Global Risks and Russia's Economic Security: Management Problems. The main risks of economic security

1. The concept of economic security and the activities of the organization to ensure it (SURS)

2. Place and role of economic risk in ensuring the economic security of the organization (SURS).

3. Classification of economic risks.

4. Risk indicators and methods for its assessment.

5. Management of economic risk in modern business conditions, methods of its reduction.

3. Classification of economic risks.

Risk is an objectively inevitable element of making any economic decision due to the fact that uncertainty is an inevitable characteristic of business conditions.

The category "risk" can be defined as the danger of a potentially possible, probable loss of resources or shortfall in income compared to the option, which is designed for the rational use of resources in this type of business activity. In other words, risk is the threat that the entrepreneur will incur losses in the form of additional expenses or receive income below those he expected.

Entrepreneurial refers to the risk arising from any type of entrepreneurial activity related to the production of products, goods and services, their sale; commodity-money and financial transactions, commerce, as well as the implementation of scientific and technical projects.

The economic literature highlights the following risk functions : innovative, regulatory, protective and analytical.

There are risks:

risk associated with economic activity;

the risk associated with the personality of the entrepreneur;

risk associated with a lack of information about the state of the external environment.

According to the sphere of occurrence, entrepreneurial risks can be divided into external and internal . To external include risks that are not directly related to the activities of the entrepreneur. We are talking about unforeseen changes in the legislation regulating entrepreneurial activity; instability of the political regime in the country of activity and other situations, and, accordingly, the losses of entrepreneurs resulting from the outbreak of war, nationalization, strikes, embargoes.

source domestic risk is the entrepreneurial firm itself. These risks arise in the case of ineffective management, erroneous marketing policies, and also as a result of intra-company abuse. The main among internal risks are personnel risks associated with the professional level and character traits of employees of an entrepreneurial firm.

In modern business conditions, there are two types of entrepreneurial risk according to the level of decision-making: macroeconomic (global) risk and risk at the level of individual firms (local).

From the point of view of duration in time, entrepreneurial risks can be divided into short term and permanent . The short-term group includes those risks that threaten the entrepreneur for a finite known period of time, for example, a transport risk, when losses may occur during the transportation of goods, or the risk of non-payment for a specific transaction.

Permanent risks are those that continuously threaten business activities in a given geographic area or in a particular industry, such as the risk of non-payment in a country with an imperfect legal system or the risk of building collapse in an area with high seismic hazard.

Since the main task of the entrepreneur is to take risks prudently, without crossing the line beyond which the bankruptcy of the company is possible, it is necessary to single out tolerable, critical and catastrophic risks .

According to the degree of legitimacy of entrepreneurial risk, the following can be distinguished: justified (lawful) and unjustified (illegal) risks .

All business risks can also be divided into two large groups in accordance with the possibility of insurance: insured and uninsured .

Insurance risk is a probable event or set of events against which insurance is carried out. Depending on the source of danger, insurance risks are divided into two groups:

risks associated with the manifestation of the elemental forces of nature (weather conditions, earthquakes, floods, etc.);

risks associated with purposeful human actions.

Risks worth insuring include:

probable losses as a result of fires and other natural disasters;

probable losses as a result of car accidents;

probable losses as a result of damage or destruction of products during transportation;

probable losses as a result of errors of the company's employees;

probable losses as a result of the transfer of commercial information by employees of the company to competitors;

probable losses as a result of non-fulfillment of obligations by subcontractors;

probable losses as a result of the suspension of business activity of the company;

probable losses as a result of possible death or illness of the head or leading employee of the company;

probable losses as a result of a possible illness, death or accident with an employee of the company.

Two more large groups of risks should be distinguished: statistical (simple) and dynamic (speculative) . The peculiarity of statistical risks lies in the fact that they almost always carry losses for entrepreneurial activity. At the same time, losses for an entrepreneurial firm, as a rule, mean losses for society as a whole.

According to the cause of losses, statistical risks can be further subdivided into the following groups:

probable losses as a result of a negative effect on the company's assets of natural disasters (fire, water, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.);

probable losses as a result of criminal actions;

probable losses due to the adoption of unfavorable legislation for the entrepreneurial firm;

probable losses as a result of a threat to the property of third parties, which leads to the forced termination of the activities of the main supplier or consumer;

losses due to the death or incapacity of key employees of the firm or the main owner of the entrepreneurial firm.

Unlike statistical risk, dynamic risk carries either a loss or a profit for an entrepreneurial firm. Therefore, they can be called "speculative". In addition, dynamic risks leading to losses for an individual firm can simultaneously bring benefits to society as a whole. Therefore, dynamic risks are difficult to manage.

In addition, it is worth highlighting:

political risk;

production risk;

commercial risk;

financial risk;

technical risk;

industry risk;

innovation risk.

Political risks can be divided into four groups:

the risk of nationalization and expropriation without adequate compensation;

transfer risk associated with possible restrictions on the conversion of local currency;

the risk of termination of the contract due to the actions of the authorities of the country in which the counterparty company is located;

the risk of hostilities and civil unrest.

The main causes of production risk include:

a decrease in the planned volumes of production and sales of products due to a decrease in labor productivity, equipment downtime, loss of working time, lack of the required amount of raw materials, an increased percentage of defective products;

price reduction;

increase in material costs;

growth of the payroll fund by exceeding the target number or by paying a higher than planned wage level to individual employees;

an increase in tax payments and other deductions as a result of a change in the tax rate in an unfavorable direction for an entrepreneurial firm;

low discipline of deliveries, interruptions in fuel and electricity;

physical and moral depreciation of the equipment of domestic enterprises.

The main reasons for commercial risk:

decrease in sales volumes as a result of a fall in demand or demand for goods;

increase in the purchase price of goods in the process of implementing an entrepreneurial project;

an unforeseen decrease in the volume of purchases in comparison with the planned ones, which reduces the scale of the entire operation and increases the cost per unit of volume of goods sold (due to conditionally fixed costs);

loss of goods;

loss of quality of goods in the process of circulation (transportation, storage), which leads to a decrease in its price;

an increase in distribution costs compared to those planned as a result of the payment of fines, unexpected duties and deductions, which leads to a decrease in the profits of an entrepreneurial firm.

Commercial risk includes:

the risk associated with the sale of goods (services) on the market;

the risk associated with the transportation of goods (transport);

the risk associated with the acceptance of goods (services) by the buyer;

the risk associated with the solvency of the buyer;

risk of force majeure.

Separately, it is necessary to highlight the transport risk. Currently, various transport risks are classified by degree and by responsibility in four groups: E, F, C, D.

Technical risks include:

probability of losses due to negative results of scientific research;

the probability of losses as a result of failure to achieve the planned technical parameters in the course of design and technological development;

the probability of losses as a result of low technological capabilities of production, which does not allow mastering the results of new developments;

the probability of losses as a result of the occurrence of side or delayed manifestations of problems when using new technologies and products;

the probability of losses due to equipment failures and breakdowns, etc.

Financial risk includes:

currency risk: economic risk; transfer risk; transaction risk;

credit risk: property, moral and business;

investment risk (table 1).

Table 1 Main types of investment risk

* Expert assessment on a 10-point scale, increased risk from 1 to 10.

This classification is rather conditional, since it is difficult to draw a hard line between individual types of risks. Many risks are interconnected, and changes in one of them cause changes in the other, but all of them ultimately affect the performance of an entrepreneurial firm and require accounting for the successful operation of this firm.

Introduction.

Decisions made under risk are those whose outcomes are not certain, but the probability of each outcome is known. Probability is defined as the degree of possibility of a given event and varies from 0 to 1. The sum of the probabilities of all alternatives must be equal to one. Under certainty, there is only one alternative.

The most desirable way to determine probability is objectivity. Probability is objective when it can be determined by mathematical methods or by statistical analysis of accumulated experience. An example of objective probability is, for example, that a coin comes up “tails” 50% of the time. Another example is the forecasting of the death rate of the population by life insurance companies. Since the entire population serves as the base of experiment (experience), insurance actuaries can predict with high accuracy what percentage of people of a certain age will die in it. next, etc. years. From this data, they determine how much insurance premiums they need to receive in order to pay insurance claims and still make a profit.

In a real, dynamic economy, the future is always uncertain and unpredictable. This means that the entrepreneur takes the risk. The risk of not getting the intended results is especially evident in the generality of monetary and commodity relations, the competition of participants in economic turnover.

In the early days of the Industrial Revolution, Adam Smith found it necessary to include in profits something like an insurance premium to compensate for the risk that a person who invested in a business ventured. A. Smith, and other representatives of the classical school of economic theory, attributed the risk to the factors in the formation of part of the profit.

The purpose of entrepreneurship is to obtain maximum income with minimal capital expenditure in a competitive environment. The implementation of this goal requires a comparison of the size of the capital invested in production and trade activities with the financial results of this activity. In the implementation of any type of economic activity, there is objectively a danger (risk) of losses, losses, shortfalls in planned income, profit.

Thus, risk is the probability of losses, losses, shortfalls in planned income, profit.

The factors influencing the economy and management decisions and the risks associated with this process can be conditionally divided into five main groups: political, legal, economic, social and technological.

Business in Russia is closely associated with risks, so the system of anti-risk measures is becoming an integral part of economic activity.

2. Risks, dangers, threats to the activity of an enterprise (firm)

The strategic plans of the enterprise are implemented in conditions of ambiguity in the course of real socio-economic processes. At the time of decision-making, it is practically impossible to obtain accurate and complete knowledge about the remote environment for the implementation of the enterprise strategy, about all existing or potentially emerging internal and external factors. All this is the essence of the expression of uncertainty as an objective form of existence of the world around us. This or that manifestation of uncertainty can delay the onset of planned events, change their content or quantitative assessment, or cause an undesirable course of events (UDS), both foreseen and unexpected. As a result, the intended goal, for the sake of which strategic decisions are made, will not be achieved. An important strategic goal of the enterprise is to achieve economic security.

The economic security of an enterprise (firm) is such a state of a given economic entity in which the vital components of the structure and activities of the enterprise are characterized by a high degree of protection from undesirable changes. To do this, the enterprise should adhere to a strategy that provides a sufficient level and build-up of socio-economic potential, sustainable business development and preparedness for possible undesirable changes in the sphere of its life.

The assessments of the safety and degree of risk that the subject has, i.e. his knowledge, obtained by him either independently on the basis of experience and intuition, or specially developed on the basis of a study of the situation, including with the help of specialists, determines his sense of security (danger). In turn, the feeling of security either encourages the subject to search for ways to improve security, achieve its acceptable level, or allows him to switch his activity and resources to other goals if the security assessments are high, i.e. the level of risk is high.

An applied analysis of the problems of economic security and risk associated with the activities of a particular enterprise should be carried out in the context of a general description of its functioning. The economic manager, being in the sphere of the fatal action of certain deviating factors, is forced to take risks, i.e. make decisions in conditions of incomplete information, “without accurate calculation”, hoping for luck, which requires a certain courage and determination from him. Risk is an inevitable part of any economic activity. However, in itself, the presence of risk accompanying the activities of a particular market entity is neither an advantage nor a disadvantage. Moreover, the absence of risk, i.e., the danger of unpredictable and undesirable events for the subject or the consequences of his actions, as a rule, ultimately harms the economy, undermines its dynamism and efficiency. Therefore, the existence of risk and the inevitable changes in its distribution are a constant and powerful factor in the development of the entrepreneurial sphere of the economy.

As for industrial enterprises, whose economic activity is mainly related to the production of products, they can operate and develop successfully only by avoiding excessively risky decisions. In particular, this applies to large industrial enterprises, since they involve thousands of workers, most of them risk-averse, in risky situations. For such enterprises, decisions and actions focused on risk reduction are characteristic. In this sense, they fundamentally differ from those economic structures whose economic activity is associated precisely with the use of situations of increased risk (operations in the stock markets, speculation in securities, venture financing, etc.). P.).

The strategic plans of an enterprise are developed based on some fixed conditions, or at least on their more or less predictable development. Due to the fact that such assumptions are often violated, especially in the long term, there is always a chance not to achieve the intended goal, not to get the planned strategic result. The possibility of deviation from the goal of a strategic decision, i.e., the discrepancy between the actually obtained economic result and the one planned at the time of decision-making, is usually characterized using the category of "economic risk". Note that this discrepancy is not necessarily for the worse; it is very possible that the result will exceed expectations. However, this is more the exception than the rule.

The possible negative consequences of strategic decisions made and implemented without taking into account risk can be very painful for the enterprise and business. For an enterprise developing its strategy, ignoring risk can manifest itself in various undesirable economic results. These include, for example, a decrease in stock prices (instead of the planned increase), a decrease in profits and a decrease in investment efficiency compared to the level planned without risk, inefficient expenditure of material, labor or financial resources, the formation of excess stocks of unsold products, and other types of lost profits. and economic losses.

Thus, the concept of acceptable risk, orienting the economic manager to a conscious, rational - as opposed to adventurous, irresponsible - attitude to risk, offers methodological recommendations that are important for business activity in the field of material production. First, risk is not a static characteristic, but a controlled parameter; its level can and, most importantly, must be influenced. Secondly, since such an impact can only be exerted on a “recognized” risk, it must be analyzed, i.e., identify and identify risk factors, evaluate the consequences of their manifestation, etc. Thirdly, in order to correctly take into account risk in the activities of a manufacturing enterprise, it is useful to distinguish between the “starting” level of risk, or the risk of conceiving the initial idea of ​​​​a project (economic event) or strategy option, and the “final” level of risk, the assessment of which was made (for the chosen strategy of the enterprise, of the accepted version of the project, planned for the implementation of economic activities, etc.) after the necessary risk assessment procedures have been completed and a set of measures has been developed to mitigate or neutralize the consequences of the manifestation of risk factors.

Determining the acceptable value of the risk level is an independent task of a special study, and establishing a certain level as such is the prerogative of the enterprise management or, at least, a manager of a higher level than the risk analyst. In the practical economic activity of the enterprise, taking into account the concept of acceptable risk, it is recommended:

When making economic decisions, take into account the possibility of reducing the level of "starting" risk to an acceptable "final" level;

Identify potential situations and risk factors that may cause failure to achieve the set goals;

Assess the characteristics of possible damage associated with an undesirable development of events;

In advance, at the stage of preparation of economic decisions, plan and, if necessary, implement measures to reduce the risk to an acceptable level;

When making decisions, take into account the costs associated with a preliminary analysis and assessment of risk and the preparation of measures to achieve an acceptable “final” level of risk.

At a manufacturing enterprise, the concept of acceptable risk should be implemented in such an organization of the management process that the emerging risk factor does not come as a surprise to the manager and that unreasonable decisions do not have to be made in a hurry.

We will call the risk factors of the strategic decision of the enterprise the prerequisites that increase the likelihood or reality of the occurrence of events that, not included in the circle of planned ones, can potentially come true and in this case have a deviating effect on the implementation of the strategic plan (enterprise strategy). The result of the manifestation of the risk factor will be an undesirable development of events, the consequences of which will lead to a deviation from the set strategic goal of the enterprise, i.e. to damage. Such events include both those that could be foreseen, but it is impossible to accurately indicate the moment of occurrence, and those that could not be predicted.

Causes of risk (i.e., the causes of the implementation or occurrence of risk events) are objective or subjective actions or decisions that entail an undesirable development of further events that are unfavorable for the implementation of some enterprise strategy.

In order to judge the significance of a particular risk factor and the adequacy of the preventive measures taken, the risk must be expressed in comparable terms.

The risk level of the strategy (strategic plan) is taken as a general risk characteristic. Its value as a result of an appropriate special study is expressed by some indicator of the level of risk.

An indicator of the level of risk, or simply an indicator of the risk of a strategy, is the level of risk expressed according to a certain rule in a certain scale. As a risk indicator, for example, a weighted average estimate of the magnitude of damage over all possible chains of LDCs, etc. can be used. In strategic planning, quantitative risk assessments should be treated very carefully and not taken on a “stronger” scale than it was due from the very beginning.

The center of gravity of efforts in taking into account the risk of strategic decisions should be shifted from the construction of complex models to the search, systematization and detailed description of risk factors and the development of functional risk management methods. To maintain the economic security of a manufacturing enterprise in a transformational economy, it is necessary to take into account all types of risk factors

3. Sources and risk factors

Abstract

The article proposes an approach to determining the negative impacts of economic security through risks and threats. The stages of ensuring economic security by managing negative impacts are considered. Methods for assessing risks and threats through determining the probability of causing damage to socio-economic systems of various levels of management are proposed.

Keywords

Risks, threats; negative impacts; economic security

Risks and threats to economic security: identification, assessment and counteraction to influence

T. Yu. Feofilova, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of State, Municipal and Organizational Management, State Polar Academy

The problems of ensuring economic security have been actively discussed by politicians, scientists, and practitioners in various fields of public activity for two decades, but not all aspects in this area have sufficient theoretical and methodological elaboration. These can reasonably include issues of identification, assessment and counteraction to risks and threats to economic security.

economic security understood:

As such a state of the economy, which ensures the guaranteed protection of national interests, sustainable socially oriented development of the country as a whole, sufficient defense potential even under the most unfavorable conditions for the development of internal and external processes;

Status and development trends of protection of important interests of the society and its structures from internal and external threats.

You can also give about forty definitions of economic security, formulated by young and distinguished economists, lawyers, sociologists, etc. We adhere to the point of view that defines economic security through the prism of the state of the economy, subject to the influence of negative impacts. From our point of view, economicsafety- this is the state of the economy, in which the protection of national, regional, local and personal socio-economic interests is ensured in the face of the adverse impact of negative impacts, achieved through the implementation by government bodies and society of institutional norms enshrined in regulatory legal acts.

This state is achieved by ensuring economic security. Using modeling methods, the mechanism describing the state of economic security can be represented as follows. Negative impacts of any nature and sources of origin affect the system for ensuring economic security, if it is not effective enough, they penetrate through it and affect the economic system, possibly causing damage to the latter.

In the process of ensuring economic security, we single out several constituents:

Assessment of the impact of negative impacts on the state of economic security;

Application of measures to minimize the impact of negative impacts on the system of ensuring economic security;

Application of measures to minimize the impact of negative impacts on the economic system.

Assessing the impact of negative impacts. We divide negative impacts into risks and threats, which are of a probabilistic nature and differ in the degree of probability of causing damage to socio-economic systems. It should be noted that such a structure of negative impacts is not generally recognized.

The starting point for conducting research to determine the negative impacts that affect economic systems was the work of leading domestic economists, published in 1994 in a specialized issue of the journal "Economic Issues" (No. 12).

In this periodical, K. Samsonov, in relation to the economic system, divides the impact on external and internal long-term risk factors that negatively affect economic security, in particular, the stability and sustainability of the country's economic development. So, the author suggests the sources of risk formation. External factors include geopolitical and foreign economic, as well as global environmental processes.

Internal risk factors are subdivided into those related to the laws of the cyclical development of the economic system and non-economic ones (for example, the transformation of the national-state structures of Russia and the establishment of the principles of real federalism in them).

From the point of view of K. Samsonov, the scale and stability of these factors lead to the conclusion that under certain conditions they can have negative consequences at the macroeconomic level and pose a real threat to the economic security of Russia.

K. Samsonov outlined the relationship between threats to economic security and long-term risk factors by exceeding the threshold value of indicators characterizing risk factors. At the moment of exceeding the threshold values ​​of indicators, long-term risk factors are qualified as threats to economic security. At the same time, our understanding of the relationship between risks and threats is similar and consists in the occurrence of a certain (threshold) degree of probability of causing damage to the economic system.

S. Afontsev, on the contrary, presents threats to economic security as shocks: “threats to economic security are endogenous and exogenous shocks of economic or political origin that can cause destabilization of the national or international economic system” .

In this way, despite the theoretical and practical significance of the category "threat to economic security", there is still no single approach to its definition. At the same time, authors often do not offer their own understanding of threats, limiting themselves to listing the negative impacts that, in their opinion, relate to threats (or other categories) to economic security.

Summarizing the above and taking into account the current practice of application, we consider the use of the categories "risks" and "threats" to be the most successful in identifying negative impacts.

So, negative impacts is a set of all impacts that can cause damage to the economic system of a certain level with varying degrees of probability. This representation makes it possible to differentiate, according to the possibility of causing damage to the economic system, various impacts for the levels of economic security. As already noted, the grouping of negative impacts is based on the probability of a moment when real damage will be inflicted on the economy.

Risks themselves in the development process can have both positive and negative impact on economic security, and a neutral result is quite possible. As noted earlier, risk- probabilistic category. If we quantify the possibility of causing damage from 0 to 1, then the risk is in the range from 0.3 to 0.5, the threat is from 0.7 to 0.9. The interval from 0.5 to 0.7 will be a threat-forming risk, that is, such an influence does not have a clear “intention” to cause damage, but the indicated trend is clearly visible.

Assessment of negative impacts- this is a process by which the compliance of the expected results - damage to the economic system, specific forms and intensity of the impact on the economic security of negative impacts is determined. In other words, the assessment involves:

- firstly, identification of negative impacts;

- Secondly, determination of changes in the strength of the influence of negative impacts on economic security in the period;

- third, identification of possible changes in the economic system adequate to the influence of negative impacts.

To assess the risks and threats to economic security, you can apply the mathematical methods used for the analysis of uncertainties. However, in this case, a solid information material is needed that can be statistically processed, which, with rare exceptions, researchers and analysts do not have in real conditions. Therefore, it is advisable to use methods of expert assessments that have proven themselves in the analysis of stochastic models.

Application of measures to minimize the impact of negative impacts on the economic security system. It is well known that the disease is easier and better to prevent than to cure it. A corresponding analogy can be drawn in the chain "negative impacts - the system for ensuring economic security - the state of the economy." In it, the system of ensuring economic security acts as a warning force. At present, in the Russian Federation, the system for ensuring economic security is structurally represented by almost all federal executive bodies that are related to the regulation of socio-economic systems. This follows from the powers enshrined in the regulations or issues of a particular department. But the presence of the phrase "economic security" in the powers or functions does not, unfortunately, imply the inclusion of a governing body as a structural element in the mechanism for ensuring economic security. As the modern crisis has shown, the formulated statement under itself has sufficient grounds.

Thus, we see the following actions in building a system for ensuring economic security:

Institutional consolidation of the content of ensuring economic security;

Clear definition of areas of responsibility, powers and functions of government bodies;

Reflection in administrative regulations of specific actions and measures to minimize the impact of negative impacts on the system of ensuring economic security;

Training of specialists (bachelors and masters) in the direction of "economic security".

A systematic approach will make it possible to more reliably and timely identify negative impacts, develop and implement measures to minimize their impact on the economic security system.

Application of measures to minimize the impact of negative impacts on the economic system necessary after the economic security system proved unable to resist. Here it should be highlighted two stages:

The first is aimed at the formation of threshold values ​​of indicators characterizing the state of the socio-economic system;

The second is the development and implementation of measures to prevent deviations of actual values ​​from threshold values ​​or to restore them to the required range.

The problem of economic security criteria is considered by domestic scientists in parallel with the definition of the essence of the category "economic security". Therefore, the multiplicity of approaches to the definition of this concept predetermined the same diversity in the formation of a system of criteria and indicators for evaluating economic security.

The system of criteria and threshold values ​​of economic security indicators developed by I. Ya. Bogdanov, which is based on data from sources summarizing world experience, as well as on the results of scientific and practical research by Russian scientists, has received the greatest fame. Not all indicators proposed by I. Ya. Bogdanov are a reflection of the state of the economic system, but they, at the same time, can act as estimates of the state of the country's economic security. Moreover, depending on the characteristics of socio-economic systems, it is advisable to consider the same parameters both as indicators characterizing the degree of influence of negative factors on economic security, and as indicators characterizing the actual content of these negative impacts.

In early 2000, the Center for Financial and Banking Research of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences proposed to form a four groups of thresholds to assess the level of economic security:

1) macroeconomic, reflecting the main, fundamental features of national interests and approved at the government level;

2) revealing and supplementing these main features and approved by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia;

3) functional and sectoral level, approved by the relevant ministries;

4) economic security of the regions.

Thus, the Center determines the need to build a vertical and horizontal structure of the system of indicators of the country's economic security. We believe that such a construction is the most reasonable for the Russian Federation, since it will allow taking into account the sectoral and territorial features of economic security.

At present, the Center for Financial and Banking Research of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences has proposed expanding the composition of economic security indicators from 19 to 32, supplementing them with a number of financial, social, and demographic indicators that are particularly sensitive to the variability of the socio-economic situation.

The publications highlight various approaches to the formation of indicators of economic security and their threshold values. From our point of view, the list of indicators of the state of economic security should be dynamic and reflect the reaction of the socio-economic system to external and internal processes. Threshold values ​​cannot be static either. Therefore, we share the point of view of V. A. Bogomolov, who rightly believes that the critical value of economic security indicators does not always mean a situation of complete collapse of the economy or its individual areas. It, first of all, testifies to the need for prompt intervention by the authorities in order to change dangerous trends.

This article attempts to systematize the elements included in the field of economic security. From the foregoing, there is an understanding of the imperfection of the mechanism for ensuring economic security, including due to insufficient knowledge of the risks and threats to economic security, the lack of a balanced system to minimize their impact.

General Theory of National Security: Textbook / Ed. ed. A. A. Prokhozheva. - Ed. 2nd, add. - M.: Publishing House of the RAGS, 2005. S. 12.

Afontsev S. Debatable problems of the concept of national economic security // Russia XXI. 2001. No. 2. S. 60-66.

After repeated analysis of the financial and technological potential of Russian enterprises in various industries, an approximate ratio of the significance of the functional components of economic security was obtained, based on the following provisions.

• 1. In ensuring economic security and efficient functioning of trading enterprises and enterprises operating in the financial markets, including banks, enterprises operating in the stock markets, carrying out insurance and investment activities, an important role is played by business information support, as well as the factor of financial activity. To ensure the economic security of enterprises operating in the financial markets, the level of personnel plays a very important role. At the same time, both for enterprises operating in the financial and stock markets, and for trading enterprises, the role of the power component of economic security is higher compared to industrial and agricultural enterprises, while the impact of environmental problems is significantly less important for them.
• 2. For industrial and agricultural enterprises, the role of financial support for their production activities is approximately equally important. At the same time, for industrial enterprises, compared to agricultural enterprises, the role of the intellectual and personnel components, as well as the information support system for production is significantly higher (the latest technological information and information about the movement of the enterprise's markets are especially important). At the same time, for agricultural producers, the environmental component is much more significant than for industrial enterprises. This is due to the fact that for agricultural enterprises land is the main factor of production and the environmental situation significantly affects the results of agricultural business, while industrial enterprises concern environmental problems only through systems of penalties for environmental pollution and violation of environmental standards for manufactured products.

The risk in economic activity is the possibility of financial losses (decrease in profits, income, loss of capital, etc.) under uncertain conditions of investment activity. The risk arises due to the uncertainty of the external and internal environment.

It is impossible to avoid risk in economic activity, but it is possible and even necessary to be able to manage it, trying to prevent negative consequences.

Consider the main methods of dealing with risk.

Risk avoidance method. It is used by entrepreneurs who prefer to act without risk. The essence of this method is to choose a conservative strategy. The decision to choose such a strategy is made, as a rule, at the stage of project development.

Risk compensation method. This is a proactive method. Unlike the previous one, it does not imply risk avoidance, but involves the creation and active use of various tools to combat risks and their negative consequences. This is the use of a forecasting and strategic planning system in the activities of the enterprise, active marketing, and the creation of reserve funds.

Risk diversification method. This method involves the distribution of risks by timing, structure, sources of occurrence, etc. In financial investment, we are talking about portfolio diversification, when investment capital is distributed among securities with different risks, returns and correlations in order to minimize non-systematic risk.

When diversifying business risks (real investment), this group of risk management methods includes various diversification options:

• diversification of activities, understood as an increase in the number of used or ready-to-use technologies, expanding the range of products or services provided, targeting different social groups of consumers, etc.;
• market diversification, those. work simultaneously on several commodity or regional markets;
• diversification of purchases of raw materials and materials involves interaction with many suppliers, which reduces the dependence of the enterprise on the unreliability of individual suppliers of raw materials, materials and components.

Risk insurance method. This method, unlike the previous ones, does not involve the use of risk management tools, but compensation for full or partial damage due to the occurrence of a risky situation (insured event).

These methods can and should be used in combination.

On fig. 5.2 presents a generalized scheme of entrepreneurial risks by the nature of their occurrence (risks are divided here into external and internal in terms of the approach to risk management).

Essence, types and role of risks in the system of economic security.

Risk assessment.

Risk management methods.

In studying the first question, understand that the inherent uncertainty of an economic system means that every economic agent must act to reduce the uncertainty and the likelihood of danger occurring.

And sometimes you have to act at random and with great risk. Risk refers to the course of action associated with danger in order to avoid even greater danger. When the danger is measurable (logical or mathematical), the risk is reduced. Thus, risk is a method of action of an economic entity in conditions of uncertainty and unpredictability of events, aimed at meeting needs.

Please note that risk acts as a relationship between a person's conscious purposeful activity and the circumstances in which he acts. In addition, risk reflects a certain set of socio-economic ties, relationships, actions that arise in society as a result of the perception of danger, people's assessments of it and the need to act in order to reduce the danger or its negative consequences.

Expand the essence of risk as an economic category that expresses the diverse socio-economic relations that arise between people, between man and nature, between man and society in the process of producing one's life under conditions of uncertainty.

Next, consider the classification of risks, which is the combination of risks into specific groups according to certain criteria. Science-based risk classification allows you to determine the place of risk in the overall system and creates an opportunity for the effective application of risk management methods and techniques.

causes of occurrence (subjective, objective);

functional types and areas (financial, industrial, commercial, etc.);

scale (local, sectoral, regional, national);

sphere of origin (external, internal);

diversification opportunities (systematic, specific);

degree of admissibility (minimum, increased, critical, unacceptable).

In the conclusion of the first question, understand that, depending on the result, the risks are divided into two groups:

pure risks, meaning the possibility of obtaining a negative or zero result (natural-climatic, political, commercial);

speculative risks expressing the possibility of obtaining both positive and negative results (financial, investment, innovative).

In the second question, study the methods of risk analysis and assessment. Risk analysis consists of two mutually complementary types: qualitative and quantitative.

Qualitative risk analysis serves to identify factors and potential areas of risk. Quantitative risk analysis is a numerical determination of the size of the risk and its consequences.

In the third question, explore risk management practices, which include:

risk prevention;

avoidance of risk;

impact on the source of risk;

reduction of time spent in hazardous areas;

risk acceptance;

reducing risky behavior;

reduction of potential losses;

reduction of actual losses;

distribution of risk among different agents;

unbundling of risk;

insurance risk transfer;

non-insurance risk transfer;

financial engineering.

Risk prevention consists in studying each type of risk in advance and taking measures to prevent events that cause risk and loss.

Risk avoidance implies avoiding activities that can produce risks on a large scale.

Reducing the time spent in dangerous areas is achieved by reducing routes, access control, speeding up transactions, etc.

The reduction in the amount of actual losses is ensured by activities to eliminate the consequences of risks.

Risk downscaling is diversification as the division of risk over time or stages.