Introduction 3

1. Concept and tasks of financial forecasting 4

2. Problems of financial forecasting at the macro and micro levels 8

3. Prospects for socio-economic forecasting in Russia 11

Conclusion 14

References 15

INTRODUCTION

Financial forecasting is one of the most important stages of financial planning. The purpose of financial forecasting is to link material and financial and cost proportions in the economy in the future; assessment of the expected amount of financial resources; identification of options for financial support; identification of possible deviations from the accepted designs.
Financial forecasting is carried out at three levels of the economy: national, territorial, business entities. At the national level, calculations are made, with the help of which the financial resources of the country are formed, the directions of their development are determined, and the consolidated financial balance of the state is compiled. Calculations make it possible to more correctly develop the economic and financial policy of the state. Financial forecasting is linked to the achievements of scientific and technological progress, forecasts of changes in resources, prices, etc.
The main feature of financial forecasting is variability, which allows the executive body to more accurately assess the problem, choose the best solution, and foresee the consequences of the decisions made. Similarly, financial forecasting is carried out at other territorial levels (subjects of the Russian Federation, municipalities).

1. CONCEPT AND ESSENCE OF FINANCIAL FORECASTING
1.1. Concept and tasks of financial forecasting
Financial forecasting is a study of specific prospects for the development of finances of business entities and government entities in the future, a scientifically based assumption about the volumes and directions of use of financial resources in the future.
Financial forecasting reveals the expected future picture of the state of financial resources and the need for them, possible options for the implementation of financial activities and is a prerequisite for financial planning. The main goal of financial forecasting, carried out for the scientific substantiation of indicators of financial plans and contributing to the development of a concept for the development of finance for the forecast period, can be attributed to the assessment of the estimated volume of financial resources and the determination of preferred options for financial support for the activities of business entities, public authorities and local self-government.
The tasks of financial forecasting are:
- linking material and financial and cost proportions at the macro and micro levels for the future; - determining the sources of formation and the volume of financial resources of business entities and government entities for the forecast period;
- substantiation of directions for the use of financial resources by business entities and government entities for the forecast period based on an analysis of trends and dynamics of financial indicators, taking into account the internal and external factors affecting them;
Financial forecasting is carried out by developing various options for the development of an organization, a separate administrative-territorial unit, a country as a whole, their analysis and justification, assessing the possible degree of achievement of certain goals, depending on the nature of the actions of planning subjects. This is achieved by two different methodological approaches:
1) within the framework of the first approach, forecasting is carried out from the present to the future on the basis of established cause-and-effect relationships;
2) in the second approach, forecasting consists in determining the future goal and guidelines for moving from the future to ...

BISHKEK FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ACADEMY

Department of Finance and Taxation

COURSE WORK

by discipline "Finance"

on the topic: "Financial forecasting, its characteristics and scope"

BISHKEK-2005

Plan

Introduction…………………………………………………………………..…………....3

ChapterI

§1.1 Origin, essence, goals, functions and methodological principles of financial forecasting …………………………………….5

§1.2 Classification of forecasting methods. Overview of basic forecasting methods and accuracy of forecasts………………………………………..10

§1.3 Forecasting and planning at macro and micro levels………….15

ChapterII. Financial forecasting and planning in the economic system of the Kyrgyz Republic

§2.1 Tools and methods of forecasting and planning at the macro level: State budget, monetary relations, balance of payments and exchange rate………………………………………………………………………………………………………………17

§2.2 Financial forecasting at the micro level ……………………………27

ChapterIII. Trends in the Development of Financial Forecasting in the Kyrgyz Republic

§3.1 Problems of financial forecasting at macro and micro levels…31

§3.2 Ways to improve financial forecasting ……………...32

Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………….34

………………………………………………36

Glossary of keywords…… ……………………………………………………..38

Appendix A. The balance of payments and its main components……….……..39

Appendix B….40

Introduction

"Managing means foreseeing"

B. Pascal

Relevance of the topic- At present, it should be noted the continuously growing need for forecasts. The practical value of the predictive function of scientific theories for the purpose of making informed decisions both at the state level and at the level of an individual economic entity has become more acutely realized everywhere. A special place in the theory of scientific forecasting is occupied by financial forecasting, since finance is an important tool for regulating the economy and contributes to its more sustainable development. And at the micro level, financial forecasting can significantly improve enterprise management by ensuring the coordination of all factors of production and sales, the interconnection of the activities of all departments, and the distribution of responsibility.

Thus, the most objective and accurate financial forecasting is the key to the success of the implementation and implementation of the adopted methods and management decisions. Moreover, the methods used in financial forecasting can be equally organically used in the development of forecasts and plans both at the macro and micro levels.

It should also be noted that the relevance of improving the quality of predictive studies is increasing. This requires a more in-depth study and development of the main problems that arise in financial forecasting. To a certain extent, the study and use of world experience will contribute to the solution of these problems. It is advisable to adopt everything that has already been developed - the theoretical and methodological foundations of financial forecasting and planning, as well as practical experience in developing forecasts, plans, programs and their implementation.

The purpose of the course work- this is disclosure of the essence of financial forecasting at the level of the state and organization (company), as well as consideration of financial forecasting methods based on scientific developments of developed countries and world experience in their application, and, of course, identifying existing problems of financial forecasting in the Kyrgyz Republic and recommendations for their decision.

The goal is determined by the need to solve the following tasks:

· characteristics of financial forecasting, its goals, methods, principles and accuracy of forecasts;

· identification of problems of financial forecasting at macro and micro levels;

In this way, subject of research is financial forecasting at the macro and micro levels.

Object of study i is the data of financial forecasting at the level of the state and enterprise.

Methodological base to complete the course work were textbooks and manuals on finance, financial management, forecasting and economic planning, such authors as Borisevich V.I., Kandaurova G.A., Belozerov S.A., Blank I.A., as well as periodicals "Reform ”, “Bank Bulletin”, “Bulletin of the NBKR” and Internet resources.

Information base- these are the bulletins of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, data of the Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic and the Ministry of Finance of the Kyrgyz Republic.

General scope and structure term papers are presented with an introduction, conclusion, three chapters and a list of references.

The introduction defines the relevance of the topic, goals and objectives.

The first chapter characterizes the socio-economic essence of financial forecasting - a description of the origin, goals, functions, principles and methods of financial forecasting, as well as areas of its application: at the level of the state and economic entity.

The second chapter analyzes financial forecasting in the system of the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic: at the macro level - features of financial forecasting of the state budget, monetary relations, balance of payments and exchange rate, and at the micro level - features of building financial forecasts.

The third chapter highlights the problems of financial forecasting in the Kyrgyz Republic at the macro and micro levels and develops recommendations and measures to address them and improve financial forecasting.

In conclusion, brief conclusions are given.

The total volume of the work is 35 pages, including 2 appendices, 9 tables, 2 figures and 1 graph.

The list of references includes 22 sources.

ChapterI. Socio-economic essence of financial forecasting

§1.1 Origin, essence, goals, functions and methodological principles of financial forecasting

Forecasting and planning is not a specific attribute of socialism. History shows that forecasting arose many centuries ago. The feudal lords also predicted the development of their economy. But the capitalist brought to perfection the planning and management of production on the basis of a plan within the company. The plan as a system of economic measures in the economy (large or small) arose with the advent of the division and cooperation of labor and serves as a program of management in a certain time period. With the deepening of the division of social labor, it becomes necessary to establish and maintain proportions. Plannedness as a social category arises with the formation of public-state, municipal property.

At the beginning of the twentieth century. the first attempts were made to identify economic indicators. In particular, J. Bruckmeier already in 1911 tried to use three chronological series of the following indicators for forecasting: bank credit index, share price index, index of general economic activity. This approach was further developed in the 1920s in studies at Harvard University, where the so-called "Harvard ABC curves" were used. Curve A was an index of the value of securities on the stock exchange, curve B was the amount of deposits in banks, curve C was the rate of interest. The choice of these indicators as indicators was based on the notion that in the vicinity of the turning points of the cycle, these indicators, first of all, should have fixed the change in the economic situation in the specified sequence.

A powerful impetus to the development of forecasting and planning abroad was the crisis of 1929-1933, which made it necessary to look for ways out of it.

In the 1930s, for the first time abroad, planning appeared at the macro level. Forecasts and plans are becoming a necessary element of economic regulation systems. Forecasts were made using the input-output model, linear programming, systems analysis models and based on expert assessments.

The first plans at the macro level covered fiscal and monetary policy and were expressed in the preparation of national budgets. They differed from state budgets in that they took into account the revenues not only of the state, but also of the country as a whole.

In the post-war years, planning at the macro level becomes the subject of extensive discussions in order not only to avoid crises, but also to regulate the distribution of goods. The nationalization of a number of industries, the growth of the share of the public sector in the economy made it possible for governments to exercise direct control over foreign trade, prices, and finances.

In the 1950s, many countries moved away from the preparation of national plans in the form of budgets. Two new directions have emerged. The first is connected with the complication of the administrative apparatus used to develop plans, the second - with the expansion of the sphere of planning. If at the first stage national economic plans were drawn up in the Ministry of Finance, then at the beginning of the 60s special planning bodies were created: in France - the General Commissariat for Planning; in Japan, the Economic Advisory Council, Economic Planning Department; in the Netherlands, the Central Planning Office; in Canada, the Economic Council.

Until the 1970s, forecasting was carried out using national forecasting models. In the mid-70s, macroeconomic models began to be created, with the help of which the development of the economy of a number of countries, regions and the whole world is predicted. They were first developed in the USA. Thus, the LINK model includes 10 national models (9 European countries and Japan). When developing the future of the world economy, the UN used the macroeconomic model of V. Leontiev, which consisted of 15 interrelated regional models.

Each country, taking into account the specifics of the national economy, uses certain approaches to forecasting and planning economic and social processes, constantly improving them in relation to changing conditions.

Forecasting is related to a broader concept - foresight. Foresight is ahead of the reflection of reality and is based on the knowledge of the laws of nature, society and thinking. Depending on the degree of specificity and the nature of the impact on the course of the processes under study, the following forms are distinguished: hypothesis, forecast, plan.

Hypothesis characterizes scientific foresight, based on a general theory, i.e. the initial base for constructing a hypothesis is the theory and the regularities and cause-and-effect relationships of the functioning and development of the objects under study discovered on its basis. At the level of a hypothesis, their qualitative characteristics are given, expressing the general patterns of behavior.

Forecast in comparison with the hypothesis, it has much greater certainty, since it is based not only on qualitative, but also on quantitative indicators, and therefore allows characterizing the future state of the object quantitatively. Therefore, the forecast differs from the hypothesis by a lower degree of uncertainty and greater reliability. At the same time, the connections of the forecast with the object under study are not rigid, unambiguous, i.e. are probabilistic. The forecasting process is called forecasting, that is, it is a probabilistic representation of future events based on observations, theoretical generalizations, assumptions, and constraints.

Plan is the setting of a precisely defined goal and the prediction of detailed events of the object under study, it establishes the ways and means of development in accordance with the tasks set, and substantiates the managerial decisions made. Its main distinguishing feature is the specificity of indicators, their certainty in time and quantity. The process of developing a plan is called planning.

The forms of foresight are closely connected in their manifestations with each other, representing successive in their concreteness stages of cognition of the behavior of an object in the future. The initial beginning of this process is the general scientific prediction of the state of the object, the final stage is the development of methods for transferring the object to a new state assigned to it. The most important means for this is the forecast as a link between the general scientific foresight and the plan.

Although the hypothesis is the most general, no scientific management is possible without it. The hypothesis affects this process through the forecast, being an important source of information for decision making. Forecast and plan complement each other. At the same time, the forecast acts as a factor orienting the existing practice to the development opportunities in the future. Forms of a combination of a forecast and a plan can be very different: a forecast can precede the development of a plan (in most cases), follow it (forecasting the consequences of a decision made in a plan), be carried out in the process of developing a plan, independently play the role of a plan, especially in large-scale economic systems (region, state), when it is impossible to provide an accurate definition of indicators, i.e. the plan acquires a probabilistic character and practically turns into a forecast.

Thus, in relation to the specifics of finance financial planning- this is the process of developing a system of financial plans and planned (normative) indicators to ensure the development of the enterprise with the necessary financial resources and improve the efficiency of its financial activities in the coming period. In a broader sense, financial planning can be characterized as the process of analyzing dividend, financial and investment policies, predicting their results and impact on the economic environment of the company and making decisions about the acceptable degree of risk and the choice of projects. Thus, financial planning models are simply tools for more accurate forecasting, designed, among other things, to clarify the relationship between decisions about dividends, investments, sources and methods of financing. Purpose of financial planning- provision of the reproduction process with appropriate financial resources both in terms of volume and structure.

For financial planning, of particular importance is the information that gives an idea of ​​the state of affairs in the future, i.e. predictive information.

financial forecasting- this is, first of all, the rationale for the indicators of financial plans, the prediction of the financial situation for a particular period of time. In other words, in order to process the currently available information about finances, the patterns of their changes, the specific conditions of their functioning at a given point in time, using certain methods using special tools for quantitative assessments, and get an idea of ​​​​the directions of their development and the state in the future.

Home purpose of financial forecasting is to determine the realistically possible amount of financial position for a given period of time. Financial forecasts are a necessary element and at the same time a stage in the development of financial policy. They allow developing various scenarios for solving socio-economic problems facing all subjects of the financial system.

Main financial forecasting functions:

· scientific analysis of social, economic and scientific-technical processes and trends, objective causal relationships of socio-economic phenomena of economic development in specific historical conditions, assessment of the current situation and identification of key problems of economic development;

· assessment of the impact of these trends in the future and anticipation of new conditions and problems that need to be resolved;

· identification of possible development alternatives in the future, accumulation of material for a comprehensively justified choice of one or another development opportunity and the adoption of an optimal planned decision that provides an active impact on the further development of finance.

The forecast outlines areas and opportunities within which real tasks and goals can be set, identifies problems that should become the object of development in the plan. It considers options for active influence on the objective factors of the future development of finance. A financial forecast is such a study of prospective development that is not limited to a specific economic and political decision, and therefore has a preliminary, variant character, its horizons are not limited to the planning period.

Forecasting and planning methodology development of the economy determines the basic principles, approaches and methods for forecasting and planning calculations, reveals and characterizes the logic of the formation of forecasts, plans and their implementation.

Principles are the fundamental rules of forecasting and planning, i.e. starting points for the formation of forecasts and justification of plans in terms of their purposefulness, consistency, structure, logic and organization of development. In other words, these are the main requirements that must be met when developing forecasts and plans.

Methods- these are the methods, techniques used in the development of forecasts, plans, programs. They act as a tool to implement the methodological principles of forecasting and planning.

The development of forecasts and plans should be based on methodological principles. The most important methodological principles of both forecasting and planning include the following principles: consistency, continuity, complexity, adequacy, purposefulness and priority, optimality, balance and proportionality, social orientation, a combination of sectoral and regional aspects of planning.

The fundamental principle of forecasting is principle of alternative which requires multivariate predictive developments (alternatives). According to this principle, the best option from two or more possible options should be taken as the basis. This principle proceeds from the essential characteristics of the forecast and is associated with the possibilities for the development of the economy and its links along different trajectories.

The principle of consistency involves the study of quantitative and qualitative patterns in economic systems, the construction of such a logical chain of research, according to which the process of developing and justifying any decision should start from the definition of the general goal of the system and subordinate the activities of all subsystems to the achievement of this goal. It allows you to divide any system into many subsystems (the economy is divided into complexes, the latter - into subcomplexes, etc.). This principle involves the creation of a system of indicators, methods, models that would correspond to the content of each object and would allow building a complete picture of its development.

In connection with the continuity of economic development, the improvement of production on the basis of the development of science and technology, planning continuity principle, i.e. continuity of forecasts, plans. In accordance with this principle, forecasts and plans for various time aspects should be developed and linked with each other. Thus, medium-term plans should be developed on the basis of promising directions reflected in long-term plans, short-term plans - based on the indicators of medium-term plans. Long-term plans should be adjusted and extended for an appropriate period. This is due to the emergence of new needs of society, major changes in technology and for other reasons.

The principle of purposefulness and priority requires that each plan be targeted, i.e. would be aimed at achieving certain goals. Priority principle implemented in close connection with the principle of complexity, involving the consideration of all aspects of the object of study in its connection and dependence with other processes and phenomena.

In order to ensure the most efficient functioning of the economy, the principle of optimality. The term "optimal" means the best, i.e. of all possible options, the best, most effective one should be selected.

§1.2 Classification of forecasting methods

Overview of basic forecasting methods and forecast accuracy

In world practice, more than two hundred forecasting methods are used, in domestic science - no more than twenty. The introduction indicated that the methods of financial forecasting, which are widely used in developed foreign countries, will be considered.

Thus, depending on the type of model used, all forecasting methods can be divided into three large groups (see Figure 1):

Methods of expert assessments, which provide for a multi-stage survey of experts according to special schemes and the processing of the results obtained using economic statistics tools. These are the simplest and most popular methods, the history of which goes back more than one millennium. The application of these methods in practice, usually, is to use the experience and knowledge of trade, financial, production managers of an enterprise or government agency. As a rule, this ensures that the decision is made in the simplest and fastest way. The disadvantage is the reduction or complete absence of personal responsibility for the forecast made. Expert assessments are used not only to predict the values ​​of indicators, but also in analytical work, for example, to develop weight coefficients, threshold values ​​for controlled indicators, etc.

Stochastic Methods, suggesting the probabilistic nature of both the forecast and the relationship between the studied indicators. The probability of obtaining an accurate forecast increases with the increase in the number of empirical data. These methods occupy a leading place in terms of formalized forecasting and vary significantly in the complexity of the algorithms used. The simplest example is the study of sales trends by analyzing the growth rates of sales indicators. Forecasting results obtained by statistical methods are subject to random fluctuations in data, which can sometimes lead to serious miscalculations.

Stochastic Methods can be divided into three typical groups, which will be named below. The choice for forecasting the method of one or another group depends on many factors, including the available initial data.

First situation - the presence of a time series - occurs most often in practice: a financial manager or analyst has at his disposal data on the dynamics of the indicator, on the basis of which it is required to build an acceptable forecast. In other words, we are talking about highlighting a trend. This can be done in various ways, the main of which are simple dynamic analysis and analysis using autoregressive dependencies.

Second situation - the presence of a spatial aggregate - takes place if for some reason there are no statistical data on the indicator or there is reason to believe that its value is determined by the influence of some factors. In this case, multivariate regression analysis can be used, which is an extension of a simple dynamic analysis to a multivariate case.

Rice. one . Classification of methods for predicting the financial condition of an enterprise

Third situation - the presence of a spatio-temporal set - takes place when: a) the series of dynamics are insufficient in length to build statistically significant forecasts; b) the analyst intends to take into account in the forecast the influence of factors that differ in economic nature and their dynamics. The initial data are matrices of indicators, each of which represents the values ​​of the same indicators for different periods or for different consecutive dates.

Deterministic Methods, suggesting the presence of functional or rigidly determined relationships, when each value of the factor attribute corresponds to a well-defined non-random value of the resultant attribute. As an example, we can cite the dependencies implemented in the framework of the well-known DuPont factor analysis model. Using this model and substituting into it the forecast values ​​of various factors, such as sales proceeds, asset turnover, the degree of financial dependence, and others, it is possible to calculate the forecast value of one of the main performance indicators - the return on equity ratio.

Another very illustrative example is the income statement form, which is a tabular implementation of a rigidly determined factor model that connects the effective attribute (profit) with factors (sales income, cost level, tax rate level, etc.). And at the level of state financial forecasting, the factor model is the relationship between the volume of state revenues and the tax base or interest rates.

Here it is impossible not to mention another group of methods for financial forecasting at the micro level, based on the construction of dynamic simulation models of the enterprise. Such models include data on planned purchases of materials and components, production and sales volumes, cost structure, investment activity of the enterprise, tax environment, etc. The processing of this information within the framework of a single financial model makes it possible to assess the forecast financial condition of the company with a very high degree of accuracy. In reality, such models can only be built using personal computers, which make it possible to quickly perform a huge amount of necessary calculations.

Overview of basic forecasting methods

Modeling methods and economic and mathematical methods

Modeling involves the construction of a model based on a preliminary study of an object or process, highlighting its essential characteristics or features. Forecasting economic and social processes using models includes the development of a model, its experimental analysis, comparison of the results of predictive calculations based on the model with actual data on the state of an object or process, correction and refinement of the model.

The methods of economic and mathematical modeling include the following methods:

matrix models (statistical and dynamic),

models of optimal planning,

economic and statistical,

multivariate models,

econometric models,

simulation models,

Decision making models

Network planning models

the method of intersectoral balance,

· optimization methods,

Correlation-regression models.

Method of economic analysis

Economic analysis is an integral part and one of the main elements of the logic of forecasting and planning. It should be carried out both at the macro-, and at the meso- and microlevels.

The essence of the method of economic analysis lies in the fact that the economic process or phenomenon is divided into its component parts and the interconnection and influence of these parts on each other and on the course of development of the entire process are revealed. The analysis allows us to reveal the essence of the process, to determine the patterns of its change in the forecast (planned) period, to comprehensively assess the possibilities and ways to achieve the goals.

In the process of economic analysis, such techniques as comparison, grouping, index method are used, balance calculations are carried out, normative and economic-mathematical methods are used.

balance method

The balance method involves the development of balances, which are a system of indicators in which one part, characterizing the resources by source of income, is equal to the other part, showing the distribution (use) in all directions of their expenditure.

In the transition period to market relations, the role of predictive balances developed at the macro level increases: the balance of payments, the balance of income and expenditure of the state, the balance of cash income and expenditure of the population, the consolidated balance of labor resources, balances of supply and demand. The results of balance calculations serve as the basis for the formation of structural, social, financial-budgetary and monetary policy, as well as the policy of employment and foreign economic activity. Balances are also used to identify imbalances in the current period, open up unused reserves and justify new proportions.

Normative method

The normative method is one of the main methods of forecasting and planning. In modern conditions, it began to be given special importance in connection with the use of a number of norms and standards as regulators of the economy. The essence of the normative method lies in the feasibility study of forecasts, plans, programs using norms and standards. With their help, the most important proportions, the development of material production and the non-production sphere are substantiated, and the economy is regulated.

The balance of payments is one of the main tools for macroeconomic forecasting analysis. Its data reflect how foreign trade developed during the reporting period, which directly affects the exchange rate, the level of production, employment and consumption. Based on the balance of payments, it is possible to determine in what forms foreign investments were attracted and investments were made abroad, whether you repay the country's external debt on time or whether there were delays and its restructuring. In addition, it shows how the NBKR, the balance of payments compiler, changed the level of its international reserves, eliminating imbalances of payments.

Making a forecast of the balance of payments is considered throughout the world to be a very difficult analytical task, and its quality depends on the correct assessment of a huge number of variables that are difficult to predict. The existing country practice of short-term forecasting of foreign economic relations is quite diverse, since it takes into account local features, structure and degree of involvement of a particular state in the international division of labor.

What is common, however, is that, as a rule, forecasting is limited to the current account, which is the most transparent in terms of expectations regarding the composition and volume of future transactions of this type.

The main problem lies in the forecast of the movement of private capital. It is this item in the balance of payments that is most affected by the elements of the market. The key point in the proposed approach to forecasting is the empirically revealed relationship between foreign resources mobilized over a certain time and the export of capital by residents over the same time interval. This connection is obvious and reflects an economically quite understandable situation, when, other things being equal, an investor exports capital the more, the greater its volume can potentially be withdrawn.

In terms of imports, the concept of a small country implies that a country is so small in the world market that a change in its demand does not affect the price of imports in foreign currency. In the process of analyzing the volume of foreign trade, it is advisable to focus on the factors of demand for imports and supply factors for exports. When analyzing prices in foreign currency, the main attention is drawn to the trends existing in world markets.

Domestic buyers, when considering buying a domestic or imported product, will compare relative prices in the same currency. Accordingly, changes in a variable such as relative price may reflect changes in domestic and foreign prices expressed in the respective currencies, as well as changes in the exchange rate. A change in the import duty rate has the same effect on relative prices as does the exchange rate.

Forecasting services has certain features, because they form a rather heterogeneous group of operations. Thus, freight and insurance receipts and payments are associated, respectively, with the movement of exports and imports. Tourism-related receipts and payments may depend on variables such as income and price competitiveness.

Incomes from investments as a result of direct and other investments must be distinguished. Direct investment income depends on past accumulated foreign investment and can only be realized after a significant period of time due to legal restrictions on the repatriation of funds. In the case of income from other investments, interest payments and receipts reflect the amount and value of past and present foreign loans granted and received, as well as the level of international reserves.

Worker wage transfers are often the main components of private unilateral transfers. A distinction can be made between the total earnings of workers in the host country and the amount that is repatriated.

When forecasting the financial account, three main categories must be distinguished: direct investment, medium and long-term capital movements, and short-term movements.

The volume of direct investment is associated with the availability of investment opportunities and the prospects for rapid economic growth. Having well-defined rules and regulations is part of an investment-friendly climate, as is credible government policy to achieve macroeconomic stability.

Information contained in draft budgets and development plans, as well as information from investor countries, can be used to plan the inflow of public medium and long-term capital.

The access of many countries to international loans is limited and tends to change depending on the conditions prevailing in the international capital markets.

The exchange rate is the price of the currency of one country expressed in the currencies of other countries. Such a price can be set based on the ratio of supply and demand for a certain currency in a free market, or be regulated by a decision of the government or its main financial and credit body (national bank).

Demand and supply of currency depend on exports and imports.

The increase in exports leads to an increase in the value of the currency of this country. The value of the currency also increases with a decrease in imports. However, the impact of exports and imports on the exchange rate are interdependent. The extent to which increased exports affect the exchange rate depends on the reaction of imports to that rate, and vice versa.

When forecasting the exchange rate, methods of expert assessments and statistical methods are used. In world practice, multifactorial models are widely used. The equation for forecasting the exchange rate is built taking into account the factors influencing its formation.

Consider the results of financial forecasting at the macro level.

The Medium-Term Budget Forecast of the Kyrgyz Republic (MTB) was prepared by the Ministry of Finance in pursuance of the instructions of the President and the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic, as well as the Memorandum on Economic Policy agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The medium-term document has been in preparation for several years. Every year, a detailed analysis is carried out, and adjustments are made for the next medium-term perspective.

The SPB is a tool of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic to improve budget planning and efficient use of public resources. Its purpose is to provide strategic direction and guidance for the preparation of the 2006 budget. The SPB submitted for review was developed between December 2004 and March 2005 and sets out the framework for preparing the 2006 budget.

STRUCTURE OF SPB RESOURCES

State budget revenues, including official transfers and excluding PIP grants, will increase by 49.4% in the medium term (from 18,811 million soms in 2005 to 28,103 million soms in 2008).

Government spending, taking into account external financing of the PIP, will increase by 29.9%. At the same time, state budget expenditures as a percentage of GDP will decrease from 25.6% in 2005 to 24.4% in 2008.

Table 1 shows the structure of the SPB budgetary resources for the period 2006-2008.

Table 1. Overview of the structure of budgetary resources, mln. som

Macroeconomic forecast

The main task of macroeconomic policy in the period from 2006 to 2008 will be to continue the process of macroeconomic stabilization and economic growth. During this period, GDP is expected to grow by an average of 5.6% per year, with an inflation target of 4%. Monetary policy measures will be aimed at curbing the growth of inflation and ensuring the stability of the exchange rate of the som against the US dollar.

The exchange rate of the US dollar is projected at the level of 44 KGS/USD. USA.

It should be clarified that in the Long-term Scientific Forecast of the Economic and Social Development of the Kyrgyz Republic, prepared in June 2000, the forecast of the real exchange rate was different from that indicated above.

This means that the preparation of forecast reports is constantly compared with changes in external and internal factors, i.e. the principle of continuity and focus on the accuracy of forecasts is observed.

The exchange rate policy will remain based on the floating exchange rate of the Kyrgyz som, which is formed in the free foreign exchange market. The NBKR will continue to participate in the interbank foreign exchange market in order to smooth out current exchange rate fluctuations and manage the international reserves of the NBKR, maintaining them at the level of covering about 5 months of imports.

The successful implementation of these goals will be facilitated by the results of negotiations with the Paris Club of creditors. On March 11, 2005, the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic signed an agreement with the Paris Club. Of the $555.1 million in debt, club members are writing off $124 million, which is half the amount of non-concessional loans, and the rest of the debt is being restructured on soft terms. In the period 2006-2008, the payment of 75, 70 and 65 interest payments, respectively, will be delayed for a period of 23 years.

Merchandise exports are projected at $650 million and up just 2.2% as a result of an expected 14% decline in gold exports due to lower gold production.

Taking into account the growth trend in the 1st half of 2004 by almost 44%, the import of goods is forecasted in 2005 in the amount of 891 million US dollars, which is by 10.4%

higher than expected imports in 2004

table 2. Medium-term macroeconomic forecast for 2006-2008

Macroeconomic projections (see Table 2) are also based on the following assumptions:

· High commodity prices and positive domestic developments will ensure continued rapid economic growth in the neighboring economies of the main trading partners, Kazakhstan, Russia and China. This will ensure a further increase in demand for export goods of Kyrgyzstan (agricultural products, processing enterprises, building materials, services), provided that the trade regime with these countries does not worsen. Given that all of these countries are in some stage of WTO accession, the latter is a realistic assumption.

· Maintaining a favorable environment in the gold market will make it possible to compensate for the gradual decline in production at the Kumtor gold deposit associated with the natural depletion of reserves, the commissioning of other large gold deposits Taldy-Bulak Levoberezhny and Jerui.

· The solution of foreign policy issues, which are the main prerequisite for the implementation of these projects, will really start the development of large projects in the energy and transport sectors (Kambarata HPP, Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-China railway - in 2008)

Mid-term assessment of the revenue part of the budget

In the period from 2002 to 2004, the revenues of the consolidated budget grew steadily both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP, having increased by 27.2% - from 14.4 billion soms (19.1% of GDP) in 2002. to 18.3 billion soms (19.5% of GDP) in 2004 (see Table 3). The volume of tax revenues increased by 33.5% with an average annual growth rate of 115.5%, and their share in GDP from 13.9% to 14.9%.

Table 3. Dynamics of receipts of incomes in the budget for 2002-2004., million som

In the current 2005, the consolidated budget revenues are planned in the amount of 19.8 billion soms (an increase of 8.0% compared to 2004), or at the level of 19.3% of GDP. At the same time, tax revenues will increase to 15.5 billion soms (15.1% of GDP) with a growth rate of 10.9% compared to 2004.

The planned indicators will be achieved, first of all, due to the growth of economic activity, as well as the improvement of tax administration. In 2005, the possibility of increasing land tax rates and related social contributions will be considered, as the contribution of the primary agricultural sector to tax revenues remains insignificant.

In the medium term, the projected economic growth will be the basis for further growth in budget revenues. A slight increase in tax revenues over the period of St. Petersburg 2006-2008 from 15.1% of GDP (2005) to 15.7% of GDP will generally be achieved not by increasing tax rates, but by improving administration and optimizing the internal structure of the tax system. In addition to improving tax collection, these measures will be aimed at stimulating the activity of the enterprise sector and economic growth.

After a decrease to 492 million soms in 2005, in accordance with the changed policy of donors and the allocation of an increased part of assistance in the form of grants for 2006-2008, a significant increase in grants to the state budget is planned to reach 1,218-1,470 million soms per year.

In accordance with the policy of fiscal consolidation and reduction of external debt, it is planned to strictly limit the gap between the total revenues to the state budget, including grants, and its expenditure side. The financing of this gap, which is carried out mainly through debt transactions, will be reduced from 4.3% of GDP in 2005 to 3.4% of GDP in 2008.

In general, for the period under review, SPB 2006-2008 is projected to grow in total budget revenues, including grants, from 22.9 billion soms (20.2% of GDP) in 2006 to 28.1 billion soms (20.5% of GDP) by 2008. Tax revenues will increase by 23.4% from 17.5 billion soms in 2006 to 21.6 billion soms in 2008.

The main figures illustrating the state budget resources for the SPB 2006-2008 period are shown in Table 4.

Table 4. Consolidated revenue receipts to the budget

External financing and budget deficit

The total revenues to the state budget do not cover the needs of financing public expenditures. The Government seeks additional resources to finance the state budget deficit through external and internal borrowings.

In the period 2002-2004, financing of the state budget deficit averaged 5.1 percent of GDP. Most of the funding came from external sources. The total amount of external borrowing, including budget support and financing of PIP projects, averaged 4.3 billion soms (5.4% of GDP) between 2002 and 2004 (see Table 5).

In 2005, net financing from all sources is expected to be 4.4 billion soms (4.3% of GDP).

Table 5. Financing the budget deficit, million som

The level of new external borrowings to finance the PIP will decrease at a relatively low rate in absolute terms from 3.4 billion soms in 2005 to 2.3 billion soms in 2008, and in relation to GDP from 3.3% to 1. 7% respectively. Total PIP external payments are shown in Table 6.

Table 6. Total External Payments on PIP Loans and Grants, thousand som

Domestic funding

The main source of internal financing of the budget deficit is the issuance of treasury bills (STB), which is planned to increase from 1,753.7 million soms in 2005 to 1,970.9 million soms in 2008 over this period.

Privatization revenues are an important source of financing the budget deficit as the process of privatization of enterprises of strategic importance continues. Privatization revenues averaged 277.0 million soms (0.4% of GDP) in 2002-2004. During 2006-2008, the annual income from privatization is expected at the level of 150.0 million soms (0.1% of GDP). The general forecast of sources of financing the state budget deficit is given in Table 7.

As such, the financial forecasting system at the macro level

did not exist in the Kyrgyz Republic. This is objectively explained by the following factors: statistical concepts were not adapted to the changes associated with the transition from a planned system to a market economy, a small database of macroeconomic empirical parameters, a lack of qualified specialists, and a lack of government funding for the creation of an institution for financial forecasting. These and, perhaps, many other factors prevented the creation of a state institution for forecasting. Therefore, the initiative to create an institute for forecasting had to come from outside, which eventually happened.

The initiator of the creation of the institute of social and economic forecasting was the program of the European Union - TACIS "Long-term scientific forecast of economic and social development of the Kyrgyz Republic". This project started on April 8, 1998 and was completed on August 12, 2000. Donor services (grant) were provided by the European Economic Society for a total of 1,135,265 USD.

Within the framework of this TACIS project on "Long-term scientific forecast of economic and social development of the Kyrgyz Republic", the Ministry of Finance of the Kyrgyz Republic and the Center for Economic and Social Reforms formed a Policy Assessment and Planning Group (PPU). The PSU group is called upon to deal with long-term issues of the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic and develop foresights regarding the development of the economy and society. In accordance with the Terms of Reference, the PSU team received an analytical framework to assist in scenario building and policy analysis, or in other words, a system designed for long-term forecasting.

A forecasting system designed for CR cannot fully take into account all the determinants postulated by theories. Data availability issues need to be taken into account. A working model cannot be too complex. However, it should cover the most important factors and take into account the following main links:

a) Due to the fact that Kyrgyzstan is a small open economy, interactions with the global economy and the impact of international competitiveness should be taken into account.

b) Due to the fact that Kyrgyzstan is a developing country, capital and know-how are becoming a major constraint to growth and productivity.

c) As a developing country, if the economy grows, the KR will face the fact that its production functions, sectoral structure and positions will change significantly. More developed countries offer recommendations to Kyrgyzstan on the structure of changes.

d) In any economy, there are strong links between productivity, income levels and the level and composition of demand, which change through fiscal and economic policies.

Thus, the DESP system should cover both the supply side and the demand side. Particular attention should be paid to modeling investment in business and infrastructure (transport and communication and energy networks, educational and training institutions). The main determinant of investment opportunities is the legal and regulatory framework of the economy.

There are limitations in creating a model. The database for Kyrgyzstan still has gaps (eg capital stock, capital impairment). Due to the fact that the statistical concepts were adapted to the changes associated with the transition from a centrally controlled economy to a market system only after 1993, at the present time the length of the time lags is a maximum of six years. These limitations indicate that this model cannot be a classical econometric model. To predict horizons up to 20 years, model parameter estimates should be based at least on empirical data for 50–100 years. Therefore, there is a problem of inaccurate forecasts.

In this regard, the parameters of the DESP system can only be based on the "experience" of other countries. Parameter values ​​were brought into line with the structures and relations of the Kyrgyz Republic.

At the micro level, the main problem can be the inaccuracy of forecasts, with all the ensuing consequences, which can take very threatening forms for the enterprise, due to the waste of time and it on catching up on lost moments, while competing enterprises are progressing at a new level. It should be taken into account that here the accuracy of forecasts is influenced by the human factor, since the competence of financial managers includes the preparation of the most probable financial forecasts and plans. Therefore, the degree of accuracy in making forecasts depends on the qualifications of the financial manager, the choice of the method of financial forecasting and the implementation of strict financial control.

§3.2 Ways to improve financial forecasting

Ways to solve the problems of financial forecasting and its improvement logically lie in the elimination of problems, i.e. First of all, these are the following:

Some progress in this direction has already begun. Moreover, Western experts are the initiators, so the process of introducing socio-economic forecasting is proceeding at a fairly rapid pace. For example, the Long-term Economic and Social Forecast System (LTESP) developed within the framework of the TASIS project has been successfully applied in economic policy.

The forecasting system should:

· cover the forecasting horizon from 3 to 20 years;

Consider issues of growth, employment, and

· economic and social transformation of the Kyrgyz Republic;

· have a regional breakdown of GDP and employment.

Also quite successfully and optimistically, the state budget forecast is built - the Medium-Term Budget Forecast (MTB). The purpose of the SPB is to give the budget process a strategic focus, to make it more predictable by concentrating budget allocations into priority areas identified by the National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS). For example, the Medium-Term Budget Forecast of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2006-2008 is the following structure:

PART I: SPB RESOURCE STRUCTURE

Fiscal policy and resource projections under the SPB

PART II: SPB EXPENDITURE STRUCTURE

Overview of the Consolidated Structure of Public Sector Resources

Main areas of SPB spending

Intersectoral distribution of resources

Financial Decentralization and Intergovernmental Relations

Classification of budget expenditures aimed at poverty

Policy Matrix for Intersectoral Allocation of Resources

Some material from SPB was used as an example in the second chapter of this work.

Conclusion

Based on the research conducted as part of the course work, we made the following theoretical generalizations and practical recommendations:

1. Financial forecasting is a scientific theory that plays an important role in planning and regulating the economy at the macro level, and at the micro level allows you to effectively manage the financial resources of an enterprise to maximize profits.

Financial forecasting is the processing of currently available information about finances, the patterns of their changes, the specific conditions for their functioning at a given point in time using special tools for quantitative assessments and obtaining an idea of ​​​​the directions of their development and state in the future.

2. When considering the features of building financial forecasts, it is necessary to remember the close connection between financial planning and forecasting. Financial forecasting substantiates qualitatively and quantitatively the most probable scenarios for the development of the future, on the basis of which financial plans are developed for the most adequate response in the future.

The most important methodological principles of both forecasting and planning include the following principles: consistency, continuity, complexity, adequacy, purposefulness and priority, optimality, balance and proportionality.

When developing financial forecasts, the methods used play an important role. In world practice, the following classification of financial forecasting methods is used: methods of expert assessments, stochastic methods, deterministic methods. The most common method is the combined method, which takes into account all possible (relevant) factors, which means that the predicted scenario is highly accurate.

When forecasting at the macro level, the objects of financial forecasting are the state budget, monetary relations, the balance of payments and the exchange rate, and at the macro level, the forecast of sales volume, i.e. expected income. When forecasting government revenues, economic-statistical modeling and pure econometric modeling are used, and when spending, targeted programs for spending the state budget are considered. Forecasting of monetary relations is carried out by means of statistical methods, methods of expert assessments. Forecasting the balance of payments is based on data on the development of foreign countries, since Kyrgyzstan is a small open economy and depends largely on foreign economies. The same applies to the exchange rate.

When forecasting at the macro level, the combined method is most often used, which includes methods of expert assessments, extrapolation methods, deterministic methods using econometric modeling, which gives high accuracy of forecasts.

3. At the moment, financial forecasting in Kyrgyzstan is at a fairly early stage of development due to objective reasons: statistical concepts were not adapted to the changes associated with the transition from a planned system to a market economy, a small database of macroeconomic empirical parameters, a lack of qualified specialists, a lack of state funding for the creation of an institution of financial forecasting. The same applies to the system of financial forecasting in enterprises. But, it should be noted that the first steps towards the use of financial forecasting methods have already been made. Thus, for several years now, the Ministry of Finance of the Kyrgyz Republic has been preparing a Medium-Term Budget Forecast (MTB) based on the LTSP (Long-term Economic and Social Forecast) system, the development of which was supported by the TASIS project. Every year, a detailed analysis is carried out, and adjustments are made for the next medium-term perspective. The result of this work is the SPB for 2006-2008, whose data has been used as an example in this paper.

Solutions lie in troubleshooting:

creation of special research centers for forecasts in the Kyrgyz Republic at the level of state structures, and at the micro level - the creation of financial forecasting or planning departments,

training of highly qualified specialists in this field, or upgrading the skills of existing specialists both in government agencies and at the enterprise, holding seminars, trainings, advanced training courses, etc.,

· the use of methodological foundations of financial forecasting and planning, based on the scientific developments of developed countries and world experience, as well as practical experience in developing forecasts, plans, programs and their implementation, i.е. introduction of modern methods of computer modeling, use of modern econometric, statistical and mathematical methods,

· Strengthening the connection between the academic environment, government agencies and enterprises, the exchange of information and experience.

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Trade in goods(million US dollars)

Export (fob)

Import (cif)

Exchange Rates(KGS/USD)

Nominal exchange rate (at the end of the period)

Nominal exchange rate (average for the period)

ApplicationB

Scenario of the international environment of the economy of Kyrgyzstanin percents

The market economy, despite the high degree of self-regulation, implies a purposeful external influence on the mechanism of its own functioning from all subjects of market economic relations, which can be an individual, an enterprise and the state (represented by various state organizations). In turn, a targeted impact in general and on economic processes in particular is unthinkable without the use of a specific, scientifically constructed system of forecasting and planning at all levels of a market economy, such as: an individual, an enterprise, a region, a country and the entire world community.

It should be noted that Soviet economic science and practice for a long time developed a whole system of methods for analyzing and planning the development of economic systems, adequate to the features of development and functioning in the corresponding period and political guidelines. Many valuable and useful things from this experience were taken by Western scientists and specialists and adapted to the specific conditions of the market economy of their countries. Therefore, at present, the task is to generalize all the knowledge accumulated in this area and apply them to achieve efficiency, balance and progressive development of the Russian economy.

Currently, the question of the need for a nationwide system of plans and forecasts for the development and functioning of all types of economic systems with an optimal ratio of state regulation and self-regulation of subjects of market relations is relevant. There are two main levels of adoption and implementation of economic decisions. The first is microeconomic, realized by the individual, household and enterprise. The basis of microeconomic management are decisions made individually or by a group, this includes a number of state decrees and preferences. The second is the macroeconomic level (region, country, world economy), at which the main proportions are determined within the framework of large economic systems, such as the rate of accumulation, the level of aggregated demand, growth rates, etc.

Western economists distinguish the following main planning theories: a comprehensive rational approach; protection planning; apolitical politics; critical planning theory; strategic planning; incrementalism. Let us dwell on some features of these directions. A comprehensive rational approach consists of a series of procedures by which objectives are refined, a system analysis is carried out to develop policy alternatives, criteria are established for choosing the optimal version from these alternatives, and the results are analyzed. At the same time, the analysis should be comprehensive, rational and aimed at ensuring that all elements of the system contribute to the fulfillment of the tasks set.

In the context of protection planning, the interests of those who benefit from the implementation of planned installations are in the first place, since very often existing plans reflect the distribution of power in society and therefore it is imperative to take into account the interests of low-income strata of the population. But at the same time, the actual increase in the number of participants in the planning process reduces the power of the weak, making them more dependent on those who have access to knowledge.

Planning Theory - Apolitical politics comes from the fact that planning is defined as the use of technical knowledge to achieve political or managerial compromises. The critical theory of planning, one of the main, essential points, puts forward methods for the distribution of power in society and determines the degree of influence of this distribution on planning. It focuses on the unequal distribution of power and the importance of free communication in the search for consensus. This is why critical planning theory rejects the notion of an apolitical approach to planning.

In the bowels of the corporate world, strategic planning is born, which determines the specific features of its principles and methods and reflects distrust in human abilities to predict the future. This is the essential difference between strategic planning and comprehensive planning: it never has a logical conclusion, but always concerns a particular and pre-selected one. Strategic planning is based on the presentation of contingencies and the ability to indicate the need for organizational integration and coordination in order to adequately respond to emerging contingencies.

Incrementalism as a theory of planning comes from the fact that the decision-making process is an infinitesimal increment, and the choice is based on consistent but limited comparisons of several alternatives. The fact is that in an uncertain environment, groups or individuals are only able to adapt to each other, i.e. avoid major mistakes by making very small changes, which helps each side understand how the other is doing. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that incrementalism is effective for situations where changes are slow and mutual adjustment is feasible.

A program-target approach, which is based on the optimal synthesis of generalized, regional and sectoral approaches to making forecasts, can give a great effect in the process of forecasting economic systems. At the same time, the most important, if not decisive, component of complex forecasts should be targeted integrated programs for the implementation of economic and social problems, scientific and technical problems. These forecasts should form the basis and part of a comprehensive forecast of the economic and social development of the Russian economy. At the regional level, appropriate forecasts should also be developed and applied, formed from the components of all-Russian programs and forecasts. Based on the goals and objectives set in the forecasts, it becomes possible to objectively assess the timing of their implementation, as well as the necessary financial, material and labor resources.

The process of forecasting is unthinkable without scientifically substantiated consideration of general economic, sectoral and regional proportions. General economic proportions represent the most general ratios in the production and use of gross domestic product (GDP) and national income (NI). Therefore, forecasts should find justification for the generalized shares of the social product directed to the replacement of consumed means of production, on the one hand, and to non-productive consumption, on the other, and accumulation. One of the most important proportions that characterize the standard of living of the country's population is the ratio between the part of the national income directed to consumption and the national income directed to accumulation.

Of great importance in determining the prospects for economic development is also indicative planning, which serves as a powerful tool for forecasting economic systems. In turn, indicative planning includes the following elements: making forecasts of market conditions and their dynamics; identification of priorities for the economic development of an enterprise, region, country; determination of the spheres of the most effective application of capital; detection of industries and large enterprises that in the foreseeable future may face problems selling their own products. For successful implementation, indicative plans must be tightly controlled and have clear legislative support.

Forecasting in a market economy has a number of advantages: the ability to collect, process, coordinate and disseminate information, to reveal a picture at the micro level of the studied economic processes; coordination of the functioning of economic entities and objects, as well as cooperation of their activities with government bodies; creation of conditions for the rational and efficient use of all types of resources, including public ones; achieving the effectiveness of state influence on the economy; formation of optimal prerequisites for long-term foresight and regulation of economic processes, especially in the field of education, energy supply, research activities; promoting the formation of a favorable economic environment for the activities of all agents of market relations; removal of the negative effects associated with personal property rights, especially in cases where the unlimited exercise of these rights leads to small, atomized organizational forms; an effective means of tightening the budget constraints of economic objects; planning contains the potential to strengthen the position of those sections of society that have fallen into less favorable economic conditions, by reducing unemployment, weakening economic and social inequality; creation of a stable political situation, which is a condition for the implementation of the principles of freedom and democracy.

The problems of forecasting market economic systems are also associated with the existence of so-called "market defects". The market operates as an inefficient mechanism for goods and services that are very difficult to price (education, health care, public administration, military, etc.). Therefore, in a market economy, such a paradoxical situation as the personal wealth of individual citizens and public poverty is very often encountered. For example, Moscow, the city of the richest people in Russia, outwardly looks much worse than many provincial cities, since the city budget does not have enough money for improvement. In a market economy, economic calculations are actively used always and everywhere, even in areas such as meeting the needs and needs of an individual.

Micro- and macro-limitations exist and operate, such as inflation and unemployment, poverty and environmental pollution, which are, to a certain extent, products and consequences of the functioning of the market economy system. Moreover, very often the market is able to give social consequences an irresponsible and even dangerous character, which can ultimately lead to the destruction of the market system itself. In addition, almost all countries with a market economy are facing a very urgent problem, namely: maintaining the long-term viability of the market system and its development.

In terms of the topic under consideration, it should be emphasized that all countries with a market economy, to one degree or another, are moving towards forecasting and planning. The market at a certain stage of its development gives rise to an objective need for forecasting and planning, which act as a denial of the market, just as in the process of development of a command-administrative economy, there is a need for market relations, a denial of the system that generates them. These phenomena are an objective reaction to the difficulties that arise in the process of functioning of economic systems. In the most general form, forecasting and planning become tools that allow the market economy to overcome its own organic shortcomings by combining the advantages of the government and non-government sectors.

In Japan, for example, the government, big business, and banks openly cooperate. France has a prioritization system that includes trade unions, industry, civil servants and the government. In Germany, although there is no official planning, the government and banks work closely together, and trade unions have legal representatives on the boards of directors of large industrial corporations.

Of great importance in the development of economic systems is the balance of all aspects of economic activity at the level of all subjects of economic relations. At the same time, forecasting allows in a market economy to achieve a limitation of the destructive market forces, the negative nature of which manifests itself under certain circumstances, greater rationality due to the possibility of choosing the most optimal variant of the desire for economic development of various subjects.

Forecasts of any type are inconceivable without a certain system of tasks and goals. It should be borne in mind that all goals are interrelated and interdependent. Therefore, when making and implementing forecasts, one should strive for a certain compatibility of goals, and, in addition, a detailed account of all types of resources necessary to achieve a particular goal is required. For modern economic systems, it is important to observe the following basic conditions. First, the obligatory achievement of a correspondence between supply and demand for all types of resources, goods and services and the creation of conditions and prerequisites for achieving such a balance. The external manifestation of the achievement of such a balance in a market economy is the absence of surpluses and, to a lesser extent, deficits. Secondly, the compilation of a system of forecast goals and then their concrete implementation based on the achievements of scientific and technological progress and the scientific and technological revolution. Thirdly, the observance of the correspondence between the factors of production at all levels, their optimal combination also depends on the specifics of each. Thus, in a market economy, when making forecasts, it is necessary to answer the following questions: for whom to carry out production and sales? What to produce? How should production and distribution be carried out?

The task of forecasting includes the identification and study of the needs of all economic objects and subjects, with their subsequent adequate reflection in forecasting systems of various levels and detailing. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the level and structure of private, collective and social needs are in continuous development and must correspond to the real conditions of reproduction processes and the requirements of the economic laws of market relations. Scientifically developed and substantiated forecasts, which are objectively necessary in a market economy, make it possible to optimally achieve the goal of social development in each specific period of time, and serve as the basis for creating an effective balance of economic systems.

Market economic relations involve maintaining optimal relationships between supply and demand, the number of monetary units in circulation and the supply of goods, taking into account the objective conditions for the formation and receipt of income and profit by economic entities, as well as the mechanisms for their distribution. The action of the objective laws of the functioning of a market economy does not deny, but, on the contrary, assigns an active role to the state in the regulation of market economic systems. Scientifically based forecasts correspond to the objective trends of the country's economic and social development, as well as its real economic opportunities. At the same time, it is necessary to achieve strengthening the target orientation of forecasts, based on the optimization of forecast indicators, the use of a systematic integrated approach in the process of substantiating the necessary proportions of social production, improving the methods of forecast work and methodological tools.

In modern conditions, it is relevant to forecast the main components of the economic environment with the help of economic standards and incentives. At the same time, forecasting as a process should be aimed at identifying trends in the development of the economy as a whole, its structure, economic ties, as well as individual enterprises and firms. In terms of the problem we are considering, it can be noted that forecasting is an important and basic element of management at all levels of the management hierarchy. In this regard, macroeconomic indicators should be predicted at the national level, such as the dynamics of general economic indicators, the state and development of market infrastructure, social development, the prospects and dynamics of the development of foreign economic relations, the financial condition of the country and its constituent entities. Based on the specifics of this level of forecasting, this process should be handled by special bodies under the President of the Russian Federation, and forecasts should be discussed in the Federal Assembly.

One of the main proportional correspondences that should be achieved in the process of forecasting market economic systems is the objectively determined relationship between the production and consumption of products and services both in the country as a whole and in the regions, as well as achieving a balance in the development of the main markets: labor, capital, land , goods and services. Various changes occurring in the country's economy under the influence of the whole complex of various reasons are reflected in the structure of economic systems, industries and regions. Therefore, studies of the essence, trends, mechanism, dynamics of economic changes, which necessitate the interpretation and development of the most effective methods for their scientific substantiation and foresight to improve the efficiency of the economy, solve one of the most important tasks of economic forecasting.

The proportions of the distribution of the social product between consumption and accumulation have a great influence on the balanced development of market economic systems. At the same time, one should strive not for the maximum values ​​of accumulation or consumption within a year or several years, but for such a proportionality of these two global processes in a market economy that would ensure the fastest rates of macroeconomic development for a long time. With the problems of determining in the process of forecasting the optimal ratio of the volume and structure of production accumulation in economic systems between consumption and accumulation, the problem of achieving the optimal ratio in each specific period of time is connected. In this regard, the information base is the ratio between the growth rates of capital investments and national income.

At present, the task is to ensure a faster growth of national income in comparison with capital investments. This requires the following measures: to increase the efficiency of the functioning of enterprises in the construction complex, to concentrate limited financial and material resources on the most important areas and start-up facilities, to qualitatively improve the material and material component of fixed capital, to reconstruct existing enterprises on a scientific and technical basis, to reduce the volume of construction in progress, etc. .d. Consequently, the forecasting of progressive shifts in the sectoral structure of the Russian economy, caused by the need to increase the efficiency of production accumulation, comes to the fore. This will make it possible, to a decisive extent, to achieve an optimal balance between accumulation and consumption, without prejudice to either of these aspects of social reproduction.

In the process of forecasting the Russian economy, attention should be paid to the following main macroeconomic proportions, which ultimately determine the effectiveness of the functioning of a market economy: an analysis of the relationship between gross domestic product and national income, as well as their dynamics, makes it possible to identify in the most general form the material intensity of all production within the Russian economy. At the same time, one should strive for faster growth of national income, which is a reflection of the reduction in material costs for the production of a unit of output.

The forecasting system must justify the observance of certain proportions between indicators of social production (GDP, NI) and the main factors of a market economy, such as labor, capital, land, fixed and circulating capital, production and financial capital, etc. Predictive assessments of the state and dynamics of production efficiency indicators both for the Russian economy as a whole and for individual economic entities and objects (region, enterprise) reflect the following indicators: labor productivity, profitability, capital productivity, capital intensity, capital cost structure, etc.

Important macroeconomic indicators that characterize the level of technological progress in economic systems include the structure of fixed assets, the share of depreciation, the rate of obsolescence and physical depreciation of fixed capital. The increase in the active part of fixed assets, the acceleration of the obsolescence of machinery and equipment, and the increase in the share of depreciation contribute to an increase in the growth rate of the physical volume of GDP, which is more important than the growth rate of the compensation fund in the structure of GDP.

In the process of forecasting economic development, it is necessary to optimally take into account the action of a whole complex of conflicting factors, due to the requirements for solving current and future problems of economic development. For example, the task of ensuring high rates of economic growth cannot be fulfilled without a corresponding increase in the share of accumulation in the structure of GDP. At the same time, there is a certain boundary of this process, beyond which there are qualitative and quantitative changes in the economy, leading to a decrease in the efficiency of functioning. In turn, an increase in the share of consumption has a positive effect both on the standard of living of the population in the short term and on the sectoral structure of production and indicators of its efficiency. However, the increase in the share of consumption also has its limits, due to a slowdown in production growth and a corresponding decrease in the growth rate of the standard of living of the population in the long run.

At present, in terms of forecasting the Russian economy, it is relevant to choose such a development option that would allow overcoming the general negative trend of development towards intensification, improving the qualitative indicators of the functioning of economic systems, such as increasing the efficiency of using all types of resources, accelerating the growth rate of national income as an absolute , and relatively per capita, increasing the share of accumulation to scientifically justified values, etc.

Studying the Russian economy, one can identify certain disproportions that adversely affect the development of the economy: a discrepancy between the volume and structure of capital investments and the requirements for ensuring the normal reproduction of fixed capital; imbalance in the structure and volume of fixed capital and labor resources by regions, industries and enterprises; unreasonably high prices for the main types of fuel, energy and raw materials; sharp property differentiation of the population; imperfection of the tax system; imbalance of payment turnover, means of payment and the needs of enterprises and organizations for them; discrepancy between the cash and non-cash turnover of monetary units, between the volumes of national and foreign monetary units in the payment turnover, etc. The listed and other indicators of the imbalance of various aspects of the functioning of market economic systems are due to both objective factors in the functioning of the Russian economy and subjective factors, which manifest themselves in the absence and weak development of the forecasting system for the Russian economy, in an insufficiently balanced and politically conditioned approach to solving a number of complex problems. , insufficiently studied individual and social needs, etc.

Ministries and departments, on the basis of strategic forecasts, should develop mechanisms for their specific implementation in economic practice. The state, on the other hand, focuses its attention on the main areas: creating the prerequisites for high-quality economic growth; preventing a further decline in living standards; increasing the scientific and technical potential of the Russian economy; achieving the competitiveness of Russian products in the domestic and world markets. All these main problems, as world economic experience shows, cannot be solved without observing the principle of centralization of all types of resources in strategic directions on the basis of a balanced forecasting system.

At present, the role of information has increased significantly, so a number of researchers talk about the information explosion, information economy, information philosophy and information civilization. However, forecasting, including economic activity, is carried out in conditions of incomplete information. Forecasting just acts as such a tool that allows all economic entities to minimize the negative consequences of a lack of information support for economic activity. In this case, the ideal situation is when each subject of economic relations knows exactly his place in the market economy in accordance with the resources available to him and the requirements for the quantity and quality of products.

Of great importance is the reflection in the forecasts of the factors of economic and social accelerated development. In the conditions of scientific and technological progress, it is possible to increase the capacity and productivity of equipment more rapidly in comparison with the dynamics of changes in their cost, outpacing the growth of labor productivity in comparison with the growth of capital-labor ratio, there is a decrease in the unit costs of raw materials and materials, as well as their replacement with newer, more economically perfect and environmentally beneficial. Despite these advantages, the achievements of scientific and technical progress are very often not used in specific economic activities, which requires a thorough study and identification of the causes of the negative consequences of scientific and technological progress.

One of the main components of the general economic policy of any state is social policy. In general terms, it is aimed at achieving the normal existence of all citizens of society, ensuring their normal reproduction as individuals and workers in market economic relations. Social policy includes the following main structural issues: income security, labor market, social protection. In this regard, taking into account the Russian specifics, one should be guided by the Convention of the International Labor Organization (ILO) "On the main goals and norms of social policy", in Art. 25 of which it is noted that "a person has the right to such a standard of living, including food, clothing, housing, medical care and social services, as is necessary for the health and well-being of himself and his family, as well as the right to security in case of unemployment, disability widowhood or other loss of livelihood due to circumstances beyond his control."

In the process of forecasting social policy, special attention should be paid directly to the person, who is not only and not so much a "factor" of production, together with capital and land, as the main goal of the social production process. Therefore, in social policy, the state is obliged to reflect such fundamental characteristics of an individual as health, the opportunity to reveal abilities and personal qualities. In addition, such main provisions of social policy as social justice, social protection and social peace act both as goals of social policy and as carriers of generalizing social standards.

The social policy of any state cannot be considered in isolation from its economic policy. In this case, their mutual influence and interdependence should be taken into account. In modern conditions, many social factors of social and individual development, such as: the quality of education of the population, the improvement of working conditions and modes, the increase in the attractiveness and social significance of various types of labor activity, the increase in the efficiency of the health care system, the creative orientation of labor activity, etc. - have a great impact on the level of economic potential of the country.

Rich historical experience shows that the market mechanism in its purest form is capable of providing only minimal social benefits. Therefore, in many countries, the functions of implementing social policy are taken out of the market mechanism and are in the sphere of administrative regulation by the state and its bodies on the basis of scientifically compiled forecasts and plans. In addition, an effective social policy, implemented in all its functional aspects, is the main condition for achieving social peace, which does not allow society to reach the stage of self-destruction or degradation due to objective economic reasons.

In forecasting social policy and its effective and balanced implementation, an in-depth scientific understanding of the structure of ultimate social goals at all hierarchical levels of the economic system is of great importance. To determine the general trajectory of social development, it is necessary to analyze the dynamics of social processes. In this regard, the decisive role is played by social standards for the quantitative and qualitative filling of the standard of living of the citizens of the country based on the minimum and rational norms for the consumption of goods and services, based on the differentiation of the population depending on the standard of living. From the point of view of social development, a scientific classification of social indicators and the time frame for their achievement is necessary both for individual groups of the population and for the whole society. The creation of an effectively functioning mechanism will make it possible to regularly review the goals of social policy, depending on the level of economic and social development of Russian society.

In the process of forecasting social policy, the degree of solution of urgent social problems in each specific period of time, the degree of achievement of social social goals, the vector and specifics of the social processes taking place in Russian society should increasingly be reflected on the basis of comprehensive consideration of the differentiation of the population both by social and professional groups, as well as their income levels. In a market economy of the modern type, households are of great importance as one of the primary cells of society, where social and economic processes take place. Therefore, when predicting social policy, it is advisable to single out this level of their complex manifestation.

One of the important problems that need to be resolved and on this basis the implementation of social policy is the problem of achieving an optimal balance between the goals of social policy and the resource provision for its implementation. The fact is that the resources in the country are limited, so the question of their optimal combination and directions of use is acute. Society must determine the amount of resources allocated for solving the problems of social policy, taking into account its own long-term dynamic development. Predicting social policy, it is necessary to proceed from the following basic provisions: first, in accordance with hierarchical values, to streamline the social needs of everyone; secondly, due to limited resources, determine the order of satisfaction of social needs; thirdly, to evaluate the resource provision, taking into account their shortage; fourthly, to optimally allocate limited resources to overcome their deficit as much as possible in the presence of a certain competition between various social needs. The social activity of the state should be aimed at coordinating these factors.

Based on the trends in the macroeconomic development of the country's economy, the forecast of social policy should determine the boundaries of both working time within a day, week and year, and labor activity throughout the entire period of a citizen's life. Job security policies should include certain job security guarantees for various social groups. To ensure social stability in society, the rights of workers must take precedence over the rights of employers. The dismissal of employees should not be a one-time act, but a balanced and balanced process, which is controlled by the state with a guarantee of the preservation of social rights.

A balanced social policy is unthinkable without an effectively functioning social insurance system aimed at preventing the negative economic and social consequences of life: accident, illness, disability, old age, unemployment and death of the breadwinner. Basic principles for the exercise of rights in this area: the degree of labor contribution of each individual, the requirement of a minimum subsistence level necessary for an acceptable existence.

The effective implementation of social policy presupposes the widespread use of a program-targeted approach that takes into account the multivariance in solving a complex of social problems. Social policy should be based on the principles and normative documents that regulate social and economic relations in the labor market, which determine the solution of the problems faced by workers engaged in wage labor, whose share in many economic systems is significant. Citizens engaged in wage labor should be covered by systems of labor protection, working hours and labor activity; providing a workplace. In economic systems, such conditions for the labor activity of citizens should be created in which there is no violation of their health in the long term, and where, due to industrial and technological reasons, harmful working conditions take place, a certain compensation mechanism should be provided, in which there should be both entrepreneurs and the state are involved.

An important structural component of the general social policy of the state is the labor market policy. The fact is that the problems of employment of the population, income received and distributed, and, accordingly, observance of the principles of social justice are interconnected with the labor market. The main direction here should be forecasting the provision of full employment to all citizens who can and want to work in accordance with their abilities and capabilities. However, this does not exclude the action of certain measures in the labor market that contribute to a real assessment by citizens of both their capabilities and needs in terms of income. For the purposes of an effective labor market policy, it is necessary to ensure: an optimal balance between the availability of jobs and the number of employees; conditions for obtaining the necessary knowledge and skills for the implementation of the chosen work activity; providing work for everyone; minimum income in case of temporary disability.

Considering the state and trends in the development of the labor market in the Russian Federation, it is necessary to pay attention to the problems of unemployment, as well as the social integration of citizens, torn out, due to objective economic reasons, from the usual framework and forms of labor activity, which ensured a more or less prosperous existence. The lack of attention to the problems of social inclusion often leads to a rather paradoxical situation, when unemployment coexists along with a shortage of workers, and the structure of free jobs allows to reduce the unemployment rate.

The majority of the Russian unemployed are not adapted to the rapid change of their professional orientation in order to respond more flexibly to the demand that arises in the labor market. Even the creation of new jobs in the private sector of the economy is only a condition, but by no means a solution to the problem. It is necessary that deep and radical changes take place in people's attitudes towards their own labor activity, and their customs, social attitudes, in the course of implementing social policy, transform into more favorable ones and begin to meet the new norms of industrial relations. At present, the mass of Russian citizens is in the process of a painful search for the life and work coordinates of their own existence. Therefore, the social policy of the state should be aimed at minimizing the negative consequences of the transformation period for both the individual citizen and the whole society.

The implementation of the main directions of social policy requires the improvement of the activities of employment services, the study of the qualitative characteristics of labor resources: professional and sectoral composition, skill level, experience, etc. From these positions, one should evaluate, analyze and predict the structure and dynamics of vacancies. Effective assistance can be provided by a periodically conducted census of open vacancies, data on which should be collected first at the regional level, and then summarized at the all-Russian level. Employment services have every opportunity to obtain operational data on the number, quality characteristics of vacancies and predict structural changes, to conduct appropriate work with unemployed citizens. The creation of automated labor banks within each region of the Russian Federation contributes to the collection of information on the demand and supply of labor resources. Regional labor banks in their totality become the basis for the effective functioning of the all-Russian labor bank, which acts as one of the tools for implementing an effective social policy.

No less important is the guaranteed income policy. The objective economic laws of the market economic mechanism, taken in their pure form, do not guarantee that every citizen will receive such income that allows him and his family members to have an acceptable standard of living in accordance with modern social norms and standards. This situation is due to two main reasons: first, the uneven distribution of factors of production; secondly, varying degrees of scarcity of factors of production. This leads to the fact that differences in income levels cannot be explained only by the level of labor participation of each citizen in market economic relations. Therefore, within the framework of social policy, it is necessary to provide for the public distribution of a certain part of individualized needs in order to provide each citizen with an acceptable set of vital goods.

When developing and implementing social policy, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of the Russian economic system: the differences in the social needs of the population of a particular region and the specific features of each region (national traditions, climatic conditions, demographic indicators, etc.). Normative consumer budgets are associated with the living conditions of the population, the characteristics of consumer needs, the specifics of their volume and structure, the demographic situation of the region, the characteristics of the life of the urban and rural population, natural factors, national and ethnographic characteristics of individual regions.

Forecasting the social development of Russian regions takes into account a number of trends: an increase in the share in the total volume of material consumption; fundamental qualitative changes in groups of needs, in the structure of needs for certain types of goods and services; increasing differentiation of the population by income; changing the structure of income sources, etc. A balanced social policy in the regions creates optimal regional conditions for the reproduction of the population and labor resources. In this regard, it is necessary to provide guarantees to all groups and strata of the population, social support for the able-bodied, targeted social protection of disabled citizens, measures to protect those who find themselves in difficult life situations, etc. This whole set of measures, carried out in a balanced and purposeful manner with appropriate information, financial and resource support, contributes to increasing the effectiveness of social policy both at the regional and national levels.

Difficulties in forecasting social development at the regional level arise due to the fact that the bulk of the existing standards for the consumption of goods and services are not differentiated in the regional aspect and, as a result, the influence of regional factors is not taken into account; there is no systematic normative indicators that are adequate to the system of needs of the population, since they were developed and are being developed by individual ministries and departments without proper mutual coordination and mutual agreement; most of the standards reflect only quantitative, but not qualitative characteristics of consumption processes; some of the standards no longer correspond to modern conditions and scientifically based consumption standards; the application of a number of standards in practice is associated with certain difficulties and requires the collection of additional information.

The Russian economy is faced with the task of determining the range of indicators for the implementation of social policy, giving a clear quantitative and qualitative description of social processes and promising directions for their transformation and achievement. A special place is occupied by target indicators on the state and development of the labor market in Russia in relation to labor activity. The main role is played by the social dominant of the development of economic systems. In the regional aspect, it is due to the fact that the region creates the prerequisites for the comprehensive development of the individual. Regional specificity is also manifested in the fact that methodological methods and forecasting of social development differ depending on the hierarchical level: enterprise, region, country. In particular, objects at the country level are distinguished by a rather high stability of the parameters of social development. Here we can highlight demographic, infrastructural and other indicators. As we move towards the levels of a lower order (country - region - enterprise), the characteristics of social development acquire greater mobility, less stability, which requires more adaptively developed systems of social forecasting, in particular at the regional level.

Of great importance in predicting the social development of the region is the normative method, which is based on the determination of the quantitative characteristics of standards, their volume and structure, based on the study of real processes from the standpoint of achieving a promising social goal. This refers to scientifically based quantitative and qualitative characteristics of achieving the optimal flow of social processes within the region: rational consumption rates; building regulations; standards for the current maintenance of institutions in the sphere of socio-cultural services.

In the conditions of scientifically balanced forecasting of the social development of regions in a market economy, great importance is attached to the study and forecasting of the dynamics of incomes of the population, as well as their regional differences, which determine the ability of the population to meet needs through the purchase of goods and services. In turn, the differentiation of incomes of the population depends on the degree of development of market relations in the region, the state of its economy and its sectoral structure, as well as on the level of development of productive forces. The age structure of the population, its distribution by sources of subsistence, and the level of family load have a certain influence on the level of income. In various regions of the Russian Federation, family types have significant differences in size and composition, which have developed under the influence of a complex set of historical, socio-economic and demographic factors.

When forecasting the social development of the region in order to ensure the consistency of this process, the normative consumer budget of the population is of great importance. It should be a balance system of economic indicators that reflect the volume and structure of scientifically based needs of the population and the corresponding size and structure of income. The normative consumer budget should take into account the consumption of food and non-food products, services, the population's expenses for paying taxes, fees, contributions, etc. This also includes standards for providing the population with housing, services of service enterprises, and transport needs. On the basis of a scientifically substantiated system of standards, the total amount of means of subsistence necessary for the balanced development of each citizen of Russia in each region is determined.

Based on a comparison of the levels of satisfaction of needs by region, a basis is formed for forecasting the volume of vital goods necessary to achieve a certain balance of consumption in various regions of Russia. Forecast estimates help to identify and determine the amount and structure of resources required to solve the main social problems in a particular region.

Compiling scientifically based forecasts of social development in modern conditions requires the availability of a reliable information base that ensures the determination of existing regional differences in the levels of social development. In particular, indications of food consumption are calculated by statistical authorities without taking into account the quality of the latter, their grade, etc., as well as certain individualized characteristics of nutrition processes, which are often the basis of regional differentiation. Households are currently using new consumer durables such as cars, domestic and imported VCRs, tape recorders, sophisticated consumer electronics and electrical equipment, furniture, and so on.

State forecasting of the development of social production exists in all market economy countries. At the government level, radical measures are constantly being taken to eliminate negative trends. And governments are acting in a very decisive way.

After the defeat in the Second World War, Germany until 1948 was a country whose economic problems seemed insoluble during the life of the warring generation. Mass unemployment, empty store shelves, distribution of scarce goods on cards, black market, a lot of depreciated money and galloping inflation. Products became more expensive every day, they could only be purchased through barter deals. The volume of industrial production barely reached half of the pre-war level. No one could have imagined that in less than 10 years the German economy would not only be restored, but would also begin to oust Western countries on the world market. This happened due to the fact that R. Erhard, the creator of the economic policy of post-war Germany, assigned the state an extremely important role.

The experience of the revival of foreign countries is curious. In the Republic of Turkey, as is known, in the early 1970s, a sharp slowdown in the rate of economic development began. Production was reduced, unemployment grew, inflation intensified. All this was accompanied by an exacerbation of social tension. The situation was complicated by a sharp struggle for power between various political parties. In the late 1970s, the country found itself in a deep economic and socio-political crisis. Torgut Ozal, who headed the government at that time, came up with a program for the country's economic development. The modernization of the production base, the transition to an open economy, and the increase in the competitiveness of national entrepreneurship both in the domestic and foreign markets were envisaged.

The planned organization became the economic lever for the development of the economy. Only strict state regulation was not allowed. The government of Torgut Ozal did not embark on a destructive experiment with wholesale privatization, and now the public and private sectors successfully coexist here, competing and complementing each other. In a short period of time, Turkey has achieved impressive success in the economy. The impressive results of the reforms, the essence of which was the liberalization of the economy and the introduction of a free market, have been called the "Turkish economic miracle." If in 1979 there was a fall in the gross industrial product, then in subsequent years its annual growth was 5.7%, while industrial production increased by an average of 8% annually, and agriculture by 3%. Turnover in foreign trade increased 5 times, and the share of industrial goods amounted to more than 80%.

More examples can be given: Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, other countries of the new industrial zone of Asia. South Korea and Taiwan prioritize material production and are close to joining the ranks of advanced, technologically advanced countries. Singapore, which has a more modest scientific and technical potential, prefers to specialize as a strong financial partner. But what these countries have in common is that all of them actively pursued the policy of state capitalism during the reforms and achieved the maximum effect with the help of this lever. Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia, which are approaching them in terms of economic development, are developing according to a similar pattern. The population here is given the opportunity to prove themselves in the field of business at different levels - from participation in large and small companies to street trading. But the economy of the whole country is managed not by one or two professionals, but by highly qualified officials who were educated in the most prestigious foreign higher educational institutions. In Europe, such processes could be observed in Spain after Franco's departure from the political arena, in Chile during the years of Pinochet's rule, and now in China, where economic reforms started in the 1980s by the "renovation architect" Deng Xiaoping are being successfully implemented. Of course, the implementation of reforms here is also accompanied by social tension, the number of labor conflicts is growing, mass unemployment is becoming real, since at least one third of state-owned enterprises are threatened with bankruptcy. But anyone who has been to China never ceases to be amazed by the dramatic progress in the economy, as well as the fact that a billion people of this country are getting out of poverty and are not afraid of hunger. How long has a "cup of rice" been the main wealth of a Chinese worker, a bicycle was considered a luxury item, and the possession of a sewing machine gave the owner reason to classify himself as a major owner!..

In post-war Japan, against the background of hyperinflation, the basis of which was the entry into circulation of a large money supply, there was a sharp drop in production. Under such conditions, the Japanese government did not liberalize prices, on the contrary, introduced their state regulation, and a number of goods, taking into account the characteristics of each of them, were distributed by cards. In August 1946, state economic regulatory bodies were created - the Headquarters for Economic Stabilization and the Price Directorate, whose tasks included direct state control over the processes taking place in the country's economy. Many concerns were also created, which ensured a fair distribution of the most scarce products. Of course, officially controlled prices had to be constantly adjusted, taking into account the dynamics of the processes taking place on the "black" market.

Only after the efforts to increase the production potential yielded positive results, the possibility of directing goods to the market was restored, in 1949 powerful deflationary measures were carried out, an over-balanced budget was adopted (the so-called "Dodge line" was implemented). Thus, an end was put to inflationary processes, the state control over prices and the card distribution of goods lost their meaning. State concerns were gradually reformed and abolished. In the economic life of today's Japan, the following picture is observed: unemployment is growing, it is about 3%, consumer spending, exports, corporate and bank incomes are falling. At the same time, the trade surplus is declining in both dollar and yen terms, housing construction is booming, and the savings rate has stabilized at around 15% of net household income, which keeps consumer spending at 57% of the country's GDP. There are sufficient funds to support the manufacturing and banking sectors. The government's deregulation is aimed at increasing competition, creating new industries, opening up wider access for imports and foreign capital, which should ensure that extremely high prices that affect the ability to pay are reduced. Not the last role in the "economic miracle" of Japan, the author of which Professor Ohito is rightly called, was played by the long-term policy of encouraging the development of higher education and scientific research, the success of which is now known to everyone, played by the government of the country. Thus, state planning and forecasting cannot be recognized as the antipode of a market economy.

The developed long-term forecast of socio-economic development (including long-term indicators) should serve as the basis for the effective functioning of ministries, departments, regional and federal authorities. The long-term forecast, including long-term use indicators, serves as the basis for the current (annual) forecast of socio-economic development, design and construction of new enterprises and reconstruction of existing ones. In the process of analyzing the available information, it is possible to determine various components of the standard of living of various groups of the population, classified, for example, by income level. To determine averages per capita, trends in the proportions of the distribution of the entire population should be taken into account.

For the purposes of socio-economic forecasting, it is important to consider the needs in terms of their maximum satisfaction, regardless of income, prices, etc. In this aspect, it is necessary to strive to express the various degrees of their comprehensive satisfaction for the most important consumer goods and services. In turn, the level of per capita consumption of goods and services largely determines the degree and level of development of the productive forces in society.

Considering the needs, it should be noted that in an innovative economy they are constantly changing, depending, in particular, on the level of development of the productive forces and production relations. In each specific period of time that is analyzed, the needs within the entire society are a single value in terms of the required practical accuracy for the purposes of socio-economic forecasting. In the process of forecasting innovative development, it is necessary to take into account changes in needs, and these changes are determined by the actions of such factors, the influence of which cannot be preliminarily assessed. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that no matter what new needs arise, they must be satisfied as fully and quickly as possible, as new needs arise, new opportunities for their satisfaction also arise, and in an innovative economy, the means of satisfying needs may arise before the needs themselves. At the same time, in order to predict socio-economic development, it is sufficient to know what products and services can be produced in order to determine specific needs.

From the standpoint of taking into account objective factors that affect the differentiation of the dynamics of indicators of the living standards of the population, which are necessary in the process of forecasting socio-economic development, the following are distinguished: the level actually available in the year preceding the forecast period; 2) rational norms of per capita consumption of products and services in the same nomenclature; 3) qualitative differences in the use values ​​of products and services from the standpoint of approaching one or another rational consumption norms. In order to determine the arguments of the functions reflected in the per capita consumption dynamics curves, one should proceed from the stages of achieving individualization in the consumption of goods and services.

The problem of determining differentiated curves of change in the value of individual indicators of per capita consumption allows solving the problem associated with determining the change in the complex of indicators of per capita consumption as additional supply increases. Here, the following circumstance should be noted that it is inappropriate to build the target function of the forecast of socio-economic development from predicting changes in demand or consumption volumes when prices and incomes change. The fact is that the changes in prices and incomes themselves determine the formation of demand in accordance with the level of development of the productive forces. In this case, the task is to determine how the proportions of consumption can change as a result of changes in supply (production possibilities).

Thus, the target function of the forecast of socio-economic development should be reflected in a certain system of per capita consumption of products and services, differentiating those that change from basic values ​​to criteria values, depending on the degree of urgency to achieve the criteria values. At the same time, although there is no linear dependence between the various components of the intermediate complexes of these quantities and the objective function, the use of linear approximation can give acceptable results with sufficient accuracy. In this regard, it should also be noted that although it is wrong to mix needs and demand, at the same time, information about the demand is necessary to construct the needs functions. In this regard, it is quite legitimate to use data from various budget and other surveys, which are of great importance in the study of demand.

In the methodological aspect, the problems of optimal socio-economic forecasting using the criterion of stages of increase (decrease) in the standard of living depend on three main factors: determining options for the long-term development of productive forces; identifying and determining quantitative relationships between the options for the development of productive forces and the stages of increasing (decreasing) the standard of living; transformation of projected material and labor proportions into commodity-money proportions of a market economy.

In the course of forecasting, it is also necessary to take into account conditions external to the predicted system, which are not initial conditions for making a forecast, but are subject to forecasting, and at the same time cannot be obtained in the course of forecasting. These are the indicators that are determined by economic ties, firstly, with developed countries, secondly, with developing countries, and thirdly, the formation of which (indicators) is influenced by the international position of the country itself and the prospects for its development. These indicators are included in forecast calculations as predetermined values ​​of material and labor resources. Their quantitative determination can be carried out both in absolute and relative values. For example, those export-import relations that are reflected in international treaties can be carried out in absolute terms. In addition, they can also be expressed as a share of domestic production and consumption. A similar approach can be applied to the enterprises of the defense complex in terms of their definition in absolute and relative terms.

When forecasting socio-economic development, one should strive to determine the products that, of course, will be produced by enterprises. At the same time, in order to comply with the principle of variability, the use of a greater or lesser part of the equipment operating at enterprises should be evaluated. At the same time, that part of production capacities, which is a certain excess of production fixed capital over needs, should be included in the forecast of socio-economic development as resources, the emergence of which is due to the manifestation of non-variable production volumes. In addition, one should take into account the fact that all elements that vary in the economy locally (in industries, regions, enterprises) must be justified through variant comparisons.

Long-term forecasting is also influenced by the duration of construction and the timing of the disposal of fixed capital. In this aspect, the following are subject to accounting: the ratio between the average annual and annual commissioning of the components of fixed capital, as well as the ratio between the average annual and annual retirement of fixed capital. At the same time, the rationing of state savings, with the difference of those parts of it that are taken into account in a certain way in the limiting norms, provides for the formation of options for a system of standards for capital, material and labor intensity (FMT), the basis for which are forecasts of scientific and technical development of economic sectors and regions countries.

Each option for the implementation of savings corresponds to a certain stage of the complex of norms of per capita consumption. Here, one should also take into account the fact that the relationship between production accumulation and the level of consumption does not manifest itself directly, but indirectly, through changes in the FMT norms. At the same time, there is a need to take into account the forecast of scientific and technological progress and innovative changes, on the basis of which it is possible to determine the development in dynamics. It is also necessary to include variants of norms in newly created enterprises, rather than direct accumulation, into the regulatory framework. In the aspect of interaction between innovative and scientific and technological development and social development, it is required to evaluate it over several years, and not just one year. At the same time, it is necessary to predict the dynamics of the standard of living depending on the predicted variant of the change in the FMT over the years of the forecast period. In the aspect of taking into account in the forecasts of socio-economic development of savings in the non-productive sphere, the FMT norms in the capital construction of objects of this purpose, as well as the FMT norms of the corresponding services, are analyzed.

Considering the main problems of socio-economic forecasting and the influence of the accumulation factor on economic processes, it can be noted that the total mass of accumulation is rather difficult to predict, although individual elements of accumulation should be set in advance in the form of certain norms. For example, with regard to backlogs, one can note the presence of such a contradiction that, on the one hand, the creation of backlogs takes place entirely in the forecast year, and, on the other hand, its use - in the years following the forecast.

In the aspect of socio-economic forecasting, the FMT sectoral norms are of great methodological importance, which, in turn, depend on the following main factors: the presence of an objective basis for the formation of variants of these norms for newly introduced, expanded and reconstructed enterprises, which makes it possible to determine the amount of savings allocated for new construction , expansion and reconstruction of enterprises; the main sources of information for the formation of these norms; criteria for selecting options for industry standards for their inclusion in the regulatory framework; identifying common features and characteristic features of the formation of variants of norms and taking into account these features in specific forecasts, the main methods of mutual agreement in each version of the forecast of these norms.

Optimal socio-economic forecasting is a strictly sequential process, at each stage of which there are and use limited indicators formed at previous stages. Movement involves the use of available and obtained data in conjunction with additional data obtained independently of predictive developments. In a strictly abstract sense, in modern economic systems, the optimal forecasting of socio-economic development consists in determining the best possible option for using limited resources according to the criterion of the greatest effect in terms of meeting needs, and not in determining a possible option for minimizing social costs.

In the macroeconomic aspect, it is not possible to determine in advance the directions of minimizing costs (unlike the enterprise) due to the fact that changes in the range of products and services themselves very often act as cost minimization factors. Of great importance for the processes of optimal socio-economic forecasting for the formation of the regulatory framework is also the scientific prediction of the prospects for the innovative development of the economic system.

The norms of capital intensity, developed for each structural element of fixed capital, create the basis for the relationship in the forecasts of capital investments and production volumes. This, in turn, makes it possible not to specifically deal with the calculations of production capacity balances. When determining the norms of labor intensity in forecasts, one should start from the indicator expressed in man-years, with the existing length of the working day and working week. From this it is possible, in particular, to determine the volume of production predicted at the initial stage, which is equal to the product of the specified labor intensity by the average annual number of workers employed in the economy. The calculation of FMT norms is required not only in the manufacturing sector, but also in the service sector. Changes in the norms used in the process of socio-economic forecasting, depending on various options, are discrete in nature, so mathematical programming methods can be effectively applied here.

When developing a forecast of socio-economic development, a calculation of material and labor proportions is made. In this case, the following main indicators can be used: the size and composition of the population, basic production and non-production assets, stocks and reserves at enterprises and organizations of various forms of ownership, construction in progress and work in progress, data on explored mineral reserves, and some others.

Introducing into the forecasts of socio-economic development the standards of construction time and distribution of costs associated with the reproduction of fixed assets, it is necessary to take into account the time factor in the forecasts, which is a condition for ensuring the dynamism of both the forecasting processes themselves and the forecasts themselves. It should be noted that there are no restrictions on labor resources in our forecasts. As a result, the system becomes indefinite. At the same time, due to the presence of such uncertainty, the deep meaning of socio-economic development forecasts is revealed.

In order to predict the total average annual number of labor resources, they can be taken as pre-fixed values ​​that do not depend on the size of the unknown part of the production of various goods. These include military personnel, employees of state institutions, students, the unemployed, etc., in addition, they include those labor resources that are to be determined on the basis of the norms of labor intensity of the non-variable part of production. The variable part of labor resources cannot be distributed by industry before the start of forecasting. And at the same time, it is precisely this part of the labor resources that corresponds to varying norms of labor intensity.

The dynamism of forecasts of socio-economic development is also determined by the dynamism of the norms of capital, material and labor intensity. Here it should be noted that the dynamism of the non-variant part of the forecast is due to its dependence on the timing of the improvement of existing enterprises and on the timing of the commissioning of new enterprises. The dynamism of the variant part of the forecast is due to the inclusion in the normative part of the forecast of such variants of the basic norms that are real in terms of the construction time of enterprises.

The specific weights of production for various options can be determined in advance only very conditionally. But nothing else remains to be done as long as there is no opportunity to comprehensively resolve the issue of the optimal ratio of various options. The optimal combination of options predetermines the objectively necessary distribution of capital investments between industries.

The optimal size of the projected production of products and services can be found among all possible proportions between the volumes of output of each type of product or service for various options for his or her production. In this regard, one should rely on the proportions of various technological methods in the production of predicted products.

The forecasting of commodity-money proportions will be the closer to the optimal, the more accurately it will correspond to the optimal material-labor proportions. At the same time, changes in prices, their systems and levels, tariffs, wage rates and all types of expenses in all spheres and sectors of the economy are subject to forecasting, and the option that is most beneficial to all economic entities should be chosen.

It should also be noted here that during the forecast period certain changes in both the external and internal environment of a particular economic system may occur, which necessitates the introduction of appropriate adjustments to the already compiled forecasts of socio-economic development. In this regard, it can be noted that a fairly large number of emerging adjustments undergo a certain localization and absorption due to reserves within the economic system, which, in turn, determines the stability of the functioning of economic systems. Thus, it can be determined that in many cases market proportions are established on the basis of the established material and labor proportions, when the latter strive for their best realization in a market economy. There are two interrelated processes at work here: proportions affect prices, and prices affect proportions. Market relations are the decisive mechanism in modern economic systems, through which the distribution, exchange and consumption of the commodity mass created in society is carried out.

Cost categories are inherent in the entire modern economy, since, for example, the ratio of prices for any two goods is largely determined by the ratio of prices of the entire range of commodity mass. Individual prices, influencing demand, also indirectly affect aggregate demand. Similarly, the level of wages of any category of workers cannot be determined without reference to the levels of other categories of workers. The peculiarity of prices as an economic category in the aspect of socio-economic forecasting is also manifested in the fact that they cannot be predetermined in the regulatory framework of the forecast. The forecast can and should reflect price changes, their dynamics and sizes, due to both the immanent essence of money and the accumulated changes in the proportions of material and labor costs in the production of various goods and services. Therefore, in forecasts of socio-economic development, one should not limit oneself to the balance sheet equality of cash income and expenditure.

In order to carry out socio-economic forecasting, an analysis of the correspondence of basic prices to projected material and labor balances can be applied. In particular, if there is a discrepancy between basic prices and the predicted dynamics of price ratios, then it can be expressed in a relatively sharper increase in the profitability of certain types of goods and services, in the differentiation of wages for various categories of workers. At the same time, if the material component of the input-output balance requires its own expression in basic prices, then the labor balance - in the basic values ​​of average annual income. It is in prices that the realization of material and labor proportions takes place, since it is prices in modern economic systems that predetermine both the income and expenses of various spheres of social production, regions, industries, enterprises and individuals, as well as the predicted profitability of their economic activity, and therefore and directions of the most profitable investment of capital.

When developing a forecast of socio-economic development, various options for assessing resources and factors of production arise. At the same time, the relationship between valuations and prices is carried out in an indirect form by those factors that lie in the spheres of distribution and exchange. In turn, the desire of economic entities for the optimality of costs also implies the desire to achieve optimality in prices when implementing the processes of socio-economic forecasting.

When predicting the income of workers in various industries, one should take into account the reduction and complexity of labor. Here you can take the salary of a certain category of workers as a unit of remuneration. In this case, the reduction coefficients for each industry can be taken as the ratio of the average wage in each industry to such earnings, which is taken as a unit.

With regard to retail prices in the economy, it can be noted that the requirements due to the operation of the laws of supply and demand can be taken into account only after the total amount of commodity expenditures of the population has been revealed. In principle, this goes beyond the general balance sheet, but the total amount of commodity expenditures must be determined in conjunction with the wholesale price system. Therefore, at the beginning of forecasting, it is advisable to consider cost relations as such. At the same time, it is possible to find out on what scale redistribution processes are carried out in the economic system.

On the basis of predictive estimates, a financial balance can be drawn up, which will show how the sale of goods at production costs is consistent with the laws of supply and demand. At the same time, it should be noted that the redistribution in the optimal forecast depends on the final use of national income, and not vice versa. Economically, this situation is quite understandable. The fact is that in the economy the distribution of costs between various spheres, industries, regions cannot objectively correspond to the proportions of production. This is due to the need to implement redistributive processes between economic entities, due to individual, collective, regional, sectoral and social needs for specific goods and services.

In modern economic systems, the redistribution of value through prices is carried out in the following main directions. Firstly, the cost of a surplus product created at a separate enterprise, industry, region is not equal to the cost of a surplus product that is used at an enterprise, industry, region. Therefore, prices are set so that each enterprise or industry seeks to fully cover its expenses at the expense of its income. Secondly, the ratios of the costs of various goods do not coincide with the ratios of supply and demand for given incomes of economic entities, including the population, and therefore retail prices deviate from the cost even if the sum of prices of all goods sold to the population is completely equal in value.

Therefore, in order to predict socio-economic development, it is necessary to initially resolve the issue of wholesale prices simultaneously with the predicted total amount of deviations of the mass of goods sold to the population at retail prices from the same mass of goods at wholesale prices. Then it is necessary to predict the distribution of the resulting total amount of deviations of retail prices from wholesale prices between individual groups of goods. In the conditions of modern economic systems, initially the prices of enterprises and industries are set in such a way that they are beneficial for both the producer and the consumer both in competitive markets and in markets where monopolistic manifestations are present to one degree or another. Therefore, when forecasting, one should first of all proceed from the fact that prices tend to a level that is beneficial for producers from the standpoint of the optimality of material relationships.

Forecasts and plans are an effective tool, as a result of which significant changes occur in modern economic systems due to a certain change in the vector of economic movement, as well as the prevention of undesirable phenomena and changes. After the implementation of the forecasts, it becomes possible to identify and, accordingly, overcome the reasons that impede the implementation of effective changes. Forecasting in modern conditions is a tool for the implementation of rational activities aimed at a certain foresight of the future state of modern economic systems in terms of achieving their most efficient functioning in each specific period of time.

Forecasting as a tool of innovation policy should include a number of studies and activities aimed at developing a specific set of solutions to the problems and tasks of an individual, team, population of a settlement, region, country and the whole world in terms of their innovative development and improving the efficiency of functioning. At present, it can be noted that forecasting is one of the most important social functions. It helps to predict the behavior of those responsible for carrying out public policy, to determine what citizens in government are actually doing and what can be expected of them. Forecasting should always lead to the implementation of certain changes, and not be aimed at conserving the current state, "status quo". Otherwise, forecasting degenerates into its opposite essence - anarchy and chaos. In any case, where a person seeks to achieve a certain balance and purposefulness of both his own and social activities, he must use such a tool as forecasting.

From the standpoint of state management of modern economic systems, two main situations can be distinguished: firstly, when one or another state person dictates his understanding of economic processes to workers involved in forecasting processes, and, secondly, when certain forecasts are formulated in the process of working on forecasts. conclusions and provisions that signal the need to make adjustments to the economic policy of the government, and are also certain prerequisites for non-antagonistic influence on politicians in order to transform the economic course caused by the action of objective economic laws. The fact is that in the process of forecasting, it becomes possible to determine the moment of transition of quantitative changes to qualitative ones, in particular at the social level, and as a result, the adoption of certain measures aimed at evolutionary social changes. Otherwise, this process can take on an uncontrollable, and very often even destructive, character (for example, a revolution or civil war, a conflict within an enterprise or organization).

In the process of forecasting, certain needs are met, among which the following main ones can be distinguished: integration, coordination, and uncertainty reduction. To meet the need for integration of various economic entities, forecasting gives the latter the opportunity to exchange information and achieve mutually acceptable deals and agreements. In particular, at the national level, in the process of forecasting, the government gets the opportunity to identify and resolve economic problems that are relevant to the majority of economic entities, carry out various consultations with all interested parties, as a result of which it becomes possible to achieve certain compromise solutions. In the process of such forecasting, it is currently relevant to take into account strategic options for economic development in order to reduce the negative impact of the uncertainty factor in the development of the technological and economic environment.

Integration problems are especially relevant in modern economic systems, where economic entities are relatively weakly interconnected due to the action of objective market laws. And besides, there are a number of organizations and structures within which there is also a relatively weak connection between structural units, although the entire organization is called upon to solve a certain set of problems. In this regard, we can cite the government, which consists of relatively autonomous divisions-ministries, each of which is forced to solve both a global economic problem, such as combating unemployment, and local (ministerial) problems, such as the development of a particular industry. In such conditions, forecasts and the process of forecasting can and should act as the unifying principle that contributes to the achievement of a socially significant goal. This also leads to the fact that in the process of integration, the efficiency of the functioning of the entire organization increases, i.e. integration function is implemented.

Forecasts in modern economic systems perform an important conciliatory function. The fact is that a significant part of economic and political problems has a pronounced complex character, associated with the distribution of power, assessment of the situation and the choice of the most optimal ways to solve a particular problem. At the same time, the general goals, although they can be specific and clear, are not acceptable, optimal and achievable for everyone. Therefore, very often various disagreements and disputes arise in one form or another between various departments and organizations involved in solving a problem, based on the contradictory nature of their own interests. Such a mismatch very often leads to the fact that even if there is a clearly defined goal or task, they are either not solved at all or are not solved in the most optimal way. In such situations, very often it is not the solution of the problem that is important, but the mechanism for its optimal resolution.

In this regard, it should be noted that forecasting is not a panacea for all ills, including economic problems. At the same time, in an effort to reach agreement, which is pursued in the process of forecasting, bottlenecks are identified, various approaches to solving a particular problem are identified, and, in addition, the decisions made become binding on all parties interested and participating in this process. While forecasting is a path to new or better solutions, it allows for agreement on the direction of a specific development trajectory, rather than another rather abstract problem of optimization and reconciliation of different interests.

Although the whole variety of phenomena and processes in modern economic systems is at first glance rather chaotic and unpredictable, their manifestations are due to the action of certain economic laws that can be identified, studied and used in the processes of improving the efficiency of economic systems. And here the main tools to reduce uncertainty are forecasts and forecasting processes. It is no coincidence that we separate these two concepts, since in the process of forecasting a certain forecast may be made, or it may not be made due to the action of a whole complex of reasons, both objective and subjective. The results achieved in the very process of forecasting can be used in the process of economic activity. There may also be a situation where there is a forecast, but it is not realized in any way for its intended purpose. At the same time, certain provisions of such a forecast can also be used in economic activity.

Forecasts and forecasting processes help economic entities that use them to reduce the negative manifestations of the uncertainty factor by using objective laws, the ability to manage the processes of environmental change, taking advantage of global vision, increasing the ability to integrate, finding ways for optimal movement, and not marking time; teach not to be afraid of problems and the need to resolve them; they give reasonable confidence in their actions, and not unbridled excitement, which is expressed in the absence of fear of committing wrong actions, paralyzing the will and consciousness; do not allow bureaucratic manifestations to develop widely; develop adaptive abilities and capabilities, thinking, knowledge and the ability to implement a variety of innovations.

Forecasting also performs an important function of organizational learning, manifesting itself in a certain learning and adaptation of the organization. Forecasting allows economic entities in the process of constant adaptation to changes in the environment to maintain continuity, viability and efficiency of functioning. Therefore, it is no coincidence that it is noted that "in situations of this kind, the planning process ... can reduce uncertainty and increase the ability of management to introduce innovations."*

* Benveniste G. Mastering the planning policy: Translated from English / Ed. M. Kalantarova. M., 1994. P.34.

Considering forecasting, it should be noted that it has common features, principles and patterns, regardless of the level of its application, be it an individual, an enterprise or a government. Always and everywhere in the process of forecasting, rational and systematic thinking must be involved. This can only be achieved through targeted data collection and identification of alternatives to achieve goals. Differences are determined by circumstances, structure, quality and content of decisions.

Forecasting in modern economic systems can be subdivided depending on the following main factors: the degree of coverage of forecasted phenomena, specified time intervals, and the level of involvement of economic entities.

The extent to which forecast events are covered depends on and determines the magnitude of the forecast events. In particular, the same economic phenomenon, such as inflation, can be considered both in isolation from other economic phenomena and in relation to other macroeconomic phenomena, in connection with macroeconomic and political phenomena, as well as in mutual connection with the processes taking place in world economic system. This list of coverage levels could go on and on. Time intervals specify certain periods of time, such as a year or 10 years, etc., within which forecasting is carried out. The need to set time boundaries in the process of forecasting is associated with the existence of certain limitations of the forecasting processes, such as the limited time and money available to the subjects involved in the forecasting processes. In addition, such a factor as a certain inadequacy of the knowledge that is used in the forecasting process, which is necessary for effective forecasting and which arise in the forecasting process, also has an influence here. Of great importance is the fact that it is really impossible to evaluate all the existing options for solving a particular problem, observing the condition of optimizing their search. For example, many military battles could continue to the present time without moving into an active stage due to the fact that the military leaders would be engaged in the search and evaluation of various options. Modern computers, when evaluating chess positions, are still able to evaluate the situation on the chessboard and its possible changes only 8 moves ahead.

The level of involvement of economic entities depends on the quantitative and qualitative composition of certain economic entities within which forecasting is carried out. It can be an individual, an enterprise, a group of enterprises, an industry, a region, a country, the entire world economy, only government organizations or government organizations and private enterprises, etc. etc. in all conceivable variety of possible combinations of all existing economic entities.

Forecasting in an innovative economy does not end only with the stage of issuing recommendations and determining the trajectory of movement. At present, such forecasting functions as monitoring and adjusting the processes of forecasting are becoming increasingly important. Therefore, in general terms, the forecasting process can be represented as follows (Fig. 1).

Rice. 1. Forecasting process

In the process of forecasting, one can also note a rather close relationship between the goals of the forecast and the technology for achieving them. Here we can single out the following main extreme situations that determine the specifics of forecasting processes in each specific case: goals are clearly defined, there are optimal technologies for achieving them, which are well mastered; the goals are unclear, the technologies are absent and, accordingly, have not been mastered in any way. Between these two main situations there are already other situations, for example, when the goals are not clearly defined and cannot be formalized, but there are quite clearly developed technologies for achieving them.

The forecasting process in modern economic systems is very often able to cause a multiplier effect, which manifests itself in the fact that the expectations of the implementation of the forecast, the increase in the likelihood of its implementation as the target date approaches under the influence of certain objective circumstances, increases the interest in its implementation of all subjects, as directly involved in its compilation and implementation, as well as completely outsiders, but which can receive certain benefits from the successful achievement of predictive characteristics. In this regard, one can cite the example of many countries where non-state enterprises and organizations, private entrepreneurs in their economic activities are guided by government forecasts for the development of the economy. This, in turn, contributes to the achievement of forecast indicators, although not all economic entities may agree with the methods for achieving them. The opposite situation is the resistance to the implementation of forecasts and the process of their implementation, which also has a multiplier effect. For example, in Russia, many citizens wittingly or unwittingly resist the implementation of forecasts in terms of expanding the field of private property, which in no way contributes to their effective implementation.

Forecasting, like any scientific tool for cognizing real objectivity, has its own methodology, which consists in the most general form in the methodology of bringing adaptation processes to existing and probable changes and in the principles and methods determined by the specific features of forecasting activity at all levels of its implementation. Many forecasting methods used to a large extent depend on the stage from which the forecasting process began or in which it is in each specific period of time. In this regard, it is necessary to warn against the common misconception that specialists in the field of forecasting, using their methodological techniques, are able to provide answers to all questions. Some citizens even have blind faith in the capabilities of forecasters, just as the opposite of such sentiments is the opinion that forecasts and forecasting in general are absolutely ineffective and useless.

The real state of affairs, of course, lies between these two polar points of view, which lies in the fact that, with a conditional degree of probability, forecasts can analyze changes in economic systems, as well as their future state. This is facilitated by the use of such recognized methods as system analysis or optimization, cost and income analysis, analysis of trends in innovations and regressions, economic, mathematical, economic and mathematical modeling, intersectoral balances, etc. It should also be noted that no matter how good the method, model or applied technical means, all this is only a prerequisite for effective forecasting. Forecasting itself will be just an abstract construction if the huge variety of economic and social reality is not taken into account in the process of its implementation.

It is necessary to distinguish between methods of forecasting, among which two main ones can be distinguished: static and active. In the first case, it is assumed that the information, experience and analysis obtained in the process of forecasting will be used by persons and organizations interested in them. In the second case, the subjects carrying out various stages of forecasting have the possibility of a certain influence both on the process of making certain decisions and on the course of the implementation of forecasts. At the same time, it should be taken into account that active approaches to forecasting allow the subjects participating and interested in these processes to achieve a greater adaptive capacity. Therefore, active forecasting techniques imply, in many cases, the direct participation of forecasting specialists in the processes of implementing and achieving the goals of forecasts. At the same time, forecasting processes very often begin from their static stage and then only move into their active stage, i.e. static forecasting techniques are an integral and integral phase of active forecasting.

Considering forecasting, one should especially emphasize the fact that it is one of the most important management functions in modern economic systems and its role is becoming increasingly stronger as economic systems achieve the innovative nature of their own functioning. And besides, as already noted, forecasting is a tool for achieving change, which is the basis for achieving social and economic progress. Forecasting is also quite closely interconnected with learning processes, without which effective forecasting is unthinkable. In this regard, it can be noted that "good projects arise from good ideas, and good ideas need to be invented ... when we do not know how to proceed, we need to acquire problem-solving skills. It is necessary not just to learn, but to try new approaches, to experiment and innovate. Too often, planners feel they are being forced to find answers when they don't actually exist. Once we understand the importance of learning to plan, we can make better use of the time and resources needed to do so."*

* There. P.53.

In terms of the effective implementation of management functions, forecasting allows economic entities to achieve optimal adaptive capacity, constantly identify emerging opportunities, generate and implement a variety of innovations, and use various information and situational analyzes in practice. Therefore, it is no coincidence that "planners become agents of learning and adaptation within the organization. Their duty is to ensure the organization's long-term adaptability to the surrounding reality. Their task is to avoid repeating mistakes and seize emerging opportunities." * Planners, by their actions, form future values, which imposes they have a huge responsibility.

* There. P.55.

Like any other tool, forecasting is not without certain shortcomings associated with the subjectivity of those who carry it out. This is manifested in the fact that in certain situations, forecasting does not pursue the goal of knowing objective reality, but purely subjective attitudes, goals and objectives of individuals and organizations interested in the results of predictive assessments that are favorable for themselves. In addition, individuals and organizations that carry out forecasting, not seeing effective ways to solve the problems posed, can, using purely technical solutions, implement forecasting that leads to the achievement of a specific result, which is not a solution to the problem for which forecasting was carried out. The interest in meeting all the needs of customers often leads to the fact that, as a result of forecasting, such forecasts are born that take into account all conceivable and unimaginable wishes of customers, while at the same time, for this reason, there are no specific mechanisms and methods for achieving forecast targets.

Based on the existence of shortcomings in forecasting and the possibility of using it for selfish individual or collective purposes, it becomes necessary to operate a certain protective system against unscrupulous forecasting, especially when it is carried out in relation to socially significant tasks. In this aspect, both the wide openness of the forecasting process itself and the need to involve several independent state or political groups in its implementation can provide some assistance. Of great importance is also the development of a system of moral and ethical responsibility of persons engaged in forecasting in modern conditions, as well as certain professional norms and rules.

The process of implementing the program settings within a certain economic system depends to a large extent on the degree of acceptance of the main results of the forecasts by the members of this or that organization. Moreover, in this aspect, it is obligatory not to participate in forecasting, but to achieve a certain compromise in relation to its main results. In this regard, it should also be noted that forecasting, along with the necessary certain openness of this process, also implies its closeness, which is due to its specific objective features. In the same way that many citizens keep their plans for their own lives secret for the time being, forecasting, as a process, involves in certain situations the participation of a limited circle of interested subjects in it. The fact is that, in principle, it is impossible to please everyone and in everything, but nonetheless, striving for this is not forbidden to anyone, but only welcomed. If, even in a family, the spouse very often keeps her husband in the dark about the plan for spending the income received by the spouses, then on a more global level there is no reason to necessarily strive for wide openness.

In this regard, one should agree with the opinion that "the process of inventing the future cannot be open and demonstrative, because it is unforeseen, creative and based on the development of new ideas and the use of new opportunities ... Change management begins with trial informal actions. It conducted semi-hiddenly, the result is unknown for the time being, although ideas circulate.

* There. P.66.

Consideration of forecasts as tools for cognizing objective reality and trends in its development and, on this basis, a certain foresight of the future, leads us to an assessment of the role and significance of the so-called utopian forecasts, which will never be realized or their implementation is possible in the distant, boundless future. Such forecasts are very often unrealistic, as they are based on utopian ideas, as a result of which they are supported by a limited circle of subjects, while at the same time steps can be taken to implement them. The history of mankind knows many such utopias, which contributed to the achievement of greater harmony in human society in each specific period of time. In this regard, it can be noted that although the communist idea turned out to be a utopia, but in the course of its practical implementation, many people around the world got at their disposal much more in terms of disposing of individual and social wealth than would have been possible in the absence of it.

Utopian forecasts do not contribute to reducing the uncertainty of the future, but they have important functions, among which the following should be noted: they act as certain symbols of desirable results both for representatives of various minorities in the structure of the social organism, and for the majority. In this case, forecasts are possible scenarios for the development of the future of various organizations. The next function of utopian forecasts is that they provide food for creative exercise and reflection. In this case, it becomes possible to remove almost all restrictive barriers and conventions. No one in the world assumed the collapse of the USSR, and the compilers of such forecasts were called utopians, nevertheless, the flight of scientific thought in this case was not limited by any framework, just as without limiting yourself to anything, you can make a utopian forecast of the collapse of China or the United States and predict what might happen after that.

The social function of utopian forecasts is specially highlighted. The fact is that certain social innovations were preceded by social utopias that are quite far away on the historical time scale from their practical implementation. In particular, the utopians of the Middle Ages in their utopian dreams, talking about a just communist society, came to the conclusion about the need for the existence of certain groups of the population that would carry out labor activities so that the rest of the citizens of the country could spend their lives in luxury and bliss. In particular, such groups were supposed to be young people, as well as criminals. After many centuries, these ideas were embodied in many countries of the communist camp, when a fairly significant part of the population was defined as criminal elements who had to atone for their impure thoughts by hard work for the good of society.

The social utopia that a criminal, no matter how serious a crime he may have committed, remains the same person as respectable citizens, in many economically developed countries has led to the fact that the level of comfort in places of detention exceeds the conditions in which they live good citizens in many more other countries.

Utopian forecasts also allow the use of the so-called retreat strategy used in the study of unsolvable problems in a given specific period of time. Thus, it becomes possible to search for new solutions, to conduct experiments that will make it possible to approach the solution of such problems. In addition, utopian forecasts act as a kind of tests of possibilities that allow us to assess the degree of necessary progress in one direction or another. It is impossible to take any bold action without first evaluating its possibility in utopian forecasts. your body from the earth. Therefore, the foresight and practical implementation of global changes are possible only in conditions of connection in the forecasts of the fantastic and the real.

* There. pp.67-69.

Forecasting reduces the negative effects of the uncertainty factor in modern economic systems, where "changes open up new opportunities, but also create a threat, namely, the likelihood of making mistakes. The main question is how to act quickly enough and not do stupid things." * In particular , in the context of various reforms, including economic ones, which are caused by the impossibility of the effective functioning of an organization according to certain rules, there is a significant increase in the uncertainty factor, leading to the need to create conditions for the creation of new organizational structures by forecasting.

* There. P.108.

In terms of taking into account the uncertainty factor in the forecasting process, it should be noted that although forecasting is designed and able to reduce uncertainty, it itself, within certain organizations, is able to create, generate and increase uncertainty in cases where the interests of only a narrow group of people are pursued and taken into account and there is no striving for consensus.

From the point of view of attitudes towards uncertainty and innovation, the following main groups of subjects can be distinguished, which can be either individuals, teams, organizations, or entire regions or countries: conservatives, careerists, innovators. The position of the conservatives is to maintain the status quo, they are suspicious of changes and reforms. But if the changes are capable of leading to an improvement in the position of the conservatives, they agree to their implementation. They provide destructive resistance to change when, as a result of the changes, their influence in organizational systems will decrease. As a rule, conservatives have a very good idea of ​​what not to do, rather than what should be done, and as a result prefer defensive actions that are more in line with their organizational state.

Careerists are ambitious and striving for success, very often at any cost, as they clearly understand that mistakes are not forgiven at any level, either within a separate team or in international relations. In pursuing the goal of achieving success, careerists, just like conservatives, are cautious about innovations, only this phobia of theirs is not as pronounced and distinct as in the first case. As a rule, conservatives join innovators at stages when the value of innovation has already been proven and the need for its implementation is supported by major groups within a particular organization. In the behavior of careerists, there is a desire for structured situations with predictable results that provide relative freedom of action, and are also supported by higher subjects. This determines the desire of careerists for changes that are based not on cardinal or deep, but purely external, cosmetic changes. Careerists are not capable of really new solutions to certain problems, but at the stage of implementation of innovations, when a certain decision has already been made, they can bring certain benefits in improving the efficiency of the functioning of an organization.

Many innovators are the creators of new ideas and solutions, have the ability not to experience significant problems when moving forward in the presence of uncertainties of various types and degrees, due to the fact that they have an idea of ​​what and how to do to solve certain problems due to they have certain theories about the directions of development of various organizations. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the fact that innovators very often take irreconcilable positions in relation to those approaches and directions that contradict their own.

Considering various economic systems in terms of the implementation of various necessary innovations in them, it should be borne in mind that for each system there is a certain threshold of changes, beyond which the latter turn from good into their own opposite - evil, as a result of which changes can bring irreversible consequences that have destructive consequences. character. Under these conditions, forecasting is just such a tool that allows you to determine for each specific system the optimal level of changes that bring an increase in the efficiency of functioning. In the aspect of improving the efficiency of the functioning of economic systems, forecasting makes it possible to assess the possibility and directions of occurrence of various kinds of errors in the process of making changes. Forecasting makes it possible to evaluate possible directions of resistance to ongoing transformations in systems, limitations of the system's adaptive capabilities, as well as the most optimal directions for ongoing transformations. There are three main types of errors that organizations encounter when implementing change: marginal errors, errors of inconsistency, and social errors.*

* There. P.120.

Marginal errors include those types that are caused by certain violations of established rules and tolerances. For example, different countries and industries have different tolerances for product or service quality requirements. In this regard, we can note the example of Japan, where many enterprises of electrical products have stricter tolerances for the quality of components than in the UK for military products. In Russia, for example, when conducting sociological surveys in preparation for the 1996 presidential elections, it was specifically noted that there were sociological and statistical errors, the so-called error factor, which was attributed to failures regarding the reliability of forecasts.

The level of marginal errors depends on the degree of certainty of the problem being solved; the higher it is, the less opportunities for errors of this kind to appear. At the same time, marginal errors themselves contribute to an increase in the degree of uncertainty of the situation in which they are committed. Therefore, one of the tasks of forecasting should be the development of as clear as possible procedures for the implementation of predicted actions, mechanisms and results in order to reduce the prerequisites for the occurrence of marginal errors.

The occurrence of inconsistency errors is due to such an objective phenomenon as a mismatch between supply and demand under the influence of various factors. This type of error in many cases is one of the main reasons for the creation and development of uncertainty in which an organization is forced to operate. In cases where there is a low rate of change in the environment surrounding the organization, inconsistency errors can very often become prerequisites for making the necessary changes. In modern economic systems, the task of preventing errors of this kind increases enormously. At the same time, in the forecasting process, it is necessary to take into account the fact that inconsistency errors can, in the case of inefficient forecasting, cause such changes that themselves become serious errors and lead to the appearance and action of a large number of marginal errors.

Social or external errors are associated with problems of interaction and the consequences of such interaction between subjects that are not directly related to each other, but only indirectly or have no relationship at all. Such errors, as a rule, are associated with such objects that are in public ownership in all forms of manifestation of the latter. Considering the various mistakes made in modern economic systems, it should also be noted that there is such a contradictory situation when, with an increase in the degree of environmental change, an organization immersed in it seeks to avoid social mistakes, and at the same time, as it adapts to the surrounding reality, everything in the organization prerequisites for the emergence of marginal and social errors will arise more often. The most optimal solution to this problem is possible under conditions of effective forecasting, in the process of which it becomes possible to assess the sources of errors, their level and possible negative consequences.

In the aspect of the development and functioning of modern economic systems, it can be noted that internal instability is immanent in them. This situation is typical for all levels: individuals, enterprises, regions, countries and the entire world economy. In the regional aspect of the problem under consideration, it should be noted that the authorities at the regional level can and should contribute to the achievement of stability in the functioning of the regional economy. The fact is that even in economically highly developed countries there are regions that, for one reason or another, are characterized by the weakness of regional economic systems. One of the ways to increase the level of economic development of a region is forecasting, planning the development of the region's innovative potential.

Economic policy, like any other, is carried out in order to achieve certain goals that cover both individual problems and industries or their complex. Therefore, regional governments should currently pursue a certain economic policy in the field of all-round development of the innovative potential of all economic entities and facilities located and operating in the region. Economic policy measures are implemented in economic and political decisions that are used as tools to change the situation in terms of achieving the intended goals. We can distinguish the following main tools that are used at the regional level (as well as at the country level, only with varying degrees of detail, volumes and scales): information and consulting, financial, administrative. The most widespread at present are financial public instruments, such as subsidies, including preferential taxation, public spending on infrastructure, etc. At the same time, in the process of applying financial instruments, a policy of stimulating innovation processes in the regional economy should be implemented, which, in turn, has an indirect regulatory impact on the decision-making processes of economic entities and their choice of the most optimal development option, not only from their standpoint, but also from the point of view of view of the public interest. In this regard, it should be borne in mind that extensive financial assistance directed to the real sector can have a rather significant impact both on the flow of innovation processes and on the efficiency of the entire regional economic system.

Public funds should be the initiator of private innovation in certain industries or enterprises. At the same time, private innovation activity serves in this aspect as an intermediate goal (instrument) in terms of achieving the global strategic goal - increasing the national income per capita in the region, leading to the achievement of the strategic goal - increasing the economic well-being of every citizen. In the process of determining the directions of financing, local authorities should take an active part in order to increase the innovative potential of their territories, as well as enterprises in order to provide the scientific base for their own applied research. At the same time, funds allocated for innovative research should be targeted and earmarked for specific research in certain areas of interest to the funding source. Currently, the importance of state support for exploratory R&D is growing, which includes the basic technologies of newly emerging technological modes and which are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty in the practical implementation of the results obtained.

An important structural component that ensures the effective implementation of innovative activities is the presence of a certain financial infrastructure, which includes the following main components: a system of state financing of innovative activities, a system of non-state innovative financing, innovative funds and innovative banks; availability of a system for providing certain state guarantees for activities carried out by non-state organizations; investment insurance system for innovation activities, etc.

In modern conditions, the government should make wider use of information and advisory activities aimed at identifying and promoting promising areas of economic development in an innovative aspect. At the same time, it is necessary to strive for the interconnection of goals and means of achieving them in the form of economic and political mechanisms. To this end, the government should itself implement and also stimulate the process of transferring knowledge for open public use in cases where the social costs of private appropriation are quite significant, and the consequences for reducing incentives for entrepreneurial innovation are small; when the benefits of open public access are greatest and legal protection is more difficult and costly.

It should also be noted that the effectiveness of the ongoing innovative economic policy largely depends on the primary tools used, mechanisms for achieving intermediate and final goals. In this regard, it is necessary to apply more widely the mechanism of analysis and monitoring of the probable and real consequences of the economic decisions taken, without which it is impossible to optimally coordinate the application of various instruments of innovative economic policy.

One of the main structural components of the general economic policy should be the policy of promoting innovation, the main goal of which is to identify and stimulate the innovation process in the activities of all economic entities located in the region. The following main advantages of innovation activity can be distinguished: it allows economic entities to function effectively in today's competitive environment; guarantees the constant adaptation of the production of goods and services, both in volume and in structure, to the constantly changing in size and structure demand of the population and enterprises; encourages the effective application of the achievements of scientific and technological progress; allows you to individualize the offer in accordance with individualized demand and, on the basis of this, increase the efficiency of using limited factors of production, etc. An important factor in accelerating scientific and technological progress is the activity of innovative enterprises. As world experience shows, a significant mass of new technical solutions, technologies, goods and services are created within the framework of such enterprises that implement scientific ideas and developments.

In terms of encouraging innovation, regional governments should encourage and stimulate the creation and functioning of economic entities that conduct their economic activities based on innovative principles, including innovative monopolies. In this regard, it can be noted that innovative enterprises have much greater opportunities in terms of competition both in the domestic and foreign markets. At the same time, the government should strive to limit the transformation of innovative monopolies into traditional ones. The assumption of instability in the development of economic systems and the need for constant changes in the short term does not deny, but, on the contrary, implies the achievement of stability in the long term in terms of ensuring the long-term effective functioning of the enterprise, region, industry and the whole country. In turn, the main structural component of the overall economic policy of the government is the policy of maintaining stability, implemented through a set of measures and tools aimed at promoting innovation by all economic entities.

In terms of the problem of innovative development of regions, it is necessary to consider the problem of the so-called "shuttle traders", i.e. citizens who, on an individual, initiative basis, are engaged in the transportation of goods from other countries. You can treat these people differently, but it should be borne in mind that many of them are carriers of a huge innovative potential, which is very often not used, unfortunately, in an optimal way. Many large trading firms were founded by former shuttle traders, as one of the population groups with increased economic activity. "Chelnokov" can be represented as a kind of economic intelligence, who have a good grasp of information about the real demand of the population of the region and about the supply in foreign markets. In this regard, it is necessary to envisage a set of measures aimed at stimulating the study and development of new foreign markets by "shuttle traders", providing them with assistance in obtaining loans, finance, tax benefits, benefits when creating their own enterprises, organizing certain training and consulting courses for them, etc. d. Thus, one should see in them not only "cash cows" for the budget, but also economically active citizens who can bring very great economic benefits for the same budget in the long run.

Of great importance in modern conditions is technical progress, understood not only as the application of new production methods (innovations in production processes), but also as the creation and significant improvement of benefits (innovations in goods and services). Under these conditions, the main sources of economic growth are structural changes arising under the influence of the production of improved or completely new goods and services. At the same time, an active structural policy is currently unthinkable without active state participation in this process, which can and should contribute to achieving the optimal functioning of regional economic systems from a public point of view. Under these conditions, structural policy should help to ensure socially acceptable adaptation to the rapidly changing conditions of such enterprises and industries that are on the verge of a stage of stagnation and decline, especially when these issues are transformed into employment problems. At the same time, a decisive restructuring of such enterprises and industries in the regional aspect is required, which are not able to establish themselves in modern economic systems and have no prospects in terms of the development of the world economy. Therefore, the state should pursue an active structural policy, the main purpose of which should be the identification and stimulation of structural changes generated by innovative processes. Structural policy should focus on encouraging scientific and technological progress and consist in direct and indirect support for innovation processes, in particular, stimulation of research and development work, as well as state regulation within the framework of technology policy.

At the regional level, it is required to create specialized organizations involved in subsidizing research and development and the introduction of promising innovations, providing concessional lending for risky innovations, non-profit scientific and technical organizations. One of the forms of identifying and stimulating the innovative potential of the region can be certain centers of interaction between science and business structures, where targeted research and development work (R&D) should be carried out on orders from interested organizations. The main objectives of such centers should be to obtain and disseminate innovative ideas, promising developments, new scientific and technical knowledge, activities should be carried out on a non-profit basis, and the income received should be directed to the implementation of innovative research and development, training and retraining of relevant personnel, the implementation of appropriate technical and technological equipment. . Forecasting, monitoring and evaluating the activities of organizations of this kind should be carried out by a specialized council consisting of representatives of state authorities, the scientific community and business structures.

Universities, along with other organizations, such as state and public, private funds for innovative research and development, should form the core of the organizational infrastructure designed to ensure the optimal integration of production, science and education in order to realize the innovative potential of the region. Along with universities, the organizational and technical infrastructure of the region's innovation activities should include organizations providing information services and data banks; engineering and implementation companies that provide services for the development of new technologies and equipment adjustment; consulting organizations; technology transfer centers; public organizations that coordinate the activities of various specialists, as well as the transfer of scientific and technical knowledge, etc. In addition, the state should carry out the development and implementation of a set of measures aimed at including scientific centers in the world information structures, for which they and universities should be equipped with modern telecommunications facilities and data banks created on their basis. In the process of developing the innovative potential of regional economic systems associated with scientific and technological progress, regional authorities should perform the following main functions: financing fundamental R&D, legal protection of intellectual property, dissemination of scientific and technical information, ensuring the reduction of uncertainty in the future trajectory of scientific and technical progress, creating conditions for increasing the competitive advantages of the subjects of regional economic systems in the field of high technologies, achieving public consent in the selection and implementation of priority areas of technical and economic development. At the same time, the division of the functions of choosing, assessing and implementing priority areas of economic development between various subjects of political and economic power in the region is of great importance. At the same time, the choice of priority directions of development should be carried out on the basis of trends and patterns of development of the world economic system, national and regional interests, which requires a certain protection of organizations carrying out this process from the influence of randomly changing political conditions and incompetent interference.*

* Glazyev S.Yu. Theory of long-term technical and economic development. Moscow: VlaDar, 1993.

Within the framework of the state management system at the regional level, there should be organizations involved in the assessment of promising areas of economic, scientific, technical and innovative activities, which should perform the functions of non-departmental expertise and perform the functions of coordinating the opinions of highly qualified experts involved from various organizations for collective decision-making on the assessment and structuring the proposed priority areas for development. This structure should also organize special organizations such as engineering research associations, consortiums, laboratories, etc.; research consortia-corporations coordinating the activities and capabilities of enterprises and research organizations, etc.

Regional authorities should also strive for horizontal integration of all subjects and objects of regional economic systems in terms of solving the problems of innovative development of the region. At the same time, the methods of state regulation of this process should not replace purely market relations, but, on the contrary, relying on them, promote their effective application in economic practice. In this regard, it can be noted that state subsidies, preferential loans, restrictions on the activities of certain enterprises, as well as other methods of state influence should be built in accordance with the expected changes in the economic situation and innovative development of all economic entities and objects.

In the regions, it is necessary to create a certain mechanism for the formation of systematic favorable conditions for the rapid development of new enterprises and industries that can become the main carriers of sources of economic growth in the long term. At the same time, at the initial stages, it is necessary to protect such enterprises from foreign competition, provide preferential financial resources and tax incentives with the gradual organization of certain conditions to prepare such enterprises for entering foreign markets, many of which have fierce competition. In addition, one of the tasks of state structures should be the implementation of centralized measures to stimulate the curtailment of unpromising obsolete and obsolete industries by cartelizing interested enterprises and bringing them state targets to reduce production volumes with the corresponding creation of an encouraging economic mechanism for this.

At the regional level, it is necessary to strive for the active participation of state organizations in the processes of disseminating scientific and technical information, observing and maintaining an approximately equal balance of power between competing enterprises in key industries by assisting in the acquisition of licenses, the development of "know-how", the introduction of scientific and technical achievements that contribute to increasing the efficiency of production both within the framework of an individual economic entity and the entire economy as a whole.

In terms of state influence on the innovative development of industry, one should proceed from the targeted and selective encouragement of specific industries, enterprises and organizations by identifying and creating optimal conditions for the implementation of integration processes within the industry and the region, coordinating the interests of all subjects and objects of regional economic systems with the interests of long-term innovative development of the region. An important role in this regard is played by the process of rationalization of decision-making processes in the field of choosing the main directions of economic development. Strategic decisions made by regional authorities must necessarily take into account the opinion of business circles, scientists and specialists, which ultimately leads to the formation of a collective opinion.

In accordance with the requirements of modern economic systems in the innovative aspect, the system of state management of the economy should be transformed. At the same time, one of the main goals of the government should be the identification of promising problems of economic and social development on a multivariate basis. In terms of the implementation of this goal, forecasts and programs aimed at the implementation of the selected priorities should be developed. In accordance with this, it seems quite logical to concentrate the functions of realizing the implementation of the region's innovative potential in a special structural unit, for example, the Ministry of Innovation Processes. At the same time, the government should aim to increase the innovative potential in the priority sectors of the economic system and ensure the growth of competitive advantages.

When compiling a budget, the company focuses mainly on its expenditure side. At the same time, the least predictable revenue part remains insufficiently detailed and substantiated. This article is devoted to income forecasting, compilation and analysis of company development scenarios, as well as a description of the main errors that occur in the forecasting process.

The main difference between a forecast and a plan is that are predicted those indicators that the company cannot fully control - sales volume, risks or actions of competitors. be planned maybe something that is completely in the sphere of influence, for example, expenses. The main purpose of forecasting is to be able to evaluate the company's performance as "successful" or "unsuccessful" not by those indicators (profits, markets, dividends) that are, but by those that could potentially be.

The choice of methods used in forecasting depends only on the capabilities of the analyst - it can be both complex mathematical models and intuitive conclusions. The main thing is that the final result obtained as a result of using these methods describes the real situation as accurately as possible. Within the framework of the article, we will use a standard approach to forecasting based on the assessment of indicators that directly affect the result of the forecast.

Revenue Forecasting

In order to predict the amount of revenue, it is necessary to determine the future values ​​of the company's sales in physical and monetary terms, and also to understand how they can change depending on the conditions of the external and internal environment.

Decomposition of factors

The company's sales volume is not homogeneous, as it depends on a large number of factors (demographic conditions in a given region, the state of industries in which substitute goods are produced, etc.), the values ​​of which may change significantly in the future. Therefore, if we forecast sales based only on historical data, our forecast is likely to be inaccurate. To make a decision about future sales volume, it is necessary to determine all the factors that can affect the forecast (relevant factors) (see Figure 1). If the company is not a monopolist, these factors should include the market share that the company expects to occupy in the period under consideration.

Personal experience

Sergey Pustovalov, financial director of Talosto company (St. Petersburg)

The Talosto development forecast is compiled for a period of five years, broken down by years and business areas, and is calculated in the pessimistic, optimistic and most realistic scenarios. As the main factors influencing the company's financial forecast, the following are used: gross product by sales markets, investments in advertising, actions of competitors, growth of market segments. The target indicator for us is the market share of the company - it must grow faster than the market, or at least along with it. Thus, under a pessimistic scenario, the growth of target market segments is considered minimal and amounts to 15% per year.

To determine the dynamics of the external environment, we use not only statistical data, but also forecasts from the State Statistics Committee, data from news agencies, forecasts from the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, and industry monitoring materials prepared for us by marketing agencies, as well as investment fund reviews. The final value of revenue is obtained by weighing all these indicators.

Forecasting factors

Now we need to build forecasts of relevant factors. In the presence of statistical information about the past dynamics, it is most convenient to use the dependence of the factor on time (trend) as the starting values ​​for the forecast. It can be determined using Excel by plotting a graph, adding a trend line, and deriving a dependency equation (see Chart 1).

Then it is necessary to determine how the resulting trend can change under the influence of environmental conditions. To reflect such trends, adjustment factors are usually used, obtained through the analysis of statistical data and information about the expected changes. The values ​​of such coefficients must be economically justified (see Example). The forecast value of the factor is corrected by multiplying the forecasts obtained using the trend by the correction factors.

The change in the company's market share is calculated in a similar way. At the same time, if the company is not in the stage of aggressive growth, the most probable growth rate of the company is equal to the growth rate of the market as a whole. This forecast is then adjusted to take into account factors such as management processes, advertising activity of the company and competitors, changes in the assortment or technology, etc. If the company develops aggressively, then growth equal to the growth of the market is a pessimistic forecast.

The result of this stage should be the boundary (pessimistic and optimistic) values ​​of the forecasts of all factors affecting the sales volume. Most companies also evaluate the third, “most likely” option, which always lies between the two boundary values.

Reference

The easiest way to express the dependence of the factor on time using a linear relationship:

where Y is the predictive factor,

t is the time.

A linear equation does not always accurately reflect economic trends. Thus, as the market becomes saturated, the growth rate of sales decreases. To take this into account, a more complex dependence is used (for example, a logarithmic one, as is done in our example). You can build it by simply sorting through the equations in Excel that describe the trend. At the same time, the curve of calculated values ​​will also change. As a result, you need to choose a curve that will match as much as possible with the line connecting the actual values ​​of the indicator. For the oil market, for example, such dependence will be cyclical, and for its correct forecast it will be necessary to determine the period of the cycle.

Revenue Forecasting

Revenue forecasts for each year are obtained by weighting (usually by simply multiplying or dividing, as in our example) the forecast values ​​of the relevant factors for each of the development options.

Example

Company revenue forecasting

LLC "Romashka" is a rapidly growing company specializing in the wholesale trade of finishing materials and economy class sanitary ware. It is necessary to determine the future volume of sales up to 2006.

Having determined the list of relevant factors, it is necessary to build predictive values ​​for each of them. Consider building a forecast for one of the main facts - the volume of housing construction.

Graph 1. Forecasting the volume of housing construction

In recent years, the market has seen an intensive growth in construction volumes and prices for apartments. Half of the analysts believe that the market is "overheated", and in 2005-2006 people who bought apartments for investment purposes will start selling them (a pessimistic forecast). It is known that such investors make up 20% of the total number of apartment buyers, so the construction volume will drop by 40% for a short time (since investors will sell their 20% of apartments), and then grow by 20%. Accordingly, the calculated values ​​of the volume of housing construction in 2005-2006 must be corrected by multiplying first by 0.6 and then by 0.8. At the same time, the second half of analysts believe that demand, and, accordingly, the volume of construction will grow by 15% per year (optimistic forecast), and with the development of mortgage lending, growth rates will increase over time. Based on the forecasts of banking specialists regarding the number of mortgage loans issued (for example, this figure for the next 3 years is 4.5 billion US dollars, which, at the current average price of 1,500 US dollars per sq.m., will be 3 million sq.m. ), and knowing the current volume of construction (for example, 50 million sq. m.), we can conclude that due to this factor, our forecast for 2005-2006 will grow by 6%. The correction factor for each year will be 1.03. Assume that other factors remain unchanged in the next two years. Then, if the optimistic option is implemented, the market growth as a whole will also be 21%, and if the pessimistic option is implemented, it will grow by 100 - (0.6 + 0.8) / 2 = -30%.

Now it is necessary to determine how the market share of the company will change. In order to maintain and increase market share in the forecast period, it is planned to replace half of the range of goods sold with sanitary ware that is “fashionable”. It is known that the growth rate of consumption of such sanitary ware is 20% per year, with a market growth rate of 5% per year, therefore, an increase in the company's market share due to a change in half of the assortment will be 7.5% ((20% - 5%) × 50% ) (optimistic). If the demand for “fashionable” sanitary ware in the future decreases to 10%, the growth in market share will be 2.5% ((10% - 5%) × 50%).

Let's combine the influence of external and internal factors in the table:

Thus, we got two boundary values ​​for the company's revenue - 30.08% and -28.25%.

Scenario of the future

After forecasting revenue, it is necessary to plan the company's expenses. The planning of expenses necessary to ensure the constructed sales forecast is carried out using the existing budget model 1. Similar to the income forecast, the cost plan is compiled in two versions - the best and the worst. At the same time, the “best” option is considered when the company allows itself to pay for everything that is planned, and the “worst” option is the austerity regime.

For more information about modeling the company's activities, see the article "Company valuation model: development and application", No. 12, 2003, p.10 - Note editions

Personal experience

Sergei Pustovalov

The main internal development constraint is the cash at the disposal of the company. Therefore, we believe that under the optimistic scenario, the company can grow not only due to credit resources, but also through the issuance of additional shares or an increase in the authorized capital. In a realistic scenario, we are guided by our own needs and loans - that is, "we grow as best we can." When implementing the pessimistic option, it is considered that it is difficult to raise capital.

Then, the company's forecast income and expenses are brought together, and four boundary development options are obtained (see Table 2).

For the convenience of analysis, for all such options, the main financial statements are built - BDDS, BDR and balance sheet. Each of the four options is mapped to the goals and strategy of the company. For example, it is possible that the best-case scenario in terms of income and expenses will lead to the accumulation of receivables and require additional lending. At the same time, a more cautious strategy—sales growth with cost savings—may help maintain financial independence, which is more important for a number of companies than increasing turnover.

The result of this stage should be the most probable scenario for the future of the company, consisting of a set of three forecast reports, as well as a set of measures implemented in case of positive or negative deviations from it. For the timely identification of these deviations, it is necessary to identify a set of benchmarks.

Personal experience

Denis Ivanov, General Director of Financial Reserve CJSC (Moscow)

Forecast of future income every six months is made by the heads of divisions that generate income. As a rule, the future result of their work is expressed by one value, but the error error (range of values) is determined. The planning and economic department calculates the master plan and indicates the boundary values ​​of possible deviations. If there is a possibility of an event that significantly affects the forecast value, then the planning and economic department determines the values ​​for the case of such a scenario.

These scenarios are processed in the planning and economic department, which adds a range of future exchange rates to the forecast data. Then, taking into account future expenses, a payment schedule is determined, after which the accounting department makes a forecast for net profit and develops tax planning activities.

Benchmark selection

The selection of indicators that will subsequently be used to analyze the fulfillment of the forecast begins even during the forecasting and planning of revenue and expenses - then the necessary market share, prices, physical sales volume, labor productivity, material consumption, etc. are determined. At a subsequent stage, these indicators are adjusted and supplemented with parameters that will affect the financial result - that is, the trade margin, receivables turnover, the share of transportation costs, profitability, etc. In the process of implementing the forecast, these parameters must be constantly monitored, since their steady change in the positive or negative direction from the planned values ​​will indicate the implementation of one of the forecast options 2. By receiving this data in a timely manner, the company will be able to adjust its actions in accordance with a previously developed forecast .

(For more information about the key performance indicators of the company, see the article “Managing the enterprise using the Balanced Scorecard system”, “Financial Director” No. 3, 2003, p. 12 - Note editions)

Personal experience

Oleg Frakin

For forecasting to be effective, forecast execution data must be used to make decisions based on the current situation, and not on the results of the past. At the same time, it is impossible to force departments to take into account expenses and income, for example, in Excel. This requires a specialized program that allows you to collect data, plan and analyze it, conduct plan-fact analysis until the end of the reporting period. Otherwise, there will be no efficiency, and any forecast will lose its meaning, since all the possibilities for its implementation will be lost.

In companies for which most of the costs are fixed (like ours, for example), there is another "brake" for operational management within the forecast. If the sales plan is not met, I cannot fire half the staff in order to reduce costs. You can only react with variable costs. Partially, this problem can be solved by converting fixed costs into variables - that is, using outsourcing, for example, in the IT service, but this cannot be done in all cases. As a result, the work scenarios for our company are quite obvious: if we earned 20% less than planned for the period, then the total amount in the BDR will change by a maximum of 15%, because I can save at most 5% of the pre-approved amount.

Sergei Pustovalov

One of the key indicators for us is the price of raw materials, but the possibilities for compensating for price increases, for example, for flour, are rather limited. So, each direction of our activity has a directorate, which manages the work of the direction and predicts how it will develop in the future. Reducing these directorates due to the current decline in profits is hardly worth it. Rather, we will try to reduce direct costs or increase the price of products.

Forecast errors

Forecasting errors are most often associated with incorrect determination of the input parameters of the predictive model.

Evaluation of one development option

This mistake is perhaps the most common. Marketing analysts of most companies (at least in Russia) do not consider it necessary to calculate options for the development of events. In the best case, planning takes place by groups of goods (range), regions or distribution channels, while for each direction of planning only one set of forecast parameters (price and volume) is calculated, which, as a rule, is underestimated "for safety". Subsequently, when assessing the sensitivity of the financial model to the input parameters, financiers can analyze changes in the company's key financial indicators in relation to these parameters. But if the values ​​of such indicators still remain within acceptable limits, the analysis ends. And if a pessimistic development scenario is realized, then the company will not be able to track the negative trend in time and take measures to correct it.

Personal experience

Oleg Frakin

We tried to build an annual budget taking into account possible scenarios, but practice has shown that this does not make much sense for our company. The external environment is changing too quickly, especially legislation and governing bodies. For example, recently the functions of regulating the alcohol industry were transferred to the Ministry of Industry and Energy, and then to the Ministry of Agriculture. If the situation remains the same, then we can predict an increase in income, as the Ministry of Agriculture and Industry will begin to build barriers to imports, the cost of imported alcohol will increase, and the share of our income in the cost will become less noticeable - therefore, it can be increased. Forecasting earnings and considering scenarios on an ongoing basis makes sense in industries with a stable environment (such as mining or retail).

Most often, when forecasting, the extrapolation method is used - that is, determining the relationship between model parameters based on past data and transferring these dependencies to the future. For example, if construction volumes grew by 15% annually, then it is assumed that this year the growth will be the same. However, such forecasting does not take into account current market trends. Therefore, extrapolation is suitable only as a tool for "preparing" forecast values, including it is used to calculate seasonal fluctuations in demand and prices.

Personal experience

Evgeny Dubinin, Deputy Financial Director of the construction company "LEK-Moscow"

It is wrong to use only mathematical methods in forecasting, even the most complex ones, since in this case the economic meaning of events is not taken into account. If the forecast of the dollar at the beginning of 1998 was made by a mathematician who does not understand anything in economics, he would have built a dependence that does not take into account the current situation with the country's domestic debt. The same forecast made taking this factor into account would give a completely different picture.

Underestimating or ignoring factors

This error manifests itself when trying to take into account future changes in the external and internal environment of the company. Relevant factors are often chosen in a simplistic manner and downplay both the individual and cumulative effects of such factors. For example, for real estate, not only personal income growth and lower mortgage interest rates will be relevant factors, but also demographic factors.

Incomplete accounting of proposed changes

The proposed changes should be adequately accounted for in both revenue and expenditure. If this is not done, then a situation may turn out when additional income will be planned without taking into account additional expenses. Most often, this concerns semi-fixed expenses: for advertising, communications, etc. There is also a reverse option, when the company plans to cut costs, believing that this will not affect income in any way.

The desire to wishful thinking

Many people, due to their psychological characteristics, do not want to face the truth, so business leaders often see threats to business, but do not want to consider them as such. Preferring an optimistic view of developments can lead to a decrease in the company's readiness to withstand negative trends - both in the internal and external environment of the enterprise.

Introduction
Chapter 1. Concepts and essence of financial forecasting
1.1. Concept and tasks of financial forecasting
1.2. System of financial forecasting methods
1.3. Problems of financial forecasting at the macro and micro levels
Chapter 2. Prospects for financial forecasting in the Russian Federation
2.1. Prospects for socio-economic development
2.2. The main priorities of socio-economic development
Conclusion
List of sources used

Introduction

In our time, every day society is faced with a huge variety of financial relations, including quite diverse and daily financial transactions. It is clear that for the growth and stability of the country's economy, for the successful functioning and development of the entire market economy, it is necessary to have a reliable financial system, which is a set of interrelated areas and links of financial relations.

Thus, the creation of a reliable financial system is one of the important tasks of the state. It is the basis for the entire existing economy and undoubtedly plays a very important role. Currently, in the economic literature there are many different controversial statements regarding the composition and structure of the financial system. But different terms, views and controversial opinions on some individual issues do not cancel the general idea of ​​the main subjects of the financial system. There are long-established, traditional ideas about the composition of the financial system and terminology, which is defined by the regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation and is traditionally used in our country.

In addition to the main components of the financial system, each developed country has its own characteristics that have allowed it to reach certain heights at the present stage. Therefore, the study of the financial system of developed countries is of interest to Russian specialists in the field of economics and finance. Consideration of the features of the financial systems of foreign countries is expedient, from the point of view of the possible use of some of its moments in the organization of the financial system of Russia.

Financial forecasting is one of the most important stages of financial planning. The purpose of financial forecasting is to link material and financial and cost proportions in the economy in the future; assessment of the expected amount of financial resources; identification of options for financial support; identification of possible deviations from the accepted designs.

Chapter 1. Concepts and essence of financial forecasting

1.1. Concept and tasks of financial forecasting

Financial forecasting is a study of specific prospects for the development of finances of business entities and government entities in the future, a scientifically based assumption about the volumes and directions of use of financial resources in the future.

Financial forecasting reveals the expected future picture of the state of financial resources and the need for them, possible options for the implementation of financial activities and is a prerequisite for financial planning. The main goal of financial forecasting, carried out for the scientific substantiation of indicators of financial plans and contributing to the development of a concept for the development of finance for the forecast period, can be attributed to the assessment of the estimated volume of financial resources and the determination of preferred options for financial support for the activities of business entities, government authorities and local governments.

The tasks of financial forecasting are:

- linking the material and financial and cost proportions at the macro and micro levels for the future;

– determination of the sources of formation and volume of financial resources of business entities and government entities for the forecast period;

- substantiation of directions for the use of financial resources by business entities and government entities for the forecast period based on an analysis of trends and dynamics of financial indicators, taking into account the internal and external factors affecting them;

– determination and evaluation of the financial consequences of decisions taken by state authorities and local self-government, business entities.

Financial forecasting is carried out by developing various options for the development of an organization, a separate administrative-territorial unit, the country as a whole, their analysis and justification, assessing the possible degree of achievement of certain goals, depending on the nature of the actions of planning subjects. This is achieved by two different methodological approaches:

1) within the framework of the first approach, forecasting is carried out from the present to the future on the basis of established cause-and-effect relationships;

2) in the second approach, forecasting consists in determining the future goal and guidelines for moving from the future to the present, when a chain of possible events and measures that need to be taken to achieve a given result in the future, based on the current level of development of an organization, an administrative-territorial unit, are developed and studied and the country as a whole.

Mathematical modeling makes it possible to take into account many interrelated factors influencing financial forecast indicators, to choose from several options for the forecast project the most appropriate for the accepted concept of production, socio-economic development and the goals of financial policy.

Econometric forecasting is based on the principles of economic theory and statistics: the calculation of forecast indicators is carried out on the basis of statistical estimation coefficients with one or more economic variables acting as forecasting factors; allows you to consider the simultaneous change in several variables that affect the performance of the financial forecast. Econometric models describe, with a certain degree of probability, the dynamics of indicators depending on changes in factors that affect financial processes. When constructing econometric models, the mathematical apparatus of regression analysis is used, which gives quantitative estimates of the average relationships and proportions that have developed in the economy during the base period. To obtain the most reliable results, economic and mathematical methods are supplemented by expert assessments.

The method of expert assessments involves the generalization and mathematical processing of assessments of specialist experts on a particular issue. The effectiveness of this method depends on the professionalism and competence of the experts. Such forecasting can be quite accurate, however, expert assessments are subjective, depend on the "feelings" of the expert and are not always amenable to rational explanation.

The trend method, which assumes the dependence of some groups of income and expenses only on the time factor, proceeds from constant rates of change (trend of constant growth rates) or constant absolute changes (linear time trend). The disadvantage of this method is ignoring economic, demographic and other factors.

Scenarios are not always developed on the basis of scientificity and objectivity, they always feel the influence of political preferences, preferences of individual officials, investors, owners, but this allows us to assess the consequences of the implementation of certain political promises.

Stochastic methods assume the probabilistic nature of both the forecast and the relationship between the data used and the forecast financial indicators. The probability of calculating an accurate financial forecast is determined by the amount of empirical data used in forecasting.

Thus, financial forecasting methods differ in terms of costs and volumes of the resulting information provided: the more complex the forecasting method, the greater the costs associated with it and the volume of information obtained with its help.

The result of financial forecasting is the compilation of a financial forecast, which is a system of scientifically based assumptions about possible directions for future development and the state of the financial system, its individual areas and subjects of financial relations. Forecasts make it possible to consider various options for the development of finance, for example, under favorable, average and worst-case scenarios for the development of the economy, business entity, market conditions, etc. Financial forecasts can be short-term (up to 3 years), medium-term (for 5-7 years) and long-term (up to 10-15 years).

At the national and territorial levels, financial forecasts are compiled in the form of a long-term financial plan and a balance of financial resources (country, region, municipality) (Articles 172, 174, 175 of the RF BC).

1.2. System of financial forecasting methods

In world practice, more than two hundred forecasting methods are used, in domestic science - no more than twenty. The introduction indicated that the methods of financial forecasting, which are widely used in developed foreign countries, will be considered.

Thus, depending on the type of model used, all forecasting methods can be divided into three large groups:

Methods of expert assessments, which provide for a multi-stage survey of experts according to special schemes and processing of the results obtained using tools of economic statistics. The application of these methods in practice, usually, is to use the experience and knowledge of trade, financial, production managers of an enterprise or government agency. The disadvantage is the reduction or complete absence of personal responsibility for the forecast made. Expert assessments are used not only to predict the values ​​of indicators, but also in analytical work, for example, to develop weight coefficients, threshold values ​​for controlled indicators, etc.

Stochastic methods, which assume the probabilistic nature of both the forecast and the relationship between the studied indicators. The probability of obtaining an accurate forecast increases with the increase in the number of empirical data. These methods occupy a leading place in terms of formalized forecasting and vary significantly in the complexity of the algorithms used. The simplest example is the study of sales trends by analyzing the growth rates of sales indicators. Forecasting results obtained by statistical methods are subject to random fluctuations in data, which can sometimes lead to serious miscalculations.

Stochastic methods can be divided into three typical groups, which will be named below. The choice for forecasting the method of one or another group depends on many factors, including the available initial data.

The first situation - the presence of a time series - is most often encountered in practice: a financial manager or analyst has at his disposal data on the dynamics of an indicator, on the basis of which it is required to build an acceptable forecast. In other words, we are talking about highlighting a trend. This can be done in various ways, the main of which are simple dynamic analysis and analysis using autoregressive dependencies.

The second situation - the presence of a spatial population - takes place if, for some reason, statistical data on the indicator are not available or there is reason to believe that its value is determined by the influence of some factors. In this case, multivariate regression analysis can be used, which is an extension of a simple dynamic analysis to a multivariate case.

The third situation - the presence of a spatio-temporal set - takes place when: a) the time series are insufficient in length to build statistically significant forecasts; b) the analyst intends to take into account in the forecast the influence of factors that differ in economic nature and their dynamics. The initial data are matrices of indicators, each of which represents the values ​​of the same indicators for different periods or for different consecutive dates.

Deterministic methods that assume the presence of functional or rigidly determined relationships, when each value of the factor attribute corresponds to a well-defined non-random value of the effective attribute. As an example, we can cite the dependencies implemented in the framework of the well-known DuPont factor analysis model. Using this model and substituting into it the forecast values ​​of various factors, such as sales proceeds, asset turnover, the degree of financial dependence, and others, it is possible to calculate the forecast value of one of the main performance indicators - the return on equity ratio.

Another very illustrative example is the income statement form, which is a tabular implementation of a rigidly determined factor model that connects the effective attribute (profit) with factors (sales income, cost level, tax rate level, etc.). And at the level of state financial forecasting, the factor model is the relationship between the volume of state revenues and the tax base or interest rates.

Here it is impossible not to mention another group of methods for financial forecasting at the micro level, based on the construction of dynamic simulation models of the enterprise. Such models include data on planned purchases of materials and components, production and sales volumes, cost structure, investment activity of the enterprise, tax environment, etc. The processing of this information within the framework of a single financial model makes it possible to assess the forecast financial condition of the company with a very high degree of accuracy. In reality, such models can only be built using personal computers, which make it possible to quickly perform a huge amount of necessary calculations.

1.3. Problems of financial forecasting at the macro and micro levels

As such, there was no system of financial forecasting at the macro level in the Russian Federation. This is objectively explained by the following factors: statistical concepts were not adapted to the changes associated with the transition from a planned system to a market economy, a small database of macroeconomic empirical parameters, a lack of qualified specialists, and a lack of government funding for the creation of an institution for financial forecasting. These and, perhaps, many other factors prevented the creation of a state institution for forecasting. Therefore, the initiative to create an institute for forecasting had to come from outside, which eventually happened.

The initiator of the creation of the institute of social and economic forecasting was the program of the European Union - TACIS "Long-term scientific forecast of the economic and social development of the Russian Federation." This project started on April 8, 1998 and was completed on August 12, 2000.

Within the framework of this TACIS project on the "Long-term scientific forecast of the economic and social development of the Russian Federation", the Ministry of Finance and the Center for Economic and Social Reforms formed a Policy Assessment and Planning Group (PPP). The PSU group is called upon to deal with long-term issues of the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic and develop foresights regarding the development of the economy and society. In accordance with the Terms of Reference, the PSU team received an analytical framework to assist in scenario building and policy analysis, or in other words, a system designed for long-term forecasting.

The forecasting system designed for the RF cannot fully take into account all the determinants postulated with the help of theories. Data availability issues need to be taken into account. A working model cannot be too complex.

In any economy, there are strong links between productivity, income levels, and the level and composition of demand, which change through fiscal and economic policies.

Thus, the DESP system should cover both the supply side and the demand side. Particular attention should be paid to modeling investment in business and infrastructure (transport and communication and energy networks, educational and training institutions). The main determinant of investment opportunities is the legal and regulatory framework of the economy.

There are limitations in creating a model. The RF database still has gaps (eg capital stock). Due to the fact that the statistical concepts were adapted to the changes associated with the transition from a centrally controlled economy to a market system only after 1993, at the present time the length of the time lags is a maximum of six years. These limitations indicate that this model cannot be a classical econometric model. To predict horizons up to 20 years, model parameter estimates should be based at least on empirical data for 50–100 years. Therefore, there is a problem of inaccurate forecasts.

In this regard, the parameters of the DESP system can only be based on the "experience" of other countries. The parameter values ​​were brought into line with the RF structures and relations.

At the micro level, the main problem can be the inaccuracy of forecasts, with all the ensuing consequences, which can take very threatening forms for the enterprise, due to the waste of time and it on catching up on lost moments, while competing enterprises are progressing at a new level. It should be taken into account that here the accuracy of forecasts is influenced by the human factor, since the competence of financial managers includes the preparation of the most probable financial forecasts and plans. Therefore, the degree of accuracy in making forecasts depends on the qualifications of the financial manager, the choice of the method of financial forecasting and the implementation of strict financial control.

Chapter 2. Prospects for financial forecasting in the Russian Federation

2.1. Prospects for socio-economic forecasting in the Russian Federation

The forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019 (hereinafter referred to as the forecast) was developed on the basis of the scenario conditions and main parameters of the forecast approved by the Government of the Russian Federation and proceeds from the goals and priorities defined in the strategic planning documents.

The forecast was developed as part of three main options - basic, “basic +” and target. The base case considers the development of the Russian economy in the context of maintaining conservative trends in changes in external factors, taking into account the possible deterioration of external economic and other conditions, and is characterized by maintaining a restrained budget policy. The option reflects a conservative development scenario, has the status of a conservative forecast option and does not imply a fundamental change in the economic growth model.

The base case was developed based on a fairly low price trajectory for Urals oil: at $41 per barrel in 2016 and stabilization at $40 per barrel throughout the forecast period. This assessment of the level of oil prices is conservative, as it is significantly lower than the current consensus forecast for oil prices. A significant increase in oil exports is expected - by almost 21 million tons by 2019 compared to 2016, while increasing the share of non-oil exports in total exports to 34.8% in 2015 prices.

With limited financial capacity and a slow economic recovery, key social parameters will

be characterized by restrained dynamics, while providing for the obligatory fulfillment of the minimum social obligations of the state.

Under these conditions, retail trade turnover will also recover at a moderate pace – up to 1.8% in 2019. In the context of maintaining a moderately tight monetary policy, inflation will decrease to 5.8% in 2016 (on an annualized basis), and by the end of 2017 it will reach 4.0% and will remain at this level until the end of the forecast period.

Investment activity is expected to stabilize by mid-2017. Investment growth will resume in 2018. The average annual investment growth in 2018-2019 will be 1.3% and will be determined by the possibility of increasing private investment against the backdrop of a reduction in public investment spending.

Net capital outflow will increase from $18 billion in 2016 to $25 billion by the end of the forecast period.

Approaches to budget policy are generally conservative and do not differ in forecast options. The federal budget, according to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, will be in deficit throughout the entire period of 2016-2019 in all forecast options. In order to finance the deficit, it will be necessary to use budgetary funds, attract internal and external borrowings, and privatize state property.

In 2016, the fall in GDP will slow down to 0.6%, and by the end of the year the economy is expected to move from stagnation to recovery of economic growth. In 2017, the GDP growth rate will move into the positive area and amount to 0.6%, in 2018 the GDP growth rate will increase to 1.7%, in 2019 - up to 2.1 percent.

The “base+” option considers the development of the Russian economy in a more favorable external economic environment and is based on a moderate growth trajectory for Urals oil to $48/bbl in 2017, $52/bbl in 2018 and $55/bbl in 2019.

In the social sphere, this version of the forecast provides for an increase in the standard of living of the population based on a moderate increase in the social obligations of the state and business. Consumer demand will recover as income growth accelerates, as well as through the expansion of consumer lending. In 2019, the growth of retail trade turnover will increase to 3.5%, the volume of paid services to the population - up to 2.8%.

Against the backdrop of a more active recovery in consumer demand, the slowdown in inflation will be moderate: by the end of 2017, inflation will decrease to 4.5%, and in 2018-2019 to 4.3% and 4.1%, respectively. Net capital outflow from the private sector will decrease and by 2019 will amount to USD 15 billion.

Against the backdrop of rising oil prices, the strengthening of the ruble and a more favorable external environment, investment in fixed assets will recover at a faster pace. The average annual increase in investments in 2017-2019 will be 2.9% per year, with outpacing growth in investments from the infrastructure sector and private investment.

Due to the higher oil price in the “basic+” option, the amount of oil and gas revenues of the federal budget will be noticeably higher, which will ensure the achievement of a balanced federal budget.

Economic recovery under the “basic+” option will be characterized by higher rates: 1.1% in 2017, 1.8% in 2018, 2.4% in 2019.

The target option focuses on achieving the target indicators of socio-economic development and solving the problems of strategic planning. In the medium term, it is expected that the Russian economy will enter the trajectory of sustainable growth at rates not lower than the world average, while maintaining macroeconomic balance. As a result, retail trade turnover, after a moderate growth of 1.5-2.3% in 2017-2018, will accelerate to 5.3% in 2019.

Inflation will reach 3.9% in 2018. In 2019, inflation will remain at the level of 2018 on the back of increased consumer demand.

External conditions remain at the level of the “basic+” option, but in order to achieve the planned target parameters, the economy will need to switch to an investment development model. This implies containment in the first years of the forecast period of growth in consumption costs and a reduction in various types of business costs.

Merchandise exports will grow at a higher rate than in the baseline scenarios, non-commodity non-energy export growth rates will exceed the growth rate of exports as a whole and will average 4.9% in 2017-2019 in real terms. The volume of non-commodity non-energy exports in value terms will increase by 9 percent annually. In the structure of imports, the share of investment goods will increase, while investment imports will grow at a faster pace. The gradual recovery of the economy during the forecast period will help improve the business climate, which will be manifested in a reduction in net capital outflow until its complete cessation by 2019.

The new economic model assumes an active investment policy. The creation of an investment resource and conditions for the transformation of savings into investments, an increase in the propensity to invest through the implementation of macroeconomic and regulatory measures aimed at increasing the level of business confidence and improving the business environment will lead to an increase in the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in 2017-2019 on average up to 5.2% per year with outpacing growth of private investment and investment in the infrastructure sector.

Starting from 2017, subject to a gradual reduction in interest rates, which will have a positive impact on business lending, taking into account the implementation and launch of new major investment projects and economic policy measures aimed at activating economic growth factors and improving the efficiency of the economy, GDP growth rates will reach 4 .4% in 2019, up 2.3 pp compared to the base case.

The main indicators of the forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2017-2019

Table 1 - The main indicators of the forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2017-2019

GDP growth rates increase in 2017 to 1.8%, in 2018 to 3%. To achieve the target parameters of socio-economic development, it is necessary to carry out significant structural reforms in the framework of the budget policy, which, along with optimization and increase in efficiency, imply an increase in productive expenditures that ensure the macroeconomic efficiency of budget expenditures.

2.2. The main priorities of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation

By 2019, it is necessary to create conditions for the implementation of the main elements of a new model of economic development, the domestic economy should achieve stable growth based on the accelerated growth of private investment using modern technological solutions and strategic planning mechanisms. In accordance with the Federal Law of June 28, 2014 No. 172-FZ “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”, by the end of 2018, the stage of formation of a system of strategic planning documents within the framework of a single cycle of strategic planning of the Russian Federation will be completed.

A set of scientific and methodological studies and organizational measures will be carried out to improve the regulatory framework for strategic planning, to optimize the reporting system of federal executive bodies on the implementation of strategic planning documents and the effectiveness of implemented state regulation measures in the field of socio-economic development.

The socio-economic policy of the Government of the Russian Federation for the medium term (2017-2019) is based on the priorities formulated in Decrees of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2012 No. 596-606 and in the Main Directions of Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2018 .

The main priorities of economic policy in the forecast period are:

– increasing the investment attractiveness of the Russian Federation,

Improving the business climate and creating a favorable business environment;

Growth in the share of productive expenditures in the budget structure of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation;

Import substitution;

Improving the quality of life and increasing investment in human capital;

Balanced regional development;

Improving the quality of the functioning of government institutions;

Development of information technologies and support for high-tech sectors of the economy.

In terms of increasing the investment attractiveness of the Russian Federation, improving the business climate and creating a favorable business environment in 2017-2018, the main attention will be paid to the implementation of new initiatives of the business community, law enforcement practices and bringing information about the results of the implementation of the road maps to business representatives.

In order to preserve potentially solvent participants in economic turnover, the bankruptcy legislation will be amended to improve the mechanisms for their financial recovery.

The growth in the share of productive expenditures in the structure of the budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation will be ensured through the use of the mechanism of state programs of the Russian Federation in the budgetary process against the background of budgetary consolidation, which implies, first of all, measures to optimize and increase the efficiency of budgetary expenditures that do not provide significant macroeconomic effects.

The implementation of the Federal Law of July 13, 2015 No. 246-FZ “On Amending the Federal Law “On the Protection of the Rights of Legal Entities and Individual Entrepreneurs in the Exercise of State Control (Supervision) and Municipal Control” is aimed at maintaining the stability of tax conditions, which provides for the establishment 3-year “supervisory holidays” in relation to scheduled inspections for enterprises that have not had serious violations of established business requirements for three years.

As part of the import substitution process, starting from 2017, measures will be taken to create a mechanism for preferential lending to facilitate access for agricultural producers to credit funds. In terms of improving the quality of life and investing in human capital, a set of measures is planned:

Maintaining a zero VAT rate in 2017 for services for the carriage of passengers by rail in suburban traffic;

Construction within the program “Housing for the Russian family” of engineering, social and transport infrastructure facilities, including 92 preschool institutions and 44 secondary schools;

Creation of conditions for citizens of the Russian Federation to improve their living conditions at least once every 15 years.

It is expected that by 2018 the average interest rate on mortgage loans (in rubles) will exceed the consumer price index by no more than 2.2 percentage points.

In the field of education, regional, national and sectoral championships of professional excellence, all-Russian Olympiads and competitions in professions and specialties of secondary vocational education are held to increase the social prestige of working professions and secondary vocational education.

A program has been approved to promote the creation in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (based on the forecasted need) of new places in general educational organizations for 2016-2025, and equal conditions have been established for access to funding from the budgetary allocations of state, municipal and private organizations of additional education for children. In addition, a network of resource educational and methodological centers for the training of disabled people has been created on the basis of educational institutions of higher education.

In the healthcare sector, the key areas of state policy until 2018 are:

Ensuring the adoption of additional measures to improve the medical and economic efficiency of the health care system based on evidence-based analysis;

Development of a methodology for accounting for costs in medical organizations for the provision of medical care and calculating the cost of the program of state guarantees for the free provision of medical care to citizens;

Adoption of a road map for the development of nuclear medicine and diagnostic centers.

In the field of professional development, over the next two years, in order to develop an efficient and flexible market for skilled labor, work will continue to develop professional qualifications, including by updating the requirements for the competencies and qualifications of employees, as well as creating a system for independent assessment of their professional level. As regards the development of information technologies and support for high-tech sectors of the economy, work continues to eliminate the “digital divide” through the development of broadband access to the Internet information and telecommunications network, the launch of digital broadcasting throughout Russia, and ensuring the wide availability of television, taking into account new technological opportunities. In 2017-2018, support for import substitution of products in the field of information technology and promotion of software exports will continue.

In 2018, the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation will be developed, within the framework of which the share of overdue accounts payable in the expenditures of the consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation should be reduced from 0.22% in 2015 to 0.1% in 2020.

In terms of improving the quality of the functioning of government institutions, an important goal of structural socio-economic transformations is to improve the quality of public administration.

To achieve this goal, it is planned to introduce an institute for assessing the actual impact of adopted legislative acts, create a network of multifunctional centers for the provision of state and municipal services.

The tasks of increasing the efficiency of federal property management, privatization and the formation of integrated structures, as well as improving the mechanisms for managing federally owned shares and real estate, including land, remain relevant. At the same time, in 2017-2018, the course towards a consistent reduction in the public sector of the economy will continue.

Chapter 3. Improving financial forecasting in the Russian Federation

The transition of the Russian economy to an innovative path of development in the context of globalization and ever deeper integration of the country into world economic relations, the growth of the openness of the economy, is an imperative for maintaining sustainable economic growth rates in the medium and long term. In the era of globalization of the world economy, the basis for the successful positioning of a country, region, industry lies in constant innovative renewal aimed at achieving maximum productivity, competitiveness, and development of human capital. According to existing estimates, in developed countries, from 50% to 90% of GDP growth is determined by innovation and technological progress, innovation is becoming a prerequisite and the main “engine” for the development of all sectors of industry and services.

Financial forecasting is a study of specific prospects for the development of finances of business entities and government entities in the future, a scientifically based assumption about the volumes and directions of use of financial resources in the future. On the one hand, financial forecasting precedes financial planning, and on the other hand, it is an integral part of it, since the development of financial plans is based on indicators of financial forecasts.

In the process of forecasting economic development, it is necessary to optimally take into account the action of a whole complex of conflicting factors, due to the requirements for solving current and future problems of economic development. Today, in terms of forecasting the Russian economy, the choice of such a development option is relevant, which

would make it possible to overcome the general negative trend of development towards intensification, improve the qualitative indicators of the functioning of economic systems, such as increasing the efficiency of using all types of resources, accelerating the growth rate of national income both absolutely and relatively per capita, increasing the share of accumulation to scientifically justified values .

On the example of the modern Russian economy, the following disproportions can be identified that adversely affect the development of the economy:

The discrepancy between the volume and structure of capital investments and the requirements for ensuring the normal reproduction of fixed capital

Imbalance in the structure and volume of fixed capital and labor resources for regions, industries and enterprises

Unjustifiably high prices for the main types of fuel, energy and raw materials

Sharp property differentiation of the population

Imperfection of the tax system

Imbalance of the payment turnover, means of payment and the needs of enterprises and organizations for them.

The listed and other indicators of the imbalance of various aspects of the functioning of market economic systems are due to both objective factors and factors of a subjective nature, which manifest themselves in the absence and weak development of a forecasting system for the Russian economy, in an insufficiently balanced and politically conditioned approach to solving a number of complex problems.

Currently, the question of the need for a nationwide system of plans and forecasts for the development and functioning of all types of economic systems with an optimal ratio of state regulation and self-regulation of subjects of market relations is relevant. As such, there was no system of financial forecasting at the macroeconomic level in the Russian Federation. This was largely due to the fact that there was a transition from a planned system to a market economy, there were no qualified specialists in this area, no funds were allocated for these purposes.

In order to change the current situation, to ensure the competitiveness of the national economy in the long term, it is necessary to organize the process of forming an agreed vision of the technological future of Russia among all participants in this process: the state, business, science, civil society and try to achieve the set goals through joint efforts. The key role in organizing this process belongs to the state not only as its initiator, but also as a guarantor of the implementation of the agreements reached.

The most adequate tool for the implementation of the task is used in almost all developed and many developing countries - Foresight.

What is foresight?

Foresight is a tool for setting priorities and mobilizing a large number of participants to achieve qualitatively new results in the field of science and technology, the economy, the state and society.

Foresight differs from forecasting in a much more comprehensive approach.

First, forecasts, as a rule, are formed by a narrow circle of experts and in most cases are associated with predictions of little-controlled events (forecast of stock prices, weather, sports results, etc.). As part of the foresight, we are talking about assessing the possible prospects for innovative development associated with the progress of science and technology, outlines the possible technological horizons that can be achieved by investing certain funds and organizing systematic work, as well as the likely effects on the economy and society.

Secondly, Foresight always involves the participation (often through intensive mutual discussions) of many experts from all fields of activity, to some extent related to the subject of a particular foresight project, and sometimes also conducting surveys of certain population groups (residents of the region, youth and etc.) directly interested in solving the problems discussed within the framework of the project.

The third main difference between Foresight and traditional forecasts is the focus on developing practical measures to approximate the chosen strategic benchmarks.

The Foresight methodology differs from traditional forecasting, futurology (studying the future) and strategic planning and is not limited to prediction: it is a methodology for organizing a process aimed at creating a common vision of the future among the participants, which all stakeholders seek to support with their actions today. Thus, this methodology is not associated with predicting the future, but rather with its formation, which allows us to consider Foresight as a specific tool for managing technological development, based on the infrastructure created within its framework.

The concept of modern Foresight is based on: the interest of participants in foreseeing their future; their willingness to cooperate; their understanding of the need to focus on the long term; willingness to pool efforts and resources; creating a coordinating structure to help reach consensus.

The forecasting system cannot fully take into account all factors. The model cannot be too complex, but should cover the factors and take into account the main relationships:

Due to the fact that the Russian Federation is a little open economy, it is necessary to take into account interactions with the global economy and the impact of international competitiveness;

Due to the fact that the Russian Federation belongs to developing countries, capital and innovation are the main constraint on growth and productivity;

Particular attention should be paid to modeling investment in business and infrastructure (transport, communication and energy networks, educational and training institutions). The main determinant of investment opportunities is the legal and regulatory framework of the economy.

Ways to solve the problems of financial forecasting and its improvement lie in eliminating problems, i.e., first of all, these are the following actions:

Creation of special research centers for the development of forecasts in the Russian Federation at the level of state structures;

Training of highly qualified specialists in this field;

Use of methodological foundations of financial forecasting based on scientific developments of developed countries and methods of financial forecasting;

Attention should be paid to the poor quality of the projections of the long-term financial plan, which is a valid document, as well as the complete freedom and independence of the executive bodies from federal laws that approve the parameters of the federal budget in relation to indicators of the federal budget surplus and contributions to the stabilization fund;

In financial and economic policy, it is necessary to work out a mechanism for assessing the quality and reliability of forecast and planned (according to the budget) projections by economic departments, to develop a political and criminal system of responsibility of officials for gross miscalculations and deviations of forecasts and budget plans in comparison with the approved initial federal laws, as well as compared with real, actual indicators and real, quite predictable dynamics.

Conclusion

Financial forecasting is carried out by developing various options for the development of an organization, a separate administrative-territorial unit, the country as a whole, their analysis and justification, assessing the possible degree of achievement of certain goals, depending on the nature of the actions of planning subjects.

In the process of financial forecasting, specific methods are used to calculate financial indicators, such as mathematical modeling, econometric forecasting, expert assessments, trending and scripting, and stochastic methods.

Today, in the management of the Russian economy, a very important role is played by the inertial forecast of the economy, on the basis of which, according to the legislation, the concept of long-term economic development should be built, detailing the forecast itself.

The inertial forecast, of course, is multivariate, considers various scenarios and depends mainly on a set of important indicators: oil price, inflation, demographics, etc. Economic growth rates are derived from resources and other factors, and the product created in the future is “broken down” into different goals: social and others. But not everything is so simple - as a rule, some socio-economic standards are also set, which must be reached in the future, but nevertheless, they mainly depend on the dynamics of the volumes and productivity of economic resources, and not vice versa.

The conceptual and predictive solution of specific socio-economic problems at the level just proves the real social orientation of the state, brings the necessary stability to public opinion and is an important factor in ensuring confidence in the future (especially if plans are systematically implemented). And the population's confidence in the future, interest in the future is a powerful socio-psychological factor in increasing labor activity and economic growth.

The system of planning and forecasting should be explicitly focused on the specific benefit of each individual person, and not the efforts of a person should be directed to the abstract general goals of the state.

Moreover, the very process of future forecasting should be more democratic - if desired, not only the relevant state structures, but also independent organizations and experts should freely take part in it; it is possible to carry out wide surveys of the population about the shape of the desired future, wishes and fears, about development goals and ways to achieve them.

Future forecasting will be focused on general conceptual qualitative goals, build appropriate strategies, analyze multivariate development scenarios, take into account the probabilistic nature of development (which has been sharply increasing recently) and the system of risks (especially military-political factors and the increased catastrophic nature of world development), the unpredictability of many events . Concrete solutions to problems are detailed in major national economic projects and programs. In the future, as planning and forecasting develop, real programming and open planning of switching on/off economic regulators is possible depending on the state of the system of established development indicators - in this situation, the population and business will feel more and more confident and not be afraid of tomorrow. In many ways, the system of forecasting and planning will converge with public policy. The regulators of the market economy, as it develops, will be more and more economic, indirect, non-rigid in nature, replacing direct administration; the legislative system is stabilizing; the institutional environment will approach world standards.

As means of achieving the goals set, in the first place, not potential resource investments will be considered, but the development of fundamental and applied science, innovative processes, the formation of new principles of trust, public-private partnership, partnerships in society, the consolidation of society on the basis of common socio-political and cultural values.

Under the specified goals and objectives, the economic block should be adjusted, gradually ceasing to dominate in the public consciousness as a value in itself.

The development of the economic block is explicitly linked in forecasts to human capital, managerial capital, and social capital (“relationship” capital). All types of investments in the human factor (and the effect of these investments) are becoming the most important means of goals set by society.

The necessary infrastructure for the development of the human factor in the economy is the system of continuous education in conjunction with the improvement and expanded introduction of public information and communication technologies, the Internet, electronic libraries and databases, etc.

Another qualitatively important block of the future forecasting and planning system is long-term technology foresight, anticipation of revolutionary technological breakthroughs, planning of transitions to higher technological levels in order to solve socio-economic problems. In principle, in the future, the knowledge intensity of products, works, services, and any type of activity will steadily increase and indirectly testify to the successful development of the economy.

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