How to analyze football matches. Analysis of statistics, sports news and services, odds monitoring

Do sports betting without preliminary analysis and forecasting the outcome, perhaps the strangest decision of bookmaker players. In order to get a positive result over a long distance, you must predict the outcome of the meeting, and only then make a decision to bet on it or not. In this article, we will share practical tips, tell you how to properly analyze information and make predictions for matches, as well as give a clear algorithm of actions.

Predicting sports matches is not an easy task. The forecasting itself is a continuous analytics. In addition to the fact that you will need to process a huge flow of information, you also need to be able to sort it by importance, as well as "sort it into pieces". This is comparable to a large library. A huge number of books have been brought to you, you must sort by genre, author, significance (after all, uninteresting works can be removed away), or by some other features and parameters, put everything on shelves, and when you are asked to give out a book, in a few seconds you have to figure out where it is. It is the same with forecasting, first you read and receive information, and then at any moment you will have to pull it out of your head and apply it correctly. Such information can be statistics, injuries, statements by coaches and players, team goals for the season and for a particular match, motivation, and many others.

Before you start, it is worth recalling that the primary and one of the most important tasks of a player is the right choice of a bookmaker. Bet only in the best bookmakers! You can read about how to find a decent bookmaker. Well, we advise you to pay attention to three offices from our rating: BC "WINLINE", BC "MELBET" and BC "1XBET". These are high-quality and reliable betting operators that do not create problems for players, and this is the most important thing. Plus, in these bookmakers you will find a lot of events for betting, a wide range and excellent odds.

Selecting a sport and league to predict

First of all, you should choose a sport that you are well versed in. If you love football and hockey, know the players, teams, the various subtleties of these sports (and if you don’t know anything, then it’s not clear why you bet at all), then it makes no sense to climb, for example, tennis or basketball. Of course, it is best to specialize in one sport, but predicting two is, in principle, uncritical. In addition, you need to weed out those leagues and championships that you do not know. For example, if you predict football matches, then you need to choose the top leagues (the Premier League, Bundesliga, Premier League, Primera, etc.), and not climb into the third division of Zimbabwe or the fourth league of Germany. Predicting hockey matches - choose the KHL and NHL, predicting basketball - choose the NBA, etc. Most importantly - do not jump from one sport to another, and do not break into several championships. If you are experiencing difficulties and feel that, frankly, do not pull on several sports, championships, leagues, then it is better to reduce their number.

Forecasting includes four phases:

1. Collection of all kinds of information;
2. Processing and sorting information;
3. Analysis and preparation of a preliminary forecast;
4. Predicting the outcome of a match

Collection of information about the match

Statistics

At the first stage, you need to collect all the information about the match you need to make a prediction. First of all, study the statistics. Do not forget to divide all indicators into away, home and general.

The most important indicators:

• last meetings of the teams;
• last face-to-face meetings of rivals;
• tournament position;
• average value of goals scored per match;
• average value of goals conceded per match;
• average of goals scored in the last five matches;
• average of goals conceded over the last five matches.

Thanks to the statistics of the latest meetings, you can determine the current form of the team (players), scored / missed - from the same opera, only you can find out more about the performance at any segments of the season. Based on the history of face-to-face confrontations, a number of indicators can be determined, for example, the effectiveness of teams in a game with each other, how often opponents hit each other's goal, etc. According to the team's standings, you can determine the overall indicator of the game form (for a certain number of matches or for the season as a whole), as well as learn about the motivation and tasks of the team for the next game.

Lineups

Usually lineups become known an hour and a half before the start of the match, but according to information about injuries, you can have a rough idea of ​​the lineups for the upcoming match. You can also compare lineups, say, for the last three matches of the team.

Series

Highlight different streaks: wins in a row, losses in a row, goals scored in a row, goals conceded in a row, shutouts and meetings on "both to score". These are the most important indicators in forecasting.

News

Read the press, special attention should be paid to interesting facts, rather than the statements of players and coaches. An example of an interesting fact: “Lokomotiv” visiting “CSKA” cannot win in ten matches in a row. Here, an interesting fact is immediately evident, and statistics, and a series, in this case without victories. Such information always needs to be noticed, processed and applied.

Motivation

One of the most important factors is motivation. You must accurately find any motivational components. For example, the last round of the Champions League group stage is underway. Real Madrid are third in the group, two points behind Borussia Mönchengladbach, who are in second. The next match at the “Real” just with the “Borussia”, and at the “Santiago Bernabeu”. Obviously, the "Royal Club" sets itself the task of reaching the playoffs of the Champions League, and not getting into the Europa League, so the team will enter the match, which will also be home, with special emotions.

Rematches

The thirst for revenge is another of the most important factors that can directly affect the result of the match (in the case of approximately equal opponents). It is not uncommon for a team to rehabilitate itself in front of their fans after a major home defeat. Lost advantage and defeat in the last seconds, defeat in overtime, on shootouts, defeat due to a goal that was not counted according to the rules, defeat in the derby - all these situations give rise to a desire to take revenge from the opponent.

Derby

Separately, it is necessary to touch on the derby teams. Derby is a competition between teams from the same city or region. Opponents usually go to such matches over motivated, because the victory in the derby is doubly sweet, in addition, it very often promises good bonuses.

Information processing and sorting

When you have received a sufficient amount of information about the match, you need to immediately discard everything superfluous, and superfluous is something that will in no way affect the outcome of the match (garbage). Next, you need to structure the information, separating important factors from secondary ones. All factors are divided into direct, indirect and abstract.

Direct factors

direct factor- this is a factor that can directly affect the outcome of the meeting. For example, an injury to the leading player of Team 1.

Indirect factors

Indirect factor- this is a factor that can only indirectly affect the outcome of the meeting. For example, the appointment of a referee for a match, who does not skimp on red cards. Because of this, there is a high probability of a Team 1 player being sent off in the match, as a result of which Team 1 may concede, fail to score (in case of early removal), lose. The current weather, intra-team intrigues, disagreements, etc. are all indirect factors.

abstract factors

abstract factors- these are events during the match that cannot be foreseen in any way. For example, a player's injury during a match, worsening weather (rain, snow), fan noise, good luck and bad luck. Please note that it is the worsening weather, and not the current weather. The deterioration of the weather is an abstract factor, the current weather is indirect, but in combination with others it can also become direct. An example of failure: a player goes one on one with the goalkeeper, shoots and he falls into the post. An example of luck: a player shoots at the goal, a player appears in the path of the ball, and the ball after the rebound ends up in the net. Note that for one team the same hit on the post is bad luck, but for the other it will be good luck. Abstract factors should simply be neglected. Firstly, it is almost impossible to predict them, and secondly, in the case of successes and failures, we believe that there will be approximately an equal number of them in the match, and they compensate each other.

For us, the most important will be direct factors, and indirect ones only selectively. Why selectively? Yes, because an indirect factor in combination with other indirect factors and under certain conditions can become direct. If we take into account every little thing and calculate the probability of an event that was generated by another event, we will go crazy. You don't even have to go to the point of being idiotic.

How to make a preliminary prediction for a match?

Further, we work only with direct factors (statistics, injuries, etc.). We collect everything that happened and analyze. At this stage, you must choose the event in the match (bet) that you think should happen. Forget about calculating the probability of passing a bet or calculating the probability of an event occurring! In this case, you are interested in the following: will this event happen or not happen, 1 or 0, false or true. Naturally, the bet should be supported by something, and not taken at random. This is where you need to use that "principle of the library", pull out small pieces and start assembling the puzzle. You should be able not only to make a forecast, but also to explain your choice in favor of this rate.

How to Calculate Team Strength Rating

When making a preliminary forecast, you can use a very good system for calculating the strength of teams proposed by J. Miller. Ideally, it was written for American football games, but we tweaked it for football, hockey, and basketball. However, this system works better in high performance sports (volleyball, basketball, handball, American football, etc.).

First of all, you need to remember two main rules:

1. Use this system only after 5-6 championship rounds have been played;
2. Do not use the results of friendly and pre-season matches.

You take the last 5 meetings of the team and write down the goals scored, pucks, etc. Cross out the highest and lowest performance in terms of goals scored. Then add up the remaining three numbers and divide by three. In order to calculate the defense rating, do the same: cross out the largest and smallest value of goals conceded, then add and divide by three what is left.

Example

Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins of the National Hockey League.

Detroit's last five meetings:

Detroit 1-2 Anaheim
Detroit 3-4 Vancouver
Detroit 5-1 San Jose
Detroit 3-1 Florida
Detroit 3-2 Edmonton

Pittsburgh's last five meetings:

Pittsburgh 1-3 Buffalo
Pittsburgh 3-2 Arizona
Pittsburgh 6-1 Toronto
Pittsburgh 2-3 Montreal
Pittsburgh 3-1 New Jersey

Goals scored by Detroit: 1, 3, 5, 3, 3.
Missed washers "Detroit": 2, 4, 1, 1, 2.

Goals scored by Pittsburgh: 1, 3, 6, 2, 3.
Missed pucks "Pittsburgh": 3, 2, 1, 3, 1.

We cross out 1 and 5 goals (the smallest and the largest performance indicator), and add the remaining three indicators: 3+3+3=9. Now we divide this value by three: 9 \ 3 \u003d 3.

We cross out 1 and 4 goals (the smallest and the largest indicator of goals conceded), and add the remaining three indicators: 1 + 2 + 2 = 5. Now we divide this value by three: 5 \ 3 \u003d 1.66.

We cross out 1 and 6 goals (the smallest and the largest performance indicator), and add the remaining three indicators: 3+2+3=8. Now we divide this value by three: 8 \ 3 \u003d 2.66.

We cross out 1 and 3 goals (the smallest and the largest indicator of goals conceded), and add the remaining three indicators: 3+2+1=6. Now we divide this value by three: 6 \ 3 \u003d 2.

How to make a prediction for the exact score of the match?

The strength rating can be used to determine the preliminary score of the meeting between the two teams. Let's try to estimate how many points Detroit can score, and which Pittsburgh. To do this, add Detroit's attack rating to Pittsburgh's defense rating, and then subtract 3 (the average of team points in the NHL).

Average total for leagues and sports:

• NHL = 3
• KHL = 2
• NFL = 20
• NBA = 100
• Football = 1

Calculation:

"Detroit": 3+2-3 = 2
"Pittsburgh": 2.66+1.66-3 = 1.32

For home teams, you should almost always round up the value, or add 0.5 or 1, but you need to look at the average number of goals conceded by the opponent in away matches. If the away team concedes quite a lot, feel free to round up. You can also calculate the average value of goals scored / conceded for the season, or for a segment of at least 10 matches. In our example, we will round both values ​​up. Let's say that Detroit has a 2.66/2.53 goals/conceits record at home, and Pittsburgh has 2.71/2.55 goals away. “Pittsburgh” misses more than 2.5 washers on the road per game, so we increase the value of the goals scored by “Detroit”. Likewise, Detroit concedes more than 2.5 at home, while Pittsburgh has a high conversion rate on the road - 2.71 on average per game.

Thus, we calculated that the match "Detroit" - "Pittsburgh" can end with a score 2-2 or 3-2 (Boundary value). But now you need to start from additional information and indirect factors, which may affect the outcome of the meeting.

How to make a final match prediction?

First we have to check again. See if you have correctly interpreted the information you received, did you correctly separate direct and indirect factors if you missed anything important. Are you right calculated the strength rating of the teams. Further check if there is new information, and if it appeared, then you need to take it into account when making a forecast. Now analyze whether a combination of indirect factors will affect the successful passage of the bet. For example, if there are a lot of them, see if they have something in common. Wouldn't it be possible that one indirect factor together with another will give rise to a direct one? In any case, all this must be taken into account, but do not confuse yourself. Just analyze, ask yourself questions and answer them. You are just thinking, and confusion will not lead to anything good. You will end up simply entangled in your own thoughts and doubts.

This is how predictions for matches work. Remember that each match and each case is unique, so your situation may differ from those given. The most important thing, as already mentioned, is to collect information, discard the excess, analyze it and make a forecast, and then check yourself. Your main tool is statistics and news. Think and analyze, but don't get carried away. You need to analyze deeply, but quickly, otherwise you will drown in your own thoughts. Good luck forecasting!

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News on sports.ru and championat.com

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Clients of bookmakers use various tools when making a prediction for a particular sporting event. To get a stable profit from bets and be in the black over a long distance, you need to correctly analyze the events in the line and correctly determine the size of the bet.

How to analyze matches for betting?

After the publication of the painting by the office, the players begin to search for the necessary events and assess the chances of the selected positions. The main tool for analyzing fights is statistics. Experienced players use statistics sites with useful tables. With their help, you can determine the chances of certain events and place a bet according to the chosen strategy.

For example, let's take bets on total over 1.5 in hockey periods. To bet on this strategy, you need to study the statistics of the performance of teams in each period. Next, you need to select those segments of the match in which the teams most often broke through the total of 1.5.

After analyzing the performance of all the teams in each period, those who most often broke through the total over 1.5 in the first, second and third segments of the matches were selected. Based on these data, you can bet on the total of more than 1.5 teams highlighted in red. For more information, a breakdown was made into home and away matches.

The same methodology can be used to analyze other indicators of teams in various sports. For example, in tennis, you can find the players who win the most tiebreaks. With the help of basketball statistics, it will be possible to find outsiders who most often win certain quarters on their court. Valuable information can be extracted from statistics for various strategies.

With the help of statistics, you can determine the form of teams. It is enough to view 5 previous matches of opponents:

In this case, you can change the number of matches and choose home and away matches. In any case, the bettor sees the state of the teams and can decide what bet can be made.

Considerable attention should be paid to the valuation of the coefficients. An easy way to check whether a bet is profitable or not is to determine your odds for an event and convert them into odds. As a rule, the odds for the victory of the hosts are underestimated, and for guests with zero and plus handicaps they are overestimated. The same applies to favorites.

When analyzing fights, it is very important to take into account the motivation and composition of the teams. Motivation directly depends on the status of the tournament and where the team is. For example, let's take the hockey tournament at the 2018 Winter Olympics. Before it started, it was clear to everyone that the best players would not be able to participate. The NHL regular season has not stopped.

In this case, the bookmakers set the appropriate quotes. When analyzing the line, bettors kept in mind the fact that the teams would not play in optimal lineups.

If we analyze tennis matches, then we need to take into account which players play better on hard surfaces and which ones play better on clay. You should also pay attention to the growth of a tennis player. Very often, players with a height of under 2 meters have a killer serve. Due to them, they win most of the matches. If such a player takes part in the match, then the probability of a tie-break increases significantly. So you can bet on a tie-break in a match.

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How to analyze football matches for betting?

As mentioned above, when analyzing a football list, it is important to correctly determine the chances of teams and find value positions. On the example of the match Villarreal - Real Madrid, we will determine our coefficients. For Villarreal with a handicap of 0 and for his non-losing, the bookmaker set the following quotes:

Statistics show that Villarreal lost 5 times in 18 home matches. This is 27%. If translated into odds, then for the loss of Villarreal it should be 3.7. As for the away meetings of Real Madrid, the club won 10 times in 18 matches. This is 55% of the meetings. The odds will be 1.81. If we average the quotes, we get: (1.8+3.7)/2= 2.75. Such odds should be for Real Madrid to win. The bookmaker has it equal to 2.44. Therefore, it is overpriced for the hosts.

In this case, bets on not losing Villarreal or with a handicap of 0 will be promising. In the list, the coefficient on 1X is 1.55. The hosts went unbeaten in 13 out of 18 games. This means that the coefficient should be 1.38.

A similar analysis can be used for betting on total over and with handicaps. The calendar is of great importance. If, for example, a team had a tough match in European competitions before the match of the national championship, or its players took part in the match for the national team, then one should not expect an enchanting game from it.

Team composition matters a lot. First of all, you should check whether there are base players among the injured. Such information can be easily obtained on statistics websites:

The absence of one or more central defenders negatively affects the potential of the team. In this case, there may be a large number of dangerous moments in the gate. If the club does not have a worthy replacement for the defenders, then the midfielders will be forced to spend more time in defense, which may affect the attacking actions of the team.

When analyzing football matches for betting, you should pay attention to the midfield line. The emphasis must be on the defensive midfielder and on the extreme midfielders. If the club prefers to attack from the flanks, then the absence of one of the kraks can significantly change the tactics of the game.

As for the offensive line, it is very important here what condition the main striker is in. If he is in good shape, then it is likely that partners will play him more often. If the main striker is eliminated and he does not have a worthy replacement, then most of his functions will be transferred to the midfielders. It is quite possible that the attacking potential of the team will decrease, and in the next matches it will score less.

When analyzing the tournament motivation of teams, tasks should be taken into account first of all. There are clubs that aspire to the European Cup zone. They play home matches with great intensity, trying to defeat even the leaders. You can bet on them in home matches and even with zero odds against the leaders at convenient moments

There are clubs that are determined to fight for survival. These clubs should be given special attention in the end of the championship. Practice shows that in the final third of the championship, outsiders score the most points. You can bet on them in home matches against the middle peasants and even leaders, but with positive odds.

You can bet against the middle peasants, who do not aspire to European competitions, but have already secured themselves from relegation. Such teams are the least motivated at the end of the championship and more often than others are inferior to rivals who are fighting for something.

Analysis of matches for betting in bookmakers should be started immediately after the publication of odds. Reliable bettor tools are statistics sites, various calculators, as well as their own strategies and approaches. It is important to find value bets with which you can get stable profits.

Even professionals cannot always win in sports betting, but you should not open express bets relying only on luck.


You need to constantly collect statistics, check it, identify influencing factors and try to predict the result of a particular match. This is not easy to do, but until you become an expert, you will not be able to earn much.

How to analyze football matches? Most often, bookmakers bet on football.

That is why we decided to talk about the analysis before the match starts. This helps to build the correct forecast. It is also not superfluous to compare your assumptions with .

Analyze football matches correctly

The analysis of football matches will not help you if you use the services of an unverified company.

Now there are many bookmakers on the Internet, but not everyone can be trusted. The best in this regard has been 1xstavka for several years now. From the site of this company, I constantly receive payments.

A proven and reliable service that offers bettors a wide range of opportunities. In addition to choosing a BC, it makes sense to learn how to apply various ones. All professionals use cunning tactics while making forecasts in parallel.

If you decide to become a true football betting expert, there is a lot to learn. Professionals spend years, then to earn large sums.

Everyone has the same chance therefore, the sooner you educate yourself, the sooner you will achieve good results.

Rules for Match Analysis

Checks must be made approximately 10 hours before the match. This time is enough to collect all the information and make assumptions about the results of the game.

What exactly needs to be checked? Here are the main factors:

1. The state of the team is the most important factor influencing the results. Almost all teams have ups and downs, so sometimes even underdogs can pull ahead. The way the team played 4 years ago is outdated information, you need to look for up-to-date data.
2. Coaching - this item includes team motivation. Most beginners don't pay attention to this. It has already been seen more than once how players literally pull out a victory when they approach the first place in the tournament ladder. And if there is also a good coach, it can positively affect the game.
3. Location of the game - playing on "their own land", the players have more chances to win. It would seem, how is the field different? But the factor is really influential. In general, this moment is debatable, since some teams are considered "away", i.e. they often win not in their own field.
4. The results of personal meetings are a good hint for a better. You can look at the statistics on personal meetings and highlight the so-called "uncomfortable opponents". It is better to use it for totals and other types of bets. Those. when you are sure that the total score will not exceed some value.
5. The composition of the team is one of the main factors. Lineups can change several times during the tournament, and with it the strength of the team changes. Sometimes the players cannot enter the field for a number of reasons, and sometimes the line-up is deliberately changed by the coaches, you need to figure out which line-up the team is the favourite.
6. Breaking news - sports events have to be constantly studied, because they help to understand how the teams are set up, what happened to the players in life, who got injured, and so on. Every little thing can affect how the team as a whole or each individual player plays.
7. General statistics - this item could not have been included in the general list, since the analysis of football matches involves checking the results of other games. You need to compare not only goals scored, but also check corners, cards and much more. This will come in handy for betting.

You will have to spend a lot of time to analyze football matches, but without this it is unlikely that you will be able to win often.

Football is the favorite game of many millions of people. In each bookmaker you can see the richest line of football bets with interesting odds and outcomes: this is one of the main sources of income for bookmakers.

Predicting a football match is quite difficult. Football is one of the few sports where a team can have a playing advantage during the entire match, and eventually lose. A scored goal, a penalty that they failed to score, and a referee's flag raised by mistake, and the mistakes of the athletes themselves have their role.

Today we will give some tips that will fully answer the question, how to analyze football matches and not lose.

Choose championships.

Most beginners bet on all the championships that they see in the betting line. In the short run, this can be profitable, especially if the difference between the teams is obvious. In the long run, this will lead to regular losses and the loss of the pot.

A player can thoroughly study several championships and place bets on them, or casually get acquainted with three dozen and focus only on odds. In the first case, the player acquires a certain reputation, receives a stable income, can consult and exchange opinions with specialists in other tournaments. In the second case, he also acquires a certain reputation and monthly leaves a solid part of his salary in the bookmaker's office.

Explore Championships

After you have chosen several championships, study their features, advantages and disadvantages. Find out how they live. Ideally, look at tournament data for the last five years. This will allow not only to assess the level and nature of the championship, but also to get some information about the participants, to feel the style of each team, to see the potential.

Some teams have personal scores for each other, others are neutral. The championship can be international or national. In the second case, it is useful to familiarize yourself with the features of the chosen country.

Let's take the Turkish Championship as an example. The Black Sea teams - Rizespor, Samsunspor, Sebatspor - do not have personal accounts for each other and play without much strain. If you look at the Istanbul teams, then you can immediately stumble upon a century-old confrontation between Galatasaray and Fenerbahce, going on all fronts at once. And it doesn't matter who is to blame for this feud, and whether there was a culprit at all - the fact is that every match between the teams can lead to a clash of fans and a stabbing.

Conduct pre-game analysis

Having decided on the championship, it is necessary to conduct a pre-game analysis of football matches. It includes searching, studying and analyzing information. For example:

1. Research and analysis of pre-match reviews from reputable independent sources. The sources can be both professional sports analysts and former players or coaches, referees and commentators.
2. Studying information about injuries, substitutions, disqualifications. Along with this, it is worth analyzing how important the injured or disqualified athlete is for the team and whether he has a replacement from the reserve.
3. Analysis of the significance of the championship. In some unimportant championships, elite teams do not give all the best or put up a second or third squad.

Statistics analysis

Analysis of football matches for betting includes analysis of statistics. In this case, the composition, mood, injuries and other indicators do not matter. Exclusively numbers, patterns, statistical indicators.

Statistical football match analysis may include the following:

1. Team form. To evaluate it, you can look at how and with whom the selected team played the last ten matches. This is enough to conclude whether the players are on the rise or in the middle of a losing streak.
2. History of personal meetings between teams. Moreover, the meetings that took place 20-50 years ago are of secondary importance. It is important what is happening now and what has happened over the past two or three years.
3. Trend analysis. Studying meetings 20-30 years ago makes sense if we have, for example, a series of five victories or five lost matches in which the team did not score a single goal. You can look at how similar meetings ended in the past and assess the possibility of repeating a similar situation in the future.

Using our advice and following your own gaming strategy, you will be able to receive a constant and stable income from football betting. Remember - even if you are one hundred percent sure that the chosen team will win, there is always a place for sensations in sports.