of the modern world economy ... ... Wikipedia

Technology- 1. By definition, E. Jancz, a wide area of targeted application of the physical sciences, life sciences and behavioral sciences, which includes the entire concept of technology, as well as medicine, agriculture, management organization and others ... ... Economic and Mathematical Dictionary

technology- A set of methods of processing, manufacturing, changing the state, properties of the form of raw materials, material or semi-products in the production process. [MU 64 01 001 2002] technology 1. According to the definition of E. Jancz, a wide area of targeted application ... ... Technical Translator's Handbook

Capitalization table Local price Taxonomy Customs declaration Customs clearance Economic and Mathematical Dictionary

Books

Methodology and theory of innovative development of higher education in Russia. Monograph, Romanov E.V. Innovative development of higher education is considered as an intellectual basis, breaking through a new technological order in the context of implementing the concept of a new ...

Bulletin of the Stavropol State University

SIXTH TECHNOLOGICAL WAY AND PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIA (BRIEF REVIEW)

V. M. Averbukh

THE SIXTH TECHNOLOGICAL SETUP AND PERSPECTIVES OF RUSSIA (ABSTRACT)

The article describes the fragments of the economy and science condition in Russia, technological setups, long-range forecasts of innovational technologies for 2030. The aim is to enter the 6th technological setup in accordance with the materials of the Russian Academy of Science of2008 .

Key words: economy, export, technological setup, long-range forecast, the forecast period -2030.

The article considers: fragments of the state of the economy and science in Russia; technological structures; long-term forecasts of innovative technologies for 2030; the goal is to enter the sixth technological order, based on the materials of the 2008 session of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Key words: economy, export, technological structure, long-term forecast, forecasting period 2030.

UDC 681.513.54:681.578.25

The works of the outstanding domestic economist N. D. Kondratiev formulated the concept of cyclicity in the economy. This theory was further developed in the works of academicians D. S. Lvov and S. Yu. Glazyev under the modern name "Technological way". Technological order (wave) - a set of technologies characteristic of a certain level of development of production; in connection with scientific and technological progress, there is a transition from lower ways to higher, progressive ones.

Currently, there are six technological modes (Fig. 1). The world is moving towards the sixth technological mode, is approaching it, is working on it. Russia is today mainly in the third, fourth and early stages of the fifth technological order. The latter include mainly enterprises of the high-tech military-industrial complex.

The third technological order - (1880-1940) is based on the use of electrical energy in industrial production, the development of heavy engineering and the electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, new discoveries in the field of chemistry. Radio communication, telegraph, automobiles were introduced. There were large firms, cartels, syndicates, trusts. The market was dominated by monopolies. The concentration of banking and financial capital began.

The fourth mode (1930-1990) is based on the further development of energy using oil and oil products, gas, communications, and new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors, aircraft, various types of weapons, consumer goods. Computers and software products for them, radars appeared and became widespread. The atom is used for military and then for peaceful purposes. Organized mass production based on conveyor technology. The market is dominated by oligopolistic competition. Transnational and multinational companies appeared, which made direct investments in the markets of various countries.

The fifth order (1985-2035) is based on achievements in the field of microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. There is a transition from isolated firms to a single network of large

and small companies connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close cooperation in the field of technology, product quality control, innovation planning.

The sixth technological order will be characterized by the development of robotics, biotechnologies based on the achievements of molecular biology and genetic engineering, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence systems, global information networks, integrated high-speed transport systems. Within the framework of the sixth technological order, flexible automation of production, space technologies, the production of structural materials with predetermined properties, the nuclear industry, air transportation will be further developed, nuclear energy will grow, natural gas consumption will be supplemented by the expansion of the use of hydrogen as an environmentally friendly energy carrier, the application of renewable energy sources.

Rhythm snny tshyulogashsky * way" and generations of tinish

Figure 1. Technological modes

Thus, our country is faced with the most important and most difficult task - to make the transition to the sixth order (without having fully mastered the previous fifth) and to catch up with the advanced countries in this direction. This stage has already begun and will last 50-60 years. During this time, the world will move further to the seventh or even the eighth technological stage. And we need to take this into account in our long-term forecasts.

The future is laid in the past and present. Below are fragments of the current state of the economy and scientific research in Russia.

The current standard of living of the majority of the population of the Russian Federation is supported by exports, whose share in world GDP is less than 2%. Main export items: gas and oil (70%), primary (not processed) metals (15%), round (not processed) timber (10%). Everything else, including equipment, technology, weapons - less than 5%. The share of Russia in the world markets of high technologies barely reaches 0.2-0.3%.

A breakthrough is possible only through the creation of new science-intensive technologies, primarily for export. But it is known that spending on scientific research in the Russian Federation over the previous 18 years has decreased by more than five times and has approached the level of developing countries. Russia today spends seven times less on science than Japan, and 20 times less than the United States. The number of researchers has more than halved; many now work abroad. The number of domestic publications is somewhat reduced, while, for example, in India and Brazil it is increasing sharply. Thus, in general, in terms of the level of development of high technologies, the country rolled back, according to the most conservative estimates, by 10-15 years ago, and in some areas even by 20.

It is possible to make a breakthrough in the development of the latest, competitive technologies by carrying out long-term forecasting and long-term planning of scientific research and subsequent production of the latest technologies and products.

Figure 2. The share of manufacturers of high-tech products in the world (for work 5)

The President of the Russian Federation D.A. Medvedev gave the impetus to intensify forecasting developments by instructing the RAS in 2008 to urgently develop scientific and technical forecasts for the country's development for the long term - until 2030 in order to bring the country's economy out of that deeply unsatisfactory state of almost the entire situation affairs in the country: science, technology, economics. And most importantly - to enter the international market with high-tech developments.

In 2008, at the general meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences entitled "Scientific and technical forecast is the most important element of the development strategy of Russia", in his opening speech, the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Academician Yu. .» .

There are two reasons for activating scientific forecasting.

Academician A. Dynkin named the external cause. According to him, more than 70 countries are engaged in scientific and technical forecasting, including even Malaysia (28 million inhabitants, per capita income of 14 thousand dollars). In these countries, market opportunities for inventions and technologies are being studied (i.e., they are predicting application), and obstacles to moving the development into practice are identified. Our domestic business environment is openly hostile to innovation. Russia has chosen the wrong path - to acquire high technologies abroad, reducing investments in its own science to zero. According to academician A.D. Nekipelov, the internal reason is the need to move away from the fuel and raw material scenario of the country's development at an increasing pace, in connection with which the problem of technological forecasting has come to the fore.

At the session, 9 reports and 8 speeches were made on the subject under consideration. The adopted Decree of the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences states: “... to consider work in the field of scientific and technological progress as one of the priority areas of activity of the Russian Academy of Sciences; approve the initiative of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences on the establishment of the Interdepartmental Coordination Council

RAS on socio-economic and scientific-technological forecasting; will apply to the Government of the Russian Federation with a proposal to create a unified system of state forecasting in order to determine on a scientific basis the priorities of the country's development.

The Coordinating Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences for Forecasting was created under the leadership of Vice-President A.D. Nekipelov. The following 15 thematic sections have been formed:

1. Theories, methods and organizations of forecasting. 2. Modeling and information support. 3. Forecasting economic dynamics. 4. Forecasting the development of science, education and innovation. 5. Forecasting the development of nanotechnologies and new materials. 6. Forecasting biology and medical technology. 7. Forecasting information and communication technologies. 8. AIC forecasting. 9. Forecasting social and demographic development. 10. Forecasting nature management and ecology. 11. Forecasting the energy complex. 12. Forecasting engineering, defense industry and transport. 13. Forecasting socio-political processes and institutions. 14. Forecasting spatial development. 15. Forecasting the development of the world economy and international relations.

The Academy created the document "Forecast - 2030". On its basis, the President of the Russian Federation D. A. Medvedev announced the main vectors of the country's economic modernization for 20 years: 1) Leadership in the efficiency of production, transportation and use of energy. New types of fuel; 2) Development of nuclear technologies; 3) Improvement of information and global networks. Supercomputers; 4) Space research will bring real benefits in all areas of activity of our citizens from travel to agriculture and industry; 5) A significant breakthrough in medical technology, diagnostics and medicines. Naturally - armament and development of agriculture.

Bulletin of the Stavropol State University [¡vdN

The main task is competitiveness and access to the international market in all directions, to increase the efficiency of products in the domestic market. Possibly mixed forecasts.

According to Yu. S. Osipov, “the forecast itself should be developed by the scientific community under the auspices of the state ... it is necessary to create a unified system of state forecasting, with the help of which the authorities could, on a scientific basis, determine the priorities of the country’s strategic development.”

In his speech in 2009, D. A. Medvedev said: “The transition of the country to a higher level of civilization is possible. And it will be carried out by non-violent methods. Not coercion, but persuasion. Not by suppression, but by the disclosure of the creative potential of each individual. Not intimidation, but interest. Not by confrontation, but by convergence of the interests of the individual, society and the state ... intellectual resources, a "smart" economy that creates unique knowledge, the export of the latest technologies and products of innovative activity.

In our opinion, the interaction between long-term forecasting, business, regions, the state and developers (inventors) should be fixed by law, with the definition of the degree and form of participation, responsibility, etc. e. The end result should be the introduction of a product, technology to a foreign market. The need to adopt a legislative framework in the field of innovative development and forecasting was discussed at a meeting of the Interdepartmental Group within the framework of the IV National Congress “Priorities for Economic Development. Modernization and technological development of the Russian economy” (Moscow, October 8, 2009) .

D. A. Medvedev also spoke about political, economic and social tasks. He believes that “the inventor, innovator, scientist, teacher, entrepreneur will become the most respected people in society. Everyone will receive

necessary for fruitful activity. This program includes attracting foreign specialists, and benefits for researchers, and legislative and state support.”

Further, D. A. Medvedev said: “We will increase the efficiency of the social sphere in all areas, paying increased attention to the tasks of material and medical support for veterans and pensioners.” Actually, this is the main goal of long-term forecasting in order to create technologies of the sixth technological mode.

Successful implementation of scientific and technical forecasts will make it possible to competently develop and then implement social forecasts for the country's development. After all, this is the main task of the country's development.

According to B. N. Kuzyka, a number of technologies of the sixth order already have a certain reserve. In Russia, as of 2008, there are breakthrough research and development in the field of critical technologies in almost all areas of the sixth technological mode (Fig. 3) .

Thus, the research carried out in key areas of the sixth technological mode suggests that we have a chance. It is necessary to focus human, financial and organizational resources precisely on these priorities in order not to waste energy on developing those areas in which other countries have already gone too far relative to our level, and we will have to borrow world achievements.

But in order to successfully fulfill the forecasts and enter the sixth technological order, it is necessary, in our opinion, to fix the procedure for interaction between the Russian Academy of Sciences and business at the government level. RAS scientists determine the vectors (long-term forecasting), and corporations, the business community substantiate the general goal of research in the direction, draw up the terms of reference for the development of research, regulatory and organizational forecasts, up to industrial sales of products indicating

1 technologies for the production of software 1 bioinformation technologies 1 technologies for creating intelligent navigation and control systems 1 technologies for processing, storing, transmitting and protecting information 1 technologies for distributed computing and systems 1 technologies for creating an electronic component base Rational environmental management 1 technologies for monitoring and forecasting the state of the atmosphere and hydrosphere 1 technologies for assessing resources and predicting the state of the lithosphere and biosphere > technologies for reducing the risk and mitigating the consequences of natural and man-made disasters > technologies for the processing and disposal of man-made formations and wastes > technologies for environmentally safe development of deposits and mining

Industry of nanosystems and materials 1 technologies for creating biocompatible materials 1 technologies for creating membranes and catalytic systems 1 technologies for creating and processing polymers and elastomers 1 technologies for creating and processing crystalline materials 1 technologies for creating and processing composite and ceramic materials 1 nanotechnologies and nanomaterials 1 technologies for mechatronics and contemplation of microsystem technology

Energy and energy saving 1 technologies of nuclear energy, nuclear fuel cycle, safe management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel > hydrogen energy technologies 1 technologies for creating energy-saving systems for the transportation, distribution and consumption of heat and electricity > technologies of new and renewable energy sources energy from organic raw materials

Living systems 1 bioengineering technologies 1 biocatalytic, biosynthetic and biosensor technologies 1 biomedical and veterinary technologies for life support and protection of humans and animals 1 genomic and post-genomic technologies for drug development 1 technologies for environmentally friendly resource-saving production and processing of agricultural raw materials and food 1 cellular technologies

Transportation and aerospace technologies > technologies for creating new generations of rocket and space, aviation and marine equipment > technologies for creating and controlling new types of transport systems 1 technologies for creating energy-efficient engines and propulsion systems for transport systems

The level of Russian developments corresponds to the world, and in some areas Russia is in the lead

Russian developments as a whole correspond to the world level * Russian developments as a whole are inferior to the world level and only in certain areas the level is comparable

Figure 3. The status of basic research and development in Russia in 2008 (based on work 5)

Bulletin of the Stavropol State University [¡vdN

possible deadlines for the implementation of individual stages. Accordingly, in their financial plans, firms should allocate up to 3-5% of the budget for forecasting, the development of scientific research, possibly together with the state. And all this work should be under the control of the forecasting sections of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Government of Russia. This is not business enforcement, but rules, such as the Rules of the Road, binding on all participants. And for violation (non-allocation of appropriate funds, failure to meet deadlines, etc.), penalties should be applied. But there should also be incentives.

It should not be forgotten that such a large-scale forecasting - from the vectors of the country's development to specific technologies and their parameters, needs an effective organization of information support for forecasting activities.

Moreover, when carrying out scientific and technical forecasting, one of the basic principles of forecasting should be observed - the relationship between scientific, technical and social forecasts.

However, in order to avoid distortions - forgetting the internal development of elements 4 and 5 of technological modes, it is necessary to

make forecasts in these areas as well.

Society, especially business society, must realize that without scientific forecasting, the further development of our country is simply not possible. And for successful forecasting, it is necessary to train forecasters. Since forecasting is also supposed to be carried out for the development of regions, federal universities simply have to create departments of futurology and train forecasters in technical, sociological and other areas, depending on the economy of the region. And in the management structure of regions, cities, there should be prognostic units. The issues of scientific forecasting in our country should be addressed at the state level by our entire community.

In conclusion, it should be noted that today's schoolchildren will have to predict, create new technologies, use them in the sixth technological mode, therefore, without reorienting the entire education system to a new level of technological life in everyday life, without a general rise in the cultural level of all strata of our society, technological progress will not will give the expected effect.

LITERATURE

1. Averbukh V. M. An integrated approach to forecasting in a research and production association // All-Union scientific and practical conference “Efficiency of associations and improvement of self-financing. Plenary session of the section Problems of improving cost accounting in associations”: abstracts. - L., 1979. - S. 138-139.

2. Actual problems of innovative development. Choice of innovation priorities: Proceedings of the meeting of the Interdepartmental Working Group within the framework of the IV National Congress "Priorities for Economic Development, Modernization and Technological Development of the Russian Economy" (Moscow, October 8, 2009): inform. bulletin. Issue. 11. - M., 2010. - S. 7-21.

3. Glazyev S. Yu. Choice of the future. - M.: Algorithm, 2005.

4. N. D. Kondratiev, Large cycles of conjuncture and the theory of foresight: selected works. - M.: Economics, 2002.

5. Kuzyk B. N. Innovative development of Russia: scenario approach. (Posted by kig at Jan 5, 2910 - 13:56).

6. Lvov D.S. Effectiveness of management of technical development. M.: Economics, 1990.

7. Scientific session of the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences "Scientific and technological forecast - the most important element of the development strategy of Russia" // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. - 2009. - T. 79. - No. 3. - S. 195-261

8. Forecast of scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation for the long term

perspective (until 2030) // Conceptual approaches, directions, forecast estimates and implementation conditions. - M.: RAN, 2008.

Averbukh Viktor Mikhailovich, GOU VPO

"Stavropol State University", Doctor of Technical Sciences, Senior Researcher

employee; head of the sector of scientific and technical information of the research department of SSU. Sphere of scientific interests - scientific and technical forecasting, scientific and technical information, history of science. [email protected]

In the next few decades, the world will change beyond recognition. And it will be ruled not by the one who has a lot of dollars, oil or gas, but by the one who knows how to produce biorobots or prolong life.
The reality around us will change radically in the next few decades. Without catching the "innovative wave", Russia will fall out of the ranks of world leaders for a long time, if not forever.
So, Anatoly Chubais recently informed the Russian public about the transition to the sixth technological mode - although in "narrow circles" they started talking about this back in the early 2000s.
Recall that the fifth order, the formation of which began in the mid-1980s, is silicon microelectronics, computer science, biotech, and genetic engineering. At the same time, the technological "wave" was rather weak - the scale of changes was radically inferior to the previous "peaks". Compare, for example, the thirty years between 1930 and 1960, and the same period between 1980 and 2010. In the first case in 30 years, nuclear weapons, atomic energy, the first computers and lasers (as well as a host of less conspicuous innovations) appeared, spacewalks were made, jet aircraft became widespread ...
There was no such tremendous progress between 1980 and 2010. That is why Russia/USSR, which almost missed the fifth technological order, did not fly out of the clip of world powers. The upcoming technological leap already at the start looks much more impressive, and therefore it will be deadly to miss it.
Let's look at the main directions of the sixth order.
First of all, this is the emergence of fundamentally new materials. For example, graphene, carbon and non-carbon nanotubes and composites based on them. The properties of next-generation materials are truly impressive. Say, "paper" made of many layers of graphene is twice as hard and ten times stronger in tension than steel. Self-healing materials will also spread - for example, getting rid of cracks when irradiated with ultraviolet radiation. A more active use of materials will begin, the density of which is comparable to the density of air or even less with quite decent mechanical characteristics - these are not only relatively traditional aerogels, but also “designs” (you can’t pick another word) on a metal basis.
In an area that boomed during the previous technological leap - electronics - a revolution is inevitable. Silicon technology has already approached its theoretical limit, and Moore's law, along with the silicone-based megahertz race, will inevitably sink into oblivion. However, silicon has an alternative - first of all, optical processors (more precisely, "hybrid" optoelectronic devices).
Robotics related to electronics/optoelectronics is also undergoing a period of extremely rapid progress. Although full-fledged artificial intelligence will remain an unattainable dream for the foreseeable future, robotic systems are getting smarter fast enough to be widely used. So, in the military field, experiments to create UAVs with a high degree of autonomy have already gone quite far. Another delayed effect of the electronic boom is the appearance of more or less practical walking mechanisms, indispensable where hypertrophied patency is required. In the "mechanical" part, extremely rapid progress in the field of creating exoskeletons, which have already moved from the pages of fantasy into harsh reality, is linked to them. And the emergence of new materials opens up non-trivial possibilities here too (with the help of nanotube fibers, among other things, it is possible to create artificial muscles with an impressive “power density”).
Communication with the wiser optoelectronic counterparts promises to become much more dense due to the rapid progress in the field of brain research and technologies for reading its activity. First of all, this allows you to create fundamentally new “machine-brain” interfaces. Computer games and non-computer toys with elementary “brain” control are already a reality, and cars with “mental” control are being tested. Similar technologies will lead to significant advances in the field of prosthetics. By the way, this may turn out to be useful for quite healthy people - as experiments show, the exceptionally high adaptability of the human brain allows you to control additional mechanical hands instead of the usual two.
Electronics in the field of robotics is gradually crossed with biotechnology. "Animats" are already moving around the laboratories - robots with a brain based on living neurons, for example, rat ones (even at the beginning of the "zero" set of these neurons quite tolerably controlled the flight on the Raptor computer simulator). In fact, we are witnessing "cyborgization", which is developing in two directions - both along the path of partial "mechanization" of Homo sapiens, and along the path of creating "animats".
The reverse side of this process is the expansion of the ability to control biological objects - from remotely controlled beetles acting as microdrones to US infantrymen. Last but not least, the ubiquitous DARPA promises helmets with ultrasonic transcranial stimulation devices that allow you to arbitrarily activate the desired parts of the brain, suppressing fear, pain, the desire to take a nap on duty, or, conversely, hypervigilance syndrome. The possibilities of “chemical” manipulations with the brain are also expanding (neuropharmacology is rapidly progressing).
In the field of biotechnology itself, progress is also very fast. Thus, a transition has already been made from traditional genetic modifications to the creation of organisms with a completely artificial genome (the first such bacterium already lives in laboratory Petri dishes). Semi-synthetic chromosomes are introduced into the cells of more complex, eukaryotic organisms - yeast. Advances in the deciphering of the genome make it possible to move on to more “individualized” medicine and “preventive” treatment of genetically determined diseases. Growing new organs from patient cells is also an area of active development. In reality, artificially grown heart, liver, teeth, brain tissues, etc. already exist. Promising donors may be "chimeric" organisms. Another application of the same technology is test-tube meat (the first sample of "artificial" pork was obtained in 2009).
In a sense, regenerative medicine competes with organ growing - stem cell injections, for example, are used to repair the cornea. The expectations of SENS participants (the Cambridge project "Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence"), promising that in 20 years people will stop dying of natural death thanks to a set of new biotechnologies, look clearly overstated, but a noticeable extension of life can become a reality quite soon. foreseeable future.
Not far off is the revolution in "aerospace". Now hypersonic technologies are developing quite rapidly - for example, hypersonic ramjet engines (scramjet engines) capable of accelerating a flying car to 17 speeds of sound are demonstrating significant success. Among other things, they are capable of radically facilitating the launch of the payload into space, lifting it and dispersing it to 2/3 of the first space velocity in a much more economical mode than traditional chemical rocket engines. Of the "extraatmospheric" technologies, one can note the rapid progress in the field of electric rocket (plasma and ion) engines. Space nuclear technologies that have been “hung” for several decades are also being revived. Laser rocket engines (with remote energy supply) are no longer purely theoretical designs.
Powerful lasers over the past couple of decades have gone from monstrous “devices” using aggressive and expensive chemicals to an order of magnitude more compact and easy-to-use “tools”. A related direction is microwave emitters. Both microwaves and lasers have long been used in industry and communications, and will be used even more actively in the future. Wireless power transmission based on laser or microwave technologies is also moving into practice. In addition, laser thermonuclear fusion is one of the most promising ways to a full-fledged fusion.
Finally, which is important for Russia, the traditional carbon energy within the framework of the sixth order will noticeably lose ground. There will be an increase in the share of atomic energy - primarily due to "brought to mind" fast neutron reactors. Alternative energy will also increase its share - for example, until recently, the efficiency of solar batteries did not reach 10%, and now batteries with an efficiency close to 40% are already appearing on the market. At the same time, the future of solar energy demonstrates a bizarre "syncretism" of several technological directions at once - in particular, successful experiments are being carried out to create "nanostructured" batteries using genetically programmed viruses.
The possibilities of energy storage will also expand - so far we are talking primarily about hydrogen energy and lithium-ion batteries, the capacity of which is growing very quickly (new technologies open up the possibility of an approximately tenfold increase in capacity). In the future, they may be replaced by batteries on a different basis - for example, very unconventional magnesium-sulphur or lithium-sulphur batteries.
The possibilities of energy transfer will also increase. For example, electrical cables made of carbon nanotubes are comparable in strength to metal wire, but six times lighter. In terms of specific conductivity, nanotube conductors are far ahead of copper and silver.
In general, in the coming decades, with the transition to the sixth technological order, the world will change in much the same way as it changed between 1940 and 1970. In Russia, the share of technologies of the fifth order is approximately 10% (in the West 30-40%), the fourth - 50%, the third - 30%.
Technological order is one of the terms of the theory of scientific and technological progress (STP).
The world owes the appearance of this concept to the scientist-economist Nikolai Kondratiev. He held a responsible post in the Provisional Government of Kerensky, and then headed the famous Moscow Market Institute. Studying the history of capitalism, Kondratiev came to the idea of the existence of large - lasting 50-55 years - economic cycles, which are characterized by a certain level of development of productive forces ("technological order, cycle"). The beginning of each cycle is characterized by the rise of the economy, while the end is characterized by crises, followed by the stage of transition of the productive forces to a higher level of development.
Based on this and other theories, Russian economists developed the concept of technological modes. In the early 1990s, Dmitry Lvov and Sergei Glazyev proposed the concept of "technological mode" as a set of technologies characteristic of a certain level of production development, and identified five already implemented modes. Each such cycle begins when a new set of innovations is available to manufacturers. The foundations of the subsequent technological order are born, as a rule, even during the heyday of the previous, and sometimes the previous previous order.
The criterion for attributing production to a certain technological mode is the use in this production of technologies inherent in this mode, or technologies that ensure the production of products that, in terms of their technical or physical and chemical characteristics, can correspond to the products of this mode.

The first technological order(1770-1830) - The first industrial revolution. It was based on new technologies in the textile industry, the use of water energy, which led to the mechanization of labor and the beginning of mass production.
Leading countries: Great Britain, France, Belgium.
The second technological order(1830-1880) is also called the "Age of Steam".
It was characterized by the accelerated development of railway and water transport based on steam engines, the widespread introduction of steam engines in industrial production.
Leading countries: Great Britain, France, Belgium, Germany, USA.
Third technological order(1880-1930) was called the "Age of Steel" (Second Industrial Revolution).
It is based on the use of electrical energy in industrial production, the development of heavy engineering and the electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel. Many discoveries in the field of chemistry. Radio communication and telegraph were introduced. Automobile. There were large firms, cartels, syndicates, trusts. The market was dominated by monopolies. The concentration of banking and financial capital began.
Leading countries: Germany, USA, Great Britain, France, Belgium, Switzerland, the Netherlands.
Fourth technological order(1930-1970), the so-called "Age of Oil".
It is characterized by the further development of energy with the use of oil and oil products, gas, communications, new synthetic materials. The period of mass production of cars, tractors, aircraft, various types of weapons, consumer goods. The widespread use of computers and software products. The use of atomic energy for military and peaceful purposes. Conveyor technologies are becoming the basis of mass production. Formation of transnational and international companies that make direct investments in the markets of various countries.
Leading countries: USA, Western Europe, USSR.
Fifth technological order(1970-2010). - technologies used in the microelectronics industry, computing, fiber-optic technology, software, telecommunications, robotics, gas production and processing, provision of information services; production based on the use of biotechnology, space technology, chemistry of new materials with desired properties.
There is a transition from disparate firms to a single network of large and small companies connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close interaction in the field of technology, product quality control, and innovation planning.
Today the world is on the threshold of the sixth technological mode. Its contours are just beginning to take shape in the developed countries of the world.
Sixth technological order- these are nanotechnologies (nanoelectronics, molecular and nanophotonics, nanomaterials and nanostructured coatings, optical nanomaterials, nanoheterogeneous systems, nanobiotechnologies, nanosystem technology, nanoequipment), cellular technologies, technologies used in genetic engineering, hydrogen energy and controlled thermonuclear reactions, as well as to create artificial intelligence and global information networks - the synthesis of achievements in these areas should lead to the creation, for example, of a quantum computer, artificial intelligence and, ultimately, provide access to a fundamentally new level in the systems of government, society, and the economy.
Forecasters believe that while maintaining the current pace of technical and economic development, the sixth technological order in the developed countries of the world will actually come in 2014 (!) - 2018, and will enter the phase of maturity in the 2040s. At the same time, in 2020-2025, a new scientific, technical and technological revolution will take place, the basis of which will be developments that synthesize the achievements of the above-mentioned basic areas. There are grounds for such predictions. In 2010, the share of the productive forces of the fifth technological order in the most developed countries averaged 60%, the fourth - 20%, and the sixth - about 5%. Obviously, the ratio of the share of technological modes in the country's economy as a whole determines the degree of its development, internal and external stability. Unfortunately, the initiative in the implementation of the Sixth Order was unequivocally seized by the United States. Individual leading works in the countries of the post-Soviet space cannot compete with this array.
For reflection:
The opinion of Vladimir Lepsky, chief researcher of the Russian Academy of Sciences, president of the Innovative Development Club, is interesting, who believes: “If you cannot catch up, you must get ahead ...”. He expressed the idea of moving to the Seventh technological order: “The sixth order implies the production of technologies, and the Seventh should be understood as the production of people capable of creating technologies, organizing living conditions and forms of consciousness.”
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From the 6th technological order - to the unknown space 7th
We live in the times of the 5th technological mode, which, thanks to the successful inflating of the financial bubble in the 70s, did not completely replace the 4th mode, but superimposed on it. Therefore, according to some economic theories, the 4th and 5th modes are a single whole. However, we cannot ignore their significant differences, both economic: after all, in the 70s there was a noticeable economic decline, which was replaced by a new upsurge - and technological.
Recall, by the way, that the technological order includes by no means those technologies that have been invented or tested in practice by now - the logic of scientific research and inventions is not subject to the economy! No, the way is determined by those inventions that entered the daily life of society and became the foundation of the economy, forming powerful basic technological chains. So, we see technologies of the 4th mode everywhere around us: thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants, thermal neutron nuclear power plants, internal combustion engines, motor vehicles and jet aircraft, chemical fuel rockets, panel houses, radio, television and much more. We also see technologies of the 5th order around us: microcircuits, personal computers, solar energy, mobile communications, satellites for communication, navigation and cartography, light space probes on ion engines, lasers, computer networks, industrial robots and much more.
But the technologies of the 6th order exist by no means only in the imagination of science fiction writers - most of these technologies are already available. It's just that they are not introduced into the economy, do not form its basis, and therefore do not catch the eye. But we can, seeing the ways of development of technologies, try to predict which of them will soon become vital to humanity and therefore will inevitably form the basis of the 6th order.
Many futurologists, speaking of the 6th techno-structure, mention the tetrad “bio, nano, info, cogno”. But this tetrad, although it sounds beautiful, consists of very heterogeneous elements. Biotechnologies are developing very intensively - it is not for nothing that they say that the 21st century will be the “century of biology”. Advances in biophysics and genetics make it possible to manipulate living organisms at the molecular and atomic level, which opens up truly immense possibilities for us. In fact, changing the genome is what nanotechnologies are, that is, technologies for changing substances on the scale of atoms and molecules. Indeed, DNA has nanoscale, and genetic technologies are engaged in its direct change. It is in biology that real, and not declared, nanotechnologies are very promising. The practical applications of the latest biotechnologies are also obvious: nanomedicine, heredity management, agriculture (where the problem of hunger, as we found out, is very acute!), As well as closed life support systems for the colonization of other planets. These closed coolants can be worked out in new high-tech cities - ecopolises, as well as in high-tech villages - ecovillages.
Where else are nanotechnologies promising? First of all, when developing new materials: stronger, more flexible, more durable. New materials will improve the efficiency of almost all existing technologies, as well as create new ones: for example, heavy-duty single-stage, and therefore reusable rockets or space elevators. This will significantly reduce the cost of putting cargo into orbit.
Consider now information technology. This term has two meanings. First, the production, storage and processing of information, that is, programming. Secondly, the production of "iron" for information processing.
Programming is a very specific technology. In fact, the program is an extension of the human mind, because, as we have already said, the mind is the ability to process information as matter. But is man ready for unlimited expansion of his mind? In this way, with this biological, cultural and religious base - obviously not. All the predictions of "transhumanists" that a person is about to become super-strong and super-intelligent are overly optimistic. Perhaps he will become super-strong (more on this below), but why would he become super-smart? If we take the average uncle Vasya from the next entrance, then nothing in his upbringing or life experience set such goals for him. And the intellectual elite does not need excessive intelligence either - it is already an elite. For the same reason, global research in the field of "artificial intelligence", even if they can lead to serious results in expanding the human mind (which, generally speaking, is not true due to problems with the element base, see below), is unlikely to be in demand.
What remains is the development of material information technologies. The explosive growth of these technologies was a sign of the 5th order - but Moore's law, according to which the power of processors doubles every 2 years, cannot last forever. The law will cease to work even not when the size of the elements of electronic circuits becomes comparable to the size of an atom, but even earlier - due to an increase in entropy, which means overheating of any information processing devices. According to forecasts, this will happen as early as 2026, so the miniaturization of information technology will be limited.
What's next? Development of means of communication? But mobile satellite communication in this sense is an ideal, nothing new can be invented. Further - only a change in the element base. Apparently, the era of universal personal computers is coming to an end and the era of specialized solutions is coming. Smart and radiation-resistant space probes will crawl all over the planets of the solar system, helping people. “Smart houses” are already being created with “smart” walls, doors, windows, batteries, stoves and refrigerators, with computers stitched everywhere, skillfully regulating the living environment for their residents. "Smart houses" are most effective in "smart cities" - futuropolices, in which new technologies are most actively introduced. Ecopolises are a special case of futuropolices.
And microchips will be sewn into the residents themselves, and devices will be hung on them to expand their capabilities. So there will be cyborgs - hybrids of man and machine. They will be stronger, faster, more agile than ordinary people. They will be able to control machines with a single glance or even an effort of thought. Of course, machines sewn into a protein organism are more efficient and safer when they themselves have a protein base. Biocomputers can replace "iron" machines in many areas. Apparently, the principles of warfare will seriously change. At the first stage, remote-controlled robots will fight among themselves, and at the second, armies of cyborgs will go into battle to establish complete control over the territory.
The last component of the triad remains - "cogno-", cognitive technologies. But the psychological technologies of cognition, this "programming without computers" has always been developing - just remember yoga, Sufi practices and the system of science that has existed from the Middle Ages to the present day. In our time, programming on computers has only been added to it, that's all.
But that feature of the 6th technological order, about which most futurologists forgot to mention - a sharp change in the structure of energy. The era of cheap hydrocarbons is coming to an end. The era of expensive energy is coming. First of all, it will be nuclear energy - before the creation of workable thermonuclear reactors, there are still 50 years. But revolutionary changes are possible in nuclear energy associated with more compact and powerful fast neutron reactors. Yes, they are more dangerous than ordinary ones - but computerization and remote control will reduce the danger to a minimum - computers are more reliable than people. BN reactors will make it possible to create a network of small nuclear power plants for the development of the Arctic and Antarctic. Nuclear trains and nuclear floating cities will appear, and spaceships powered by nuclear engines or ion engines with nuclear reactors will fly to the Moon, Mars and Venus. In addition, BN reactors will make it possible to implement a closed nuclear fuel cycle, minimizing nuclear waste.
Other types of alternative energy will also develop rapidly. Solar and wind energy, although they are inefficient, will fill all the niches available to them on Earth and in space (in space, the niche of solar batteries is from Mercury to asteroids). Their low power and dependence on the weather will be compensated by connecting to computerized networks, allowing you to quickly transfer energy from one area to another. Solar batteries, windmills, small nuclear power plants and small hydroelectric power plants will be connected to these networks, reducing the burden on the environment to a minimum.
So, as we can see, the technologies of the 6th order almost do not include space technologies. In the 6th way, astronautics will not yet become the driving force of the economy. At the same time, almost all the technologies of the 6th stage that we have listed (even genetic engineering for long-distance flights) accelerate the development of astronautics. This means that in the 6th technological mode, funding for astronautics should only grow - the development of new technologies associated with this will pay off many times over. Most likely, this will continue to be done primarily by states, although the niche of space businessmen in Earth orbit and on the Moon will expand.
What will be the technologies of the 7th order, which will come around in the second half of the 21st century? Have mercy, no one can know this until even the 6th way has come! But from the most general considerations, it is clear that thermonuclear energy will appear in the 7th mode, and the total energy consumption of mankind will increase dramatically. This is where astronautics will become necessary: the extraction of helium-3 on the Moon and Uranus, and orbital solar power plants, and the transfer of too energy-intensive industry into space. And if before that, in half a century of domination of the 6th order, humanity does not develop space technologies, it will begin to have serious problems.
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No one has yet moved to the sixth technological order. It is currently in the development stage. The sixth technological order implies absolute customization of production. In general, the concept and ideology of the sixth technological order appeared in Germany. Conventionally, when buying a Japanese car, there is a choice of four basic trim levels and the possibilities for individual customization are minimal. And, for example, a German car has much higher customization. As a result, it will always be more expensive. Therefore, for the Germans, Industry 4.0 is a story about how, by deepening the personalization of the services provided and the products sold, to remain price competitive, with fixed configurations and mass production, that is, to do it just as cheaply.
What will car repair look like in the future? Suppose a car has a broken fender, the owner goes to a service center that has a 3D printer and access to the corresponding 3D models of individual parts, and the new fender is printed on the spot. Delivery, intermediaries are leaving, the time and cost of the final service are being reduced. Over time, the car will be sold not as a product, but as a service.
Or take pharmaceuticals. Today it is a story about the production of a chemical substance in large factories, from which mass medicines are then obtained. In the near future, drugs will be grown in biofactories and sharpened for specific viruses and diseases. At the next stage of development, the patient will come to the hospital, take tests and, right on the spot, an individual drug will be prepared for him. Pharmaceuticals will go from being a drug industry to a service, as it is the service that will be sold. This will be Industry 4.0. And robots are only part of this overall picture.
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"The Fourth Great Industrial Revolution"
Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a direct line with the people, spoke out that Russia needs to develop a "digital economy" - and, judging by the hype that immediately began around this phrase, this "digital economy" may well claim the status of another national idea. The economic observer of "BUSINESS Online" Alexander Vinogradov deals with the issue of technological revolutions and the "Solow paradox".
IT SEEMS THAT YOU SHOULD STRETCH YOUR HAND AND THE FUTURE WILL COME
Sometimes the story itself leads to a certain topic.
Six months ago, I spoke on the radio, where, together with a presenter and a colleague from one of the committees of the Federation Council, I discussed the transformation of the economy and, in particular, the sharp growth of various types of businesses based on the uber model (the so-called “uberization of the economy”). A month ago, I privately wrote a short review of a certain text devoted to aspects of the economy, which could, let's say, become the basis of the world's victorious fourth industrial revolution (hereinafter - the 4th IR). The ideas expressed in it were rather curious, but they obviously relied on the axiomatics of the 4th PR, and if you remove it, these ideas hung in the air, as was indicated. Finally, two weeks ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a direct line with the people, spoke out that Russia needs to develop a “digital economy” - and, judging by the immediate hype that began around this phrase, this “digital economy” may well claim the status another national idea. All this was superimposed on a rather sharp jump in the values of the main cryptocurrencies, which spurred interest in the whole topic of the new industry, new money and the new economy as a whole. In general, it seems that stretch out your hand - and the future will come. Is it really? And what happens to the breakthrough into a brighter tomorrow?
It should be said right away that the vocabulary used by the apologists of the 4th PR immediately causes a certain skepticism. First, the very word "revolution" implies a rather sharp qualitative change in the situation. A sort of "wow" - and everything becomes different. This does not look like the truth, if only because the world economy is very inert. Secondly, the postulation of the 4th PR implies the presence of the 3rd, 2nd and even 1st PR, and in relation to the first two it is recognized that they lasted for decades, but in this case there can be no question of a revolution, since , due to the duration of the process, these changes are evolutionary. Thirdly, I was extremely surprised to hear about the 4th PR at all, since just recently there was a lot of noise around the 3rd. This, of course, meets the criteria of a "revolution", but what - has the future already come and the 3rd PR has fully entered into its own rights?
Everything turned out to be both simpler and more difficult at the same time. The very topic of the 3rd PR was introduced by the American economist and environmentalist Jeremy Rifkin, who published a book with the same title at the end of 2010 - although, I must say, here he is secondary to the American futurologist Alvin Toffler and his already half-forgotten book "The Third Wave" published back in 1980. Nevertheless, Rifkin's book made a splash. Rifkin was immediately accepted by Obama and was named to the US Industrialization Commission. Rifkin's work inspired Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, who ordered that the book be urgently translated into Chinese and then sent a quarter of a million copies to Chinese leaders at various levels. In addition, Rifkin became an EU consultant on the Industrial Revolution. In general, the award found a hero, and quite deservedly so.
The situation changed in 2016, after on January 20 the famous Swiss economist Klaus Martin Schwab, founder and permanent president of the World Economic Forum in Davos, spoke at this very forum and proclaimed the upcoming 4th PR without hesitation. Accordingly, Rifkin, as the ideologist of a “bright future,” had to make room on Olympus. Worse, as a result of Schwab's speech (having more solid weight than Rifkin), the whole PR methodology (already rather dubious) "went" and had to be hastily corrected.
Thus, the following areas of development within the framework of the 3rd PR were initially assumed:
Transition to renewable energy sources;
Localization of electricity production, each building is its generator;
Total energy saving and zeroing of emissions of all types and varieties;
Electric and hydrogen transport;
Composite materials and 3D printing of anything and everything;
The arrival of a sort of "distributed capitalism" - with the reduction of intermediaries between the producer and the consumer, the mixing of these roles.
As you can see, the proposed changes are quite large; let's note it. At the same time, the 4th PR in the current edition promises us, among other things, a sharp increase in the use of "big data", the development of the "Internet of Things" and augmented reality against the backdrop of the spread of a distributed registry (blockchain) and the same 3D printing, and an award in the end should be a sharp increase in labor productivity. But that's not all. The 3rd PR had to be noticeably cut in order to preserve the integrity of the view and, even more ridiculous, sent to the past: according to the most current methodology, the 3rd PR is now understood only and exclusively as the "digital revolution" - three decades of mass distribution of computers and networks .
BETWEEN INVENTION AND EVERYDAY USE IS A CHAPSEL UNDER THE NAME "INTRODUCTION"
As a matter of fact, already such a cursory digression into the history of the issue shows a fair amount of dubiousness of all these concepts. Again, this is not new: back in 1987, the famous American economist Robert Solow (Nobel Prize winner of the same year) noted that “computers are visible everywhere except in labor productivity statistics”, a statement that later became known as the “Solow paradox”. The reason for his skepticism is understandable - at least a decade and a half before his observation, spending on IT grew by 15 - 20% every year, while the annual growth in labor productivity during this period averaged 1.5 - 1.6% , which is an order of magnitude weaker.
Let's reiterate this key point. So, technology is invented, technology is introduced (that is, there is someone who pays for it!), and thus those who work in this area have money for the development and improvement of this technology, but for labor productivity in the economy in Overall, these actions have little impact. Natural questions arise: who financed this IT splendor, did he get it back and what exactly did he get in the end? The answer to this question is known: the main driver for the development of IT technologies was the financial and banking sector (very rich - on a planetary scale), which in return received the opportunity for a powerful expansion of its presence in the economy; I note that it is probably impossible to answer whether these investments paid off or not. Another thing is important - the technology has risen on the money of financiers and is firmly integrated into the world society. The whole range of other "folk" use of computers and networks - from Prince of Persia and Digger to Telegram and Youtube - is already a cherry on the cake.
Accordingly, it is precisely through this prism that various “revolutions” should be considered. We read with interest about new inventions, they appear in large numbers, but between the invention and everyday use there is an abyss called "implementation". It, in turn, is determined solely by solvent demand and nothing else - and this is where the fundamental problem lies in the path of any novelty that is part of the paradigm of the next "revolution" or not included in it. A good example here is that same 3D printing. Let me remind you that the current noise (already rather subsided, I must say) around it began around 2007, exactly a decade ago. And where is the exhaust? 3D printing, as it was, has remained a purely niche toy, despite the huge initial attention. The reason is simple - there is not enough demand, as it was not in 1984, when the first 3D printer was invented.
The situation is similar with another fetish of the present time - robotization. A modern industrial robot, generally speaking, is not fundamentally different from the digging stick described in the history textbook of primitive times. It is a tool created by man to solve his problems, and the process of creating them is continuous and iterative - old, crude tools are used to make newer and more accurate ones, and so ad infinitum. Accordingly, there can be no question of any revolution in this regard, and the question comes down to a simple one - whether the robot will pay off or not. And it’s not at all a fact that it will pay off - not only I put robots, but also my competitors, and the demand for products does not change or even falls, because the robot, for example, will allow you to fire unnecessary workers. As a result, the cost of labor decreases, and the robot may already be uncompetitive. Let me remind you that about a quarter of the world's textiles are produced in Bangladesh using a half-century-old technology referred to as "woman + sewing machine." Robots in this area simply have nothing to do, the available human labor is so cheap.
Exactly the same situation with "big data". I remember very well the buzz around IT in the 90s and the absolutely insane bubble in this market (P/E for Yahoo shares over 1200!), which ended in a crash. Then came the fashion for cloud computing and thin clients, now (more precisely, for four years already) it is big data as a range of technologies for working with huge data arrays. No, of course, there is interest, there are venture investors (hoping to hit the jackpot), and one can only rejoice for those who work in this area, as well as for those who are now actively digging the latest IT squeak, namely, neural networks . But the question of demand was and remains relevant for these areas of activity, and, say, it may well turn out that the software and hardware complex of an unmanned vehicle, consisting of a trained neural network as software and a processor and a set of lidars as AO, will still be more expensive than a human driver .
THE ESSENCE HERE IS EXCLUSIVELY IN PSYCHOLOGY
There is, however, one thing that can really take off, takes off and has already taken off in this entire spectrum of “new technologies”. These are p2p services. Uber-like services in taxis, Blablacar in intercity travel, Booking.com in travel, even peer-to-peer lending platforms, especially in collaboration with the traditional banking sector, which, say, provides customers who fail the bank's own scoring procedures. Here we can also note the business model of TKS Bank with its rejection of the usual format of branches, that is, savings on them. The general meaning here is that the savings go to the destruction of the usual intermediaries (who quit and enter the labor market, pushing it down), they are replaced by one or another IT platform built on the basis of an already created and extremely inexpensive IT infrastructure to use. But it doesn't amount to a whole industrial revolution.
The point here, in fact, is exclusively in psychology. Let me remind you that in less than two months the current global depression will be 10 years old. Yes, exactly in August 2007, the first funds from those who were engaged in investments in subprime mortgages “went” to the USA. Ten years. It is, generally speaking, hard to live in conditions of pale anemic growth, and even against the backdrop of growing debts. Accordingly, in society there is an unformulated request for a miracle, for a magic wand, which, being caught by a specially trained cat, will make the very “wow” - and a bright future will come abruptly.
Unfortunately, it is not. Technologies will continue to be invented, the most cost-effective ones will be introduced, the picture of the world will slowly change. But breakthroughs are not to be expected. In 1985, a famous movie envisioned flying cars three decades later as the norm. Alas. Didn't take off.
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Living design.
Investing in a person, the education system of a new level.
New environmental management (high eco-technologies).
Robotics, artificial intelligence, flexible systems of "unmanned" production.
Laser technology.
Compact and ultra-efficient energy, shift away from hydrocarbons, decentralized, "smart" energy supply networks.
Closing technologies in the former industries (fund-, energy- and labor-saving).
New types of transport (heavy load, speed, range, low cost), combined transport systems.
Manor urbanization of the "fabric" type, city-polises.
New medicine (health development, health restoration).
High humanitarian technologies, increasing the abilities of a person and organizations.
Designing the future and managing it.
Technologies of assembly and destruction of social subjects.

Incidentally, for the Russian Federation - the prospect is quite real. Came to power in 1991-1993. macaques defeated the Russian Fourth way, destroyed the islands of the Fifth and strangled the sprouts of the Sixth - for all this developed in the Soviet Union. The tricolor "market" monkeys in the 90s blew the development of the Fifth way, because they were busy dividing the Soviet inheritance, shooting the parliament, sawing off / kickbacks in the war in Chechnya, building churches, etc. Putinism, having replaced Yeltsinism, did nothing to prevent the further backlog of the Russian Federation, replacing development with raw material games and beautiful draping of ruins with the help of PR.

The Russian macaques have destroyed and are destroying all the conditions for the country's breakthrough into the Sixth techno-structure. Who else needs to be told about what they are doing with science, with highly organized industry, astronautics and the aviation industry? With education and culture? With human capital? Monkeys under the double-headed eagle brought complex technical and social systems to complete degradation. They are now finishing off the most high-tech part of the industry - the defense industry, already ordering weapons in the West. They gave rise to a completely retrograde, stagnant and incapable of development state. They introduced an idiotic tax system that completely destroys industrial and scientific and technological development.

With the permission of the authorities, the Kremlin's "Silicon Valley" is being turned into a territory where all taxes (including VAT) have been abolished, and only mandatory insurance premiums of 14% have been left. While other enterprises in the rest of the country will pay 32%. Also, in Skolkovo, special units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Federal Migration Service, the Federal Tax Service, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and Rospotrebnadzor will operate independent of local authorities and reporting directly to the head structure.

That is, it is unequivocally recognized that both having a tax system and the existing state apparatus in the Russian Federation are deadly for innovative development. And that it is necessary to change both, for a start using Skolkovo as an experimental training ground.

But will it work? The special taste of the situation is given by the fact that in Putin's "Strategy-2020" it is written in black and white: the tax system of the Russian Federation should basically remain the same. That is, hostile to both industry and knowledge-intensive business. Truly, Professor Malinetsky is right when he speaks of progressive schizophrenia in the highest hierarchy of Eref.

Finally, look at our map of the Sixth Techno-Order and compare its key areas with the five short priorities (mostly of yesterday) that D. Medvedev put forward. Do we need more proof of the Kremlin's dementia? By the way, nowhere in the official documents of the Russian Federation is there a clear task - the transition to the Sixth Way. The problem is not even recognized by the current "stabilidiots" in power.

They believe in the omnipotence of PR propaganda so much that even the West's breakthroughs into the Future strive to be declared simply propaganda bluffs. Shale gas? Like, it's nonsense. Light shuttle launch? Nothing, they say, terrible.

In other words, there is every chance to "come to Honduras" and fall behind.

What does it mean? At least - a dull raw material vegetation. Erefiya, from where all more or less qualified people are forced to flee, because they cannot find a use for themselves. At the maximum output - collapse, disaster. And even a war with a guaranteed defeat.

Hell, but the human and resource-saving technologies of the 6th mode can really save us by compensating for the wild shortage of youth, labor and investment!

If we compare the current Russian Federation with an airplane in the air, then we have before us the scene of a severe disaster. Imagine: the engines of a flying airliner stall. All. Power is turned off. The hydraulics die, thanks to which you can move the steering wheels. In the cockpit - random, in general, people, by no means flyers by nature and training, between whom - there is still a struggle for the helm.

It is already clear that the rampant, thievish, monstrously stupid and incompetent system of Yeltse-Putinism is powerless to ensure the transition to a new civilization. That this requires completely different people and a different state.

It is already obvious that the damned system of cuts and kickbacks (endemic corruption) is destroying opportunities for innovation in the bud. After all, they reduce the costs of the state, corporations and society as a whole to ensure their activities. But cutting costs is the death of a bureaucracy that needs the opposite. For the greater the costs, the more opportunities to take bribes, to bite off the public pie. The stronger the control of citizens and interested users over the state machine (namely, where true Development leads) - the worse the condition for kleptocracy. It is already clear that the current System is ready to bury alive in the ground those who can really reduce the consumption of heat and fuel, who reduce the cost of construction by several times, who will eliminate the need for huge annual expenses for the repair of everything and everyone. The system has become a monster in the way of our national development. Bureaucracy, only for 2000-2008. increased by another quarter of a million "heads", turned into a black hole, into a huge cancerous tumor of corruption. And this monster will fight to maintain his power and the right to devour the public pie to the last. Until a complete technological and humanitarian catastrophe on Russian soil.

Even liberals are talking about this, an example of which is E. Gontmakher. That's just the recipes they offer awful.

An attempt to ensure the development of the country (“modernization” in the current political slang) is doomed to failure in advance.

As we have already established, the mere introduction of freedom of elections (the new 90s) will only lead to chaos in governance and hasten the death of the country. Moreover, there will be no change of elite here. Everything will be decided only by money, and they will remain with all the same kleptocrats and "trophies". The active unwillingness of big business to invest in innovation and in general in scientific and technological progress is recognized by the deputy head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation Vladislav Surkov himself.

In the conditions of a host of terrible problems that have surrounded us, with the current degradation and horrendous social stratification, a dictatorship will still be established in one or two cycles of free elections. Imagine a freely elected president of the Russian Federation "after Putin." Hemmed in by terrible problems, torn apart by clans and parties, forced to solve outwardly mutually exclusive tasks, surrounded by total corruption and sabotage by the old "elite", such a democratic president will inevitably introduce a state of emergency, a special order of government.

So, it is necessary to design in advance the Dictatorship of Salvation and Development. Oprichnina-21. Let's take off the rose-colored glasses from our own eyes. Not a single country has emerged from severe crises with the help of liberal democracy. Let us leave the tales of the demon-pants to INSOR. Ahead - either death, or at least a twenty-year dictatorship of the salvation and purification of the country.

What can bring us salvation? New five-year development plans. indicative planning. Designing the future with clear maps. Smart mobilization of resources and people. Creation of the Agency for Advanced Development and a network of future cities, the National Innovation System and healthy competition in scientific and technological development. Development (under a dictatorship!) of grassroots democracy - self-government of municipalities and labor collectives. "Too many people" with the creation of social lifts for the most honest, smart and competent. We must again put the country at the desk (not shunning even coercion), destroy the degenerate TV of racist times and their equally subhuman pop culture. We will have to restore the ethics of hard, creative work, the prestige of a strong family and motherhood. We are waiting for the "new 30s" - adjusted for the changed realities. As a matter of fact, it will be necessary to re-create the country and crystallize a new people to replace the rotten "scatterers" who have lost their passionarity.

And no matter how I am accused of totalitarianism, I will repeat my conclusion: only a new oprichnina will be able to cope with such a task. Deeply national, innovative and social. People's oprichnina.

It did not take long to wait for confirmation of the conclusions of Maxim Kalashnikov. Having eaten dozens of years, the white-blue-red dissipation predetermined the lack of time and the extreme severity of rescue measures at the time "after Putin-Medvedev." Don't believe? Listen to Professor Malinetsky again and read his report carefully. And make sure: the most critical decade of our history is coming. Without extra effort, we cannot escape death...

The fusion of applied science and technological audit, modern competence centers and Soviet experience will make it possible to shift industrial policy one and a half cycles forward. Alexei Petrov, executive director of Finval Engineering, and Alexei Ivanin, commercial director of the company, told Military Industrial Courier about what is missing for a breakthrough.

The 90s greatly battered the domestic instrument and machine tool industry, and other advanced industries. The civil aviation industry ekes out a miserable existence.

But the engineering industry of the military-industrial complex remains the backbone of the Russian economy. Its competitiveness, especially its growth rates, are due exclusively to high-tech and knowledge-intensive sectors.

- The corporation was given the task of setting up the production of a large-scale facility, for example, resuming the production of the Tu-160. The first actions of her leadership?

– When it comes to creating a production facility for a new product, the corporation's leaders are primarily faced with the task of competently organizing pre-project work, conducting technological preparation, and choosing a head production. It is clear that today none of the existing enterprises can produce such an aircraft. It is necessary to establish large-scale cooperation between factories. Considerable time has passed since the release of the last such machine, much has changed - enterprises participating in the production chain have closed or ended up abroad. Some of the technologies are most likely outdated, others are lost. First: you need to create a digital - 3D model of the product. A set of scanned drawings in a computer is the last century. We are talking specifically about a three-dimensional digital model in the collection. So that you can see the requirements for any of the parts and the manufacturing technology of each. Second: to organize the study of the implementation of the task.

The creation of such a production is a long process, it can take several years. An important issue is the choice of technology, the selection of equipment, and its manufacture. It often happens that standard machines do not fit, you need to order them, develop and manufacture tooling, which in itself is a long and expensive process. This will be followed by the supply of equipment, commissioning, testing of technology on a specific product and after that delivery in accordance with all the parameters that were previously set. In addition, it is necessary to carefully plan industrial cooperation.

Where is your place in this chain?

– When the production program appears, then our work begins. It is impossible to develop technology for unknown purposes and to what extent. When we solve a problem, we necessarily take into account the possibilities of cooperation between enterprises, the presence of competence centers in the holding or plans for their creation. In accordance with this, we develop a production technology, select equipment, tooling and tools, and develop requirements for personnel.

To carry out such a large-scale project, you need a structure that can guarantee the execution of the contract, when the contractor takes care of everything: technological and construction design, selection and purchase of equipment, tooling and tools, organization of the construction of the facility and control over its progress, installation and commissioning of equipment, etc. e. Any textbook on project management describes the advantages of EPCM contracts (EPCM from English engineering - engineering, procurement - supply, construction - construction, management - management): cost reduction, predictability of achieving the desired result, flexibility in the distribution of risks and responsibilities, individual approach to the customer.

- This is in the textbook, but how in our reality?

– The system is widely developed in the West and a little in our country – in industries that are largely integrated into the world: in energy and oil and gas production.

As for the enterprises of the defense complex and engineering in general, the problem is that in most cases the customer simply does not have the opportunity to conclude such a contract, since he works in financial and managerial regulations that do not allow him to fully invest in the project. Hence the problems. We also cannot be responsible for the entire project. The customer has an organization that is building the facility, but is not responsible for the supply of equipment, for training personnel and building an information corporate system.

- It turns out that there is no customer in the state?

- Not in the state, but in engineering. It exists in the state. When it comes to building a nuclear power plant, no one suggests building it in parts. The nuclear power plant is delivered on a turnkey basis.

- But nuclear power plants are also mechanical engineering ...

“You can swell one hundred billion, make the plant ideal, but it will be loaded by three percent, because it is included in cooperation with enterprises that have not been modernized in any way”

- This is an energy facility, from which an order for turbines and other equipment comes, that is, mechanical engineering acts as a supplier. But the project is managed by the energy company or its general contractor, who is responsible for ensuring that, according to the budget and deadlines, the facility is created and produces the required number of megawatts. Here the EPCM contract scheme works great, it needs to be extended to mechanical engineering. And this has been talked about for a long time.

The state should act as a competent customer. Not to find out from the heads of companies that carry out defense orders how much money is invested in their factories, but to ask how much it will cost to produce a tank. An engineering company will develop a production technology, select equipment and give its approximate cost. We add to it the costs of designing, modernizing production, scheduled repairs, and other related costs, then we divide the amount received by the number of orders and get the price of one. In fact, this is not the same as the cost of a tank at a given enterprise.

The challenge is to ensure the life cycle of the product. In the life cycle of a product, production is just a part - the most important, but no more. And design development, R&D, modernization of operated products and further disposal are financed at best in parts.

Initially, engineers develop the design of the product, then an engineering company or a technological institute enters the work, which develop technical and technological solutions for future production. Based on this information, design estimates are formed. After that, the data is provided to the construction company. We have it the other way around now. Funds are allocated for the construction part. This is the main difference. It is impossible to start building a plant until an engineering company or a technological institute creates a project, receives money for it, and passes the state examination together with the customer.

But organizational and technological design, which plays a crucial role, is not given sufficient attention at this stage. What is the result? A magnificent building was built, the most modern equipment was purchased, but there was not enough money and attention for a thorough organizational and technological design.

Why is it important? Any enterprise is tied to the territory where it is located. For example, if there are enough skilled workers in the region, in order to minimize the cost of purchasing equipment, we can make a project with the maximum possible use of universal machines. But there may be a completely different picture, and then you have to use unmanned technologies, because there is simply no one to supply universal equipment.

These and many other issues must be taken into account at the stage of pre-project work or, in modern terms, when conducting a technological audit of the project.

– How to achieve this?

- The most important thing is to include pre-project procedures in the regulations. This will create a quality plant. Here we can recall the Soviet experience - in the then practice of the concept of "technological audit" was not, but they operated with another - "technological design", which was an obligatory phase for any industrial enterprise. And this was financed in a regulated manner based on the volume of total capital investments in the project - exactly what is not there now.

Is it possible to return to this?

- You need to come back! If we are talking about the modernization of production, then it must necessarily be tied to the product that is supposed to be released. Otherwise, we can spend a lot of money, buy good machines and at the same time get a zero result. Because it may turn out that the required product cannot be made on these machines, or it is required to develop expensive equipment, and many circumstances not previously taken into account may also open up. As a result, either the product will not be produced at all, or its cost will become prohibitive. Therefore, we are constantly talking about the need for a clear regulation for carrying out work on technological audit and design. And then a high-quality project will be made with a normal feasibility study, which takes into account every step and all the costs of equipment, personnel, equipment, and so on.

We emphasize once again: we need a systemic order from society and the state. The country is participating in global competition, the world is moving from the fifth technological order, from paperless technology to the sixth - to deserted technology. Accordingly, those who do this first will be the undisputed leaders. And today more than half of our economy is still in the fourth dimension.

- And enterprises are run by people who come from the paradigm of the fourth order ...

- Exactly. We need to shift industrial policy one and a half cycles forward.

Who in the country can do this?

- Previously, the program of industrial policy was and was implemented in each sectoral ministry. Now there is only the Ministry of Industry and Trade, which cannot cover everything, and a certain vacuum appears. So it's up to business. Understanding is required from every corporation: it does not manage thousands of factories, but the production of specific products. It is from this that one should proceed, because the market should be offered a competitive product, and not information about how many factories and machine tools a manufacturer has.

- To this he can answer that he makes tanks that the Ministry of Defense requires, that’s why the demand ...

- So the fact of the matter is that they are not responsible for the tank, but for factories that do not understand what and why they produce. And at arbitrary cost.

But this is one side. Before talking about modernization at any enterprise, one must first understand what product is included in the production chain, in the interests of which product it is worth introducing innovations and how this will affect the enterprises included in the cooperation. You can swell one hundred billion, make the plant ideally modern, but it will be loaded by three percent, because it is included in cooperation with enterprises that have not been modernized in any way ...

Investments must be considered in a complex, so we are now talking about what corporate leaders need. There are many problems at the factories, but at the corporate level there are more of them precisely because there are many enterprises, they are different, their leaders hold different views and have different life experiences, the teams are well-established and also differ significantly in age and qualifications. And they need to be managed in the same way. And we propose to do this on the basis of the thesis that it is necessary to manage the production of a product, and not a specific plant. There is a director there, let him manage it.

The whole question is in the ability to correctly set tasks, ask the right questions to enterprises that are part of the corporation, and receive the right answers in a single format. And we are talking about technology audit again. What's the point if the audit at a hundred factories of one corporation is carried out by different organizations according to their own methods and each provides the results in its own form? On such a shaky basis, it is basically impossible to draw any conclusions, because there is no link to the final result.

Do you need a regulation?

- Exactly. Which clearly states: what is a technology audit, who has the right to perform it. And every auditor must be certified. Today, technological design can be carried out by anyone, for this even licenses are not needed and technical education is not necessary.

By the way, we can create any kind of regulatory documents, but the money for technological design or technological audit must be included in the budgets of corporations. For engineering, it is necessary to allocate money specifically to enterprises so that they can order engineering services on the side.

This will serve as the best incentive for the development of engineering companies. Now there is no corresponding line in the budget, and even if the head of the corporation wants to order such a service, he does not have the opportunity.

“And he starts looking for reserves?”

- He, for example, asks to carry out the design for free, including the cost of services, say, in the equipment that will be purchased as a result of the project. This distorts the market, so you can not do it. In construction, there are clear rules for paying for design work, and exactly the same rules should be adopted when forming the cost of pre-design work. You need a clear link to the estimated cost of the object, then you will understand why such money is requested.

So far, our enterprises are not ready to pay for this - they simply do not understand what they will really get. In addition, many managers do not know what engineering is, or think that it is only about the supply of equipment, and they believe that the Finval company is engaged only in this.

– How to manage modernization?

- The main point: when a corporation is requested by an enterprise for financial resources, a concept of upcoming changes should be drawn up. That is, it is necessary to convey to the corporation what kind of transformations are necessary, how they are planned to be carried out and for what. Modernization should begin primarily with the product, that is, with what the company plans to produce and in what volume. We have a successful track record of creating and defending such concepts.

Is this purely a financial document?

– Justification of investments cannot be made only on the basis of financial calculations. The concept should be based on technological development. It should go from the product, show that there is a clear and long-term demand in the market - only if such information is available, the document will be of interest to the investor.

– Creation of competence centers is now in vogue. In your opinion, do they really contribute to the modernization of the machine-building complex?

– We passionately advocate the creation of centers of excellence. The modern economy implies ensuring competition through the effective interaction of such centers with serial enterprises. But there are also reservations.

- For example, there is a cluster of enterprises that produce approximately the same products and are part of the same structure. The corporation receives a request for funding from them, and it turns out that they need to buy, say, one hundred identical machines, each costing two hundred million rubles. Here the question arises: is it really necessary to give each plant the requested funding, or is it worth creating a single center where there will be not one hundred, but ten such machines, and it will provide all enterprises with products of a specific range?

- The idea is sound.

“Ideally, such a center also works efficiently with orders, fulfills them efficiently and on time, and most importantly, it has up-to-date technological expertise, that is, it monitors market trends and replaces outdated technological processes with new ones in time. For example, if a center of competence is being created in the field of foundry production, then it must be an expert in this area. It is necessary to connect a scientific base to such a center of competence, the activities of which are aimed at advanced research and development that can outperform competitors. But it is in a narrow specialization, as mentioned above, in casting. This gives groundwork for export. Moreover, it is important to develop both military and peaceful topics. If this is casting, the enterprise can produce both guns and frying pans. You just need to add applied work in the field of science and you can enter world markets.

Are you talking about the realities of our day?

- It should be so, but today there is no single clear understanding in state structures that there is a center of competence. They still believe that this is just a set of machines that produce standard operations, standard products, and for the enterprise this is another opportunity to receive money from the state.

But the problem is that technologies are changing rapidly, and we advocate that competence centers not only have a set of machines, but also applied science without fail.

We are in favor of having such a composition of equipment and scientific activities in the competence centers that will really turn our country into a world leader in the field of production. With the introduction of modern technologies in competence centers, we will create self-sustaining and innovative products. Yes, at the initial stage it will be products for our factories, and in the future, the participation of competence centers in international exhibitions will raise us to a completely new level - a world leader in the field of production. Competence centers need to take part in the leading specialized exhibitions as a separate manufacturer, where we can demonstrate our advanced developments and scientific base.

All activities should be directed to the future. Now the ratio of production, for example, is 90 percent - military products, 10 percent - civilian. But over time, this proportion, for obvious reasons, shifts towards the civilian one. The number of civilian orders will increase, including by reducing the cost of production in this particular industry. Competence centers should be leaders not only within the corporation, but across Russia. We will be able to master new types of products, as well as fulfill export orders. We must have the best enterprises in the industry, with impeccable quality of products that meet world standards. And we must be one step ahead of the competition.

In the meantime, everything is turning into “let's save money, we won’t buy machines for everyone, we’ll take ten times less, put it in one place.” This is good, but clearly not enough. The lack of science and incentives for development will lead to the fact that in a couple of years a "garage with nuts" will appear instead of a center of competence. Meanwhile, the corporation that built the center, in addition to saving on equipment, will also want to recoup the costs. And they can only be beaten off in the foreign market, where the center will pick up third-party orders.

- Is it bad to recoup the costs?

- It may happen that the factories of the corporation, all at once, needed some kind of unfortunate nut. And in the center there is a millionth order, because of one nut they will not readjust the machines there and will be right in their own way. What is the result? The problems of factories have worsened - before they had their own equipment, they made this nut if necessary, now there is no such possibility. But factories do not produce nuts, but a certain product. And it may turn out that it will not be finally handed over because of one unfortunate nut. And from here already there is a problem with the delivery of the state defense order. At 99.99 percent, everything is ready, but the nut is missing. And why? Because they said - there is nothing to do at the factory for this machine, the nut is too expensive. Because they consider its cost compared to mass production. But it must be considered in comparison with the cost price in the general product and losses due to the fact that the delivery is delayed for months, as they are waiting for the nut.

- Who decides this issue?

– Managers who make decisions on the creation of competence centers. To avoid such absurd situations, among them there must be technical specialists who are able to foresee and voice these risks. Such decisions cannot be made only on the basis of economic expediency and on the basis of financial calculations.

- In this case, does the country have a regulation for the creation of centers of competence?

- Not. Each corporation independently determines what exactly it means by a competence center and what tasks it intends to solve with its help.

– Are there such centers that fully correspond to their name?

- There is. For example, in our company there is a Center for Engineering Technologies. There, not only the equipment that we supply is presented, but also processing technologies are being developed, machine operators and technologists are being trained. Having experience and the necessary expertise, we can reasonably say on which equipment it is better to produce a product and how to do it optimally. Not cheap or expensive, but only in this way - optimally. The price matters, but the optimum is made up of different things: serialization, risks, the possibility of expanding production, established cooperation, etc. It is one thing to spank nuts in millions of copies, and quite another - a million different nuts. But it is impossible to consider all goals primary.

- What do you think is the way out?

Competence centers need to be created. They will contribute to building technological competencies, the emergence of new breakthrough technologies, and reducing production costs. This, in turn, will increase its competitiveness. It is necessary to realize that in a few years the rearmament of the army and navy of the Russian Federation will be completed and there will be an urgent need for the production of competitive civilian products. Today we need to think about the production of civilian and dual-use products so that the funds spent on the modernization of military-industrial complex enterprises work for the development of the entire Russian economy, increasing the export of high-tech products. By the way, the creation of competence centers is not necessarily the prerogative of state structures. For example, in Germany, in the machine tool industry, which brings in billions of dollars in income and provides the country with a leading position in the world market, 99.5 percent of engineering and manufacturing companies are representatives of small and medium-sized businesses - they play the role of centers of competence there and very successfully.

- And we have?

- It's a bit more complicated for us. The creation of such centers requires large financial costs and the involvement of serious specialists. Few small and medium enterprises are ready for such investments. And the market for engineering services in our mechanical engineering has not yet formed. As for state-owned enterprises, now many corporations are beginning to be interested in creating competence centers, but when organizing them, it is necessary to clearly formulate goals. Technology development should be handled by technologists, not lawyers or financiers. These centers will not always be able to be self-sustaining, but one should clearly understand what problems they will help solve and what kind of results corporate management wants to get from their creation. And besides, it is necessary to understand that the design of such a center is not done instantly. This may take from three months to six months, depending on the volume of the production program and the complexity of cooperation. Because competently designing cooperation is not at all the same as building a building and supplying ten machines. It is necessary to clearly calculate how to ensure that each of the corporation's plants receives what it needs at a particular moment, and the end customer receives finished products on time with the required quality. We have successful experience in designing such centers.

You should pay attention to the fact that in the West tenders are announced for the finished product, we have a different situation - tenders are held for the supply of equipment. Competence centers have equipment, a scientific base, and relevant competencies. Together, having all these parameters, our competence centers will be able to participate in global tenders for the supply of specific products.

– Who else can solve such problems besides you?

- Probably, someone can, if puzzled. But for the most part, no one has done it yet. Too complicated and unpredictable. The main task of corporations is the harmonization of interaction with factories, the construction of a coherent management. In dialogue with us, this task is solved. We can suggest what to pay attention to, help formulate the requirements. Corporate leaders should have a systematic approach to the development of their enterprises. Cooperation should be considered from the point of view of the production of the final product - and this is the most difficult.

I looked at Karaganov's website to read what he thinks about life there. And he writes about the sixth technological order, about which, they say, no one in Russia has ever heard of. Interested. It turned out that some people think about the seventh and this will be the time when psychology will merge in ecstasy with physics. I want everyone to live.

“The concept of the technological order was put into circulation by Russian economists D.S. Lvov and S.Yu. Glazyev. According to the most common point of view, the technological order is a set of technologies characteristic of a certain level of production development. In connection with scientific and technological progress, there is a transition from lower ways to higher, progressive ones. The foundations of the subsequent technological order are born, as a rule, during the period of domination and flourishing of the previous or even the previous one. But until the previous way has exhausted all the possibilities of its development, the sprouts of the next way remain in the shadows and do not receive wide development. Conventionally, it is considered that the duration of the technological order is 50–60 years. To date, economists identify 5 existing ways and talk about the onset of the 6th.

The first way (1785–1835) arose on the basis of the development of technologies in the textile industry and the widespread use of water energy. Although at that time there were already steam engines, they were not yet widely used.

The second mode (1830–1890) refers to the era of accelerated development of transport (railway construction, steam navigation) and the emergence of mechanical production in all industries based on a steam engine.

The third order (1880–1940) is based on use in the industrial production of electrical energy, the development of heavy engineering and electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, new discoveries in the field of chemistry. Radio communication, telegraph, automobiles were introduced. There were large firms, cartels, syndicates, trusts. The market was dominated by monopolies. The concentration of banking and financial capital began.

The fourth order (1930–1990) appeared as a result of further development of energy using oil and oil products gas, communications, new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors, aircraft, various types of weapons, consumer goods. Computers and software products for them, radars appeared and became widespread. Atom is used for military and then for peaceful purposes. Organized mass production based on conveyor technology. The market is dominated by oligopolistic competition. Transnational and international companies that made direct investments in the markets of various countries.

The fifth order (1985–2035) is based on achievements in the field of microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. There is a transition from disparate firms to a single network of large and small companies connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close interaction in the field of technology, product quality control, and innovation planning.

And what is the seventh technological mode? And isn't it too early to talk about it, even if the sixth order has not yet begun? In our opinion, it's not too early. As mentioned above, the sprouts of the next technological order always arise in the depths of the previous or even previous previous order. Today, our society is dominated by the fifth order. The contours of the sixth order are already clearly visible to everyone. And the sprouts of the seventh order are just beginning to erupt, and therefore they are visible only to those who are closely involved in the technologies of the seventh order. How will the seventh order differ from all the previous ones?

In our opinion, the fundamental difference between the seventh technological mode and all the previous ones will be the inclusion of human consciousness in the production. It can be said differently: human consciousness will become the same productive force that science once became. Such technologies can be called cognitive (English conscious - consciousness). Until now, the production of any product does not require the direct participation of human consciousness: in order to press a button on the machine and put the tool into operation, muscular effort is required, and even then only at the very initial stage, and then the worker can only observe the work of the tool, without interfering with his work. But in order to carry out this process, it is first necessary to manufacture a machine and spend a huge amount of material, fuel, labor and time on this. However, when our consciousness itself becomes a productive force, we gain the ability to produce the product we need directly from the void, without resorting to to preliminary manufacture of machinery or other equipment.

Full text here. But you can not read because bullshit.

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