Introduction

Among the main problems of the Russian economy, many economists single out the shortage of funds at enterprises for their current, financial and investment activities. Upon closer examination of this problem, it turns out that one of the reasons for this deficit is, as a rule, the low efficiency of attracting and using financial resources, the limited nature of the financial instruments, technologies and mechanisms used in this case.

The rational formation of cash flows contributes to the rhythm of the operating cycle of the enterprise and ensures the growth of production volumes and product sales. At the same time, any violation of payment discipline adversely affects the formation of inventories of raw materials and materials, the level of labor productivity, the sale of finished products, the position of the enterprise in the market, etc. Even for enterprises that successfully operate in the market and generate a sufficient amount of profit, insolvency can occur as a result of the imbalance of various types of cash flows over time.

Estimating the cash flow of the enterprise for the reporting period, as well as planning cash flows for the future, is the most important addition to the analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise and performs the following tasks:

Determining the volume and sources of funds received by the enterprise;

Identification of the main directions of use of funds;

Assessment of the sufficiency of the enterprise's own funds for investment activities;

Determination of the reasons for the discrepancy between the amount of profit received and the actual availability of funds.

Cash flow management is an important factor in accelerating the capital turnover of an enterprise. This is due to a reduction in the duration of the operating cycle, a more economical use of own funds and a decrease in the need for borrowed sources of funds. Consequently, the efficiency of the enterprise depends entirely on the organization of the cash flow management system. This system is created to ensure the implementation of short-term and strategic plans of the enterprise, maintaining solvency and financial stability, more rational use of its assets and sources of financing, as well as minimizing the cost of financing business activities.

The purpose of this work is to define the concept of cash flow, its classification and identification of the principles of cash flow management, disclosure of the concept of cash flow analysis and methods for evaluating their evaluation.

The final chapter is devoted to the issue of cash flow optimization, as one of the most important and complex stages of enterprise cash flow management.

Chapter I. Theoretical foundations of cash flow management

The cash flow of an enterprise is a set of time-distributed receipts and payments of cash generated by its economic activities.

In domestic and foreign sources, this category is interpreted differently. So, according to the American scientist L.A. Bernstein, “the term “cash flows” (in its literal sense) is meaningless by itself, without an appropriate interpretation.” A company can experience cash inflows (there are cash inflows) and it can experience cash outflows (there are cash outflows). Moreover, these cash inflows and outflows can relate to various types of activities - industrial, financial or investment. It is possible to distinguish between cash inflows and outflows for each of these activities, as well as for all activities of the enterprise in the aggregate. These differences are best attributed to net cash inflows or net cash outflows. Thus, a net cash inflow would correspond to an increase in cash balances over a given period, while a net outflow would be associated with a decrease in cash balances during the reporting period. Most of the authors, when referring to cash flows, mean cash generated as a result of economic activity.

Another American scholar, J. K. Van Horn, believes that "the cash flow of a firm is a continuous process." The firm's assets represent the net use of cash, while the liabilities represent net sources. The amount of cash fluctuates over time depending on sales volume, collection of receivables, capital expenditures and financing.

In the West, scientists interpret this category as "Cash-Flow" (cash flow). In their opinion, Cash-Flow is equal to the sum of the annual surplus, depreciation and contributions to the pension fund.

Often planned dividend payments are subtracted from Cash-Flow to move from possible internal funding to actual. Depreciation and pension fund contributions reduce domestic funding opportunities, although they occur without a corresponding cash outflow. In fact, these funds are at the disposal of the enterprise and can be used for financing. Therefore, Cash-Flow can be many times greater than the annual surplus. Cash-Flow reflects the actual volumes of internal financing. With the help of Cash-Flow, an enterprise can determine its current and future capital requirements.

In the activity of any enterprise, the availability of funds and their movement are extremely important. No enterprise can carry out its activities without cash flows: on the one hand, for the production of products or the provision of services, it is necessary to purchase raw materials, materials, hire workers, etc., and this causes the outflow of funds, on the other hand, for the products sold or services rendered, the enterprise receives cash. In addition, the company needs funds to pay taxes to the budget, pay general and administrative expenses, pay dividends to its shareholders, replenish or upgrade the equipment fleet, and so on. Cash flow management includes calculation of the financial cycle (in days), cash flow analysis, its forecasting, determination of the optimal level of cash, cash budgeting, etc. The importance of this type of assets as cash, according to D. Keynes, is determined by three main reasons:

· routine- cash is used to perform current operations; since there is always a time lag between incoming and outgoing cash flows, the company is forced to constantly keep free cash on the current account;

· precaution- the activity of the enterprise is not strictly predetermined, therefore, funds are needed for unforeseen payments;

· speculation- funds are needed for speculative reasons, since there is always a possibility that an unexpected opportunity for profitable investment will present itself.

The concept of "cash flow of the enterprise" is aggregated, including in its composition numerous types of these flows that serve economic activities. In order to ensure effective targeted management of cash flows, they require a certain classification.

Consider the most common classification of cash flows.

1. According to the scale of servicing the economic process, the following types of cash flows are distinguished:

- cash flow for the enterprise as a whole. This is the most aggregated type of cash flow, which accumulates all types of cash flows that serve the business process of the enterprise as a whole;

- cash flow for individual structural units(responsibility centers) of the enterprise. Such differentiation of the cash flow of the enterprise defines it as an independent object of management in the system of organizational and economic construction of the enterprise;

- cash flow for individual business transactions. In the system of the economic process of the enterprise, this type of cash flow should be considered as the primary object of independent management.

2. By types of economic activity, in accordance with the international accounting standard, the following types of cash flows are distinguished:

- Cash flows from operating activities.

The main directions of inflow and outflow of cash from core activities

- cash flows from investment activities.

The main directions of inflow and outflow of funds from investment activities

- cash flows from financial activities.

Main areas of cash inflow and outflow from financial activities

3. In the direction of cash flow, they allocate. Two main types of cash flows:

- positive cash flows, characterizing the totality of cash inflows to the enterprise from all types of business transactions. Also, along with positive cash flows, the term “cash inflow” is used;

- negative cash flows, characterizing the totality of cash payments to the enterprise in the process of carrying out all types of its business operations (as an analogue of this term, “cash outflow” is used).

Characterizing these types of cash flows, you should pay attention to the high degree of their relationship. The lack of volume in time of one of these flows causes a subsequent reduction in the volumes of another type of these flows. Therefore, in the enterprise cash flow management system, both of these types of cash flows are a single object of financial management.

4. According to the volume calculation method, the following types of enterprise cash flows are distinguished:

- gross cash flow. It characterizes the totality of receipts or expenditures of funds in the period under consideration in the reserve of its individual intervals;

- Net cash flow. It characterizes the difference between positive and negative cash flow (between the receipt and expenditure of funds) in the period under consideration in the context of its individual intervals. Net cash flow is the most important result of the financial activity of the enterprise, which largely determines the financial balance and types of increase in its market value.

The calculation of the net cash flow for the enterprise as a whole, its individual structural divisions (responsibility centers), various types of economic activities or individual business transactions is carried out according to the following formula:

NDP \u003d MDP - ODP,

where NPV - the amount of net cash flow in the period under review;

RAP - the amount of positive cash flow (cash receipts) in the period under review;

ODP - the amount of negative cash flow (expenditure of funds) in the period under consideration.

5. According to the level of volume sufficiency, the following types of cash flows of the enterprise are distinguished:

- excess cash flow. It characterizes such a cash flow, in which the receipt of funds significantly exceeds the real need of the enterprise and their purposeful spending.

- deficient cash flow. It characterizes such a cash flow, in which the cash flow is significantly lower than the real needs of the enterprise in purposefulness. Even with a positive value of the amount of net cash flow, it can be characterized as a deficit if this amount does not meet the planned need for the divergence of funds in all the envisaged areas of the enterprise's economic activity. The negative value of the amount of net cash flow automatically makes this flow scarce.

6. According to the method of evaluation in time, the following types of cash flow are distinguished:

- real cash flow. It characterizes the cash flow of the enterprise as a single comparable value, reduced in value to the current point in time;

- future cash flow. It characterizes the cash flow of an enterprise as a single comparable value, reduced in value to a specific future point in time.

7. According to the continuity of formation in the period under review, the following types of cash flows of the enterprise are distinguished:

- regular cash flow. It characterizes the flow of receipts or expenditures of funds for individual business transactions (cash flows of the same type), which in the period under review are carried out constantly at separate intervals of this period.

- discrete cash flow. It characterizes the receipts and expenditures of funds associated with the implementation of individual monetary transactions of the enterprise in the period under review.

8. According to the stability of time intervals of formation, regular cash flows are characterized by the following form:

Regular cash flow with uniform time intervals within the period under review. Such a cash flow of receipt or expenditure of funds is in the nature of annuities:

Regular cash flow with uneven time intervals within the period under review.

The considered classification allows more purposefully to carry out accounting, analysis and planning of cash flows of various types in the enterprise.

The process of managing the cash flows of an enterprise is based on certain principles, the main of which are:

1. The principle of informative reliability. Like every control system, cash flow management of an enterprise must be provided with the necessary information base. The creation of such an information base presents certain difficulties, since there is no direct financial reporting based on uniform methodological principles of accounting. Certain international standards for the formation of such reporting began to be developed only in 1971 and, according to many experts, are still far from complete (although the general parameters of such standards have already been approved, they allow for variability in the methods for determining individual indicators of the adopted reporting system). Differences in accounting methods in our country from those accepted in international practice further complicate the task of forming a reliable information base for managing the enterprise's cash flows. Under these conditions, ensuring the principle of informative reliability is associated with the implementation of complex calculations that require the unification of methodological approaches.

2. The principle of ensuring balance. Enterprise cash flow management deals with many of their types and varieties, considered in the process of their classification. Their subordination to the common goals and objectives of management requires balancing the cash flows of the enterprise by types, volumes, time intervals and other essential characteristics. The implementation of this principle is connected with the optimization of the company's cash flows in the process of managing them.

3. The principle of ensuring efficiency. The cash flows of the enterprise are characterized by a significant unevenness in the receipt and expenditure of funds in the context of individual time intervals, which leads to the formation of significant amounts of temporarily free cash assets of the enterprise. In essence, these temporarily free cash balances are in the nature of non-productive assets (until they are used in the economic process), which lose their value over time, from inflation and for other reasons. The implementation of the principle of efficiency in the process of managing cash flows is to ensure their effective use by making financial investments of the enterprise.

4. The principle of providing liquidity. The high unevenness of certain types of cash flows generates a temporary shortage of funds of the enterprise, which adversely affects the level of its solvency. Therefore, in the process of managing cash flows, it is necessary to ensure a sufficient level of their liquidity throughout the entire period under review. The implementation of this principle is ensured by appropriate synchronization of positive and negative cash flows in the context of each time interval of the period under consideration.

Taking into account the considered principles, a specific process of managing the cash flows of an enterprise is organized.

The main goal of cash flow management is to ensure the financial balance of the enterprise in the process of its development by balancing the volume of receipts and expenditures of funds and their synchronization in time.

The basis of management is the availability of operational and reliable accounting information, formed on the basis of accounting and management accounting. The composition of such information is very diverse: the movement of funds in the accounts and cash of the enterprise, receivables and payables of the enterprise, budgets for tax payments, schedules for issuing and repaying loans, interest payments, budgets for upcoming purchases requiring advance payment, and much more. The information itself comes from various sources, its collection and systematization must be debugged with particular care, since delays and errors in providing information can lead to serious consequences for the entire company as a whole. At the same time, each enterprise independently determines the format for providing information, the frequency of collecting information, and the workflow scheme.

But the main role in managing cash flows is given to ensuring their balance in terms of types, volumes, time intervals and other essential characteristics. To successfully solve this problem, it is necessary to introduce planning, accounting, analysis and control systems at the enterprise. After all, planning the economic activity of an enterprise in general and cash flow in particular significantly increases the efficiency of cash flow management, which leads to:

¾ reduction of the current needs of the enterprise in them based on an increase in the turnover of cash assets and receivables, as well as the choice of a rational structure of cash flows;

¾ effective use of temporarily free cash (including insurance balances) by making financial investments of the enterprise.

¾ ensuring a surplus of funds and the necessary solvency of the enterprise in the current period by synchronizing positive and negative cash flows in the context of each time interval.

Thus, cash flow management is the most important element of the financial policy of the enterprise; it permeates the entire management system of the enterprise. The importance and importance of cash flow management in an enterprise can hardly be overestimated, since not only the stability of the enterprise in a specific period of time, but also the ability to further develop, achieve financial success in the long term depends on its quality and efficiency.

Chapter II . Fundamentals of cash flow analysis

The main purpose of cash flow analysis is to identify the causes of a shortage or excess of funds, determining the sources of their receipt and directions of spending to control the current liquidity and solvency of the enterprise. These parameters are directly dependent on the real cash flow in the form of a flow of cash receipts and payments reflected in the accounts of the balance sheet.

Therefore, the cash flow analysis complements the methodology for assessing solvency and liquidity and makes it possible to realistically assess the financial and economic condition of the enterprise.

The main source of information for cash flow analysis is the Statement of Cash Flows (hereinafter referred to as ODDS).

Currently, there are two main approaches to determining the amount of net cash flow from current activities (hereinafter - NCF). In foreign practice, this indicator is widely known as Cash Flow from Operation - or, in short, CFFO. The first of these is the calculation of NPV from the accounts of the organization, when data on the turnover in cash accounts are used and data on financial reporting forms (balance sheet and income statement) are not involved. The second approach is, on the contrary, to involve such financial forms for the calculation of NPV. Therefore, in the first case, it is appropriate to talk about the primary nature of the calculation of the NPV, and in the second - about the derivative (secondary). At the same time, in the practice of cash flow analysis, two main algorithms for calculating NPV are used - based on the balance sheet and the income statement. Under the first, NPV is determined by adjusting income statement items, including sales and cost of sales, for changes during the period in inventories, short-term receivables and payables, and other non-monetary items. Therefore, such a method should be called direct derivative.

In accordance with the second algorithm, when calculating the net profit (loss), the amount of net profit (loss) is adjusted for the amount of non-monetary transactions associated with the disposal of long-term assets, and for the amount of change in current assets and current liabilities. This method is considered to be indirect derivative. Thus, today there are three main methods for calculating the net cash flow from operating activities (NPFC): primary direct, derivative direct and derivative indirect. However, the use of the derivative direct method in Russia is difficult, since the income statement reflects net revenue (cleared from VAT), while in the balance sheet accounts receivable of counterparties include VAT due from buyers.

An analysis of the company's cash flows includes the following steps.

1st stage. Prepare cash flow statement for economic reading.

The purpose of the first stage is to assess the “quality” of the initial data and, above all, the cash flow statement for the following items:

– definition of external and internal users of reporting;

– analysis of the structure of the cash flow statement;

– determination of the composition and value of monetary assets for which cash flows are calculated in the ODDS;

– verification of the completeness of accounting for expenses and income not related to cash flows;

– distribution by type of activity of ambiguously classified flows (for example, those related to the payment and receipt of interest, dividends and taxes).

2nd stage. Economic reading of the cash flow statement in conjunction with other forms of accounting.

The purpose of the second stage is the economic reading of the financial statements for further analysis.

3rd stage. Information analysis.

The purpose of the third stage is a comprehensive assessment of the liquidity and financial balance of the organization, the identification of reserves for increasing the efficiency of using its financial resources. This stage includes a horizontal and vertical analysis of the cash flow statement (with subsequent interpretation of the calculated financial indicators), an assessment of the "quality" of the net cash flow from current activities - NDC; calculation of financial indicators. The classification of financial indicators at this stage is based on the task of satisfying the needs of each group of users of such information (investors, creditors, the state, etc.):

1. Indicators for assessing the "quality" of the CHDPT. They allow to evaluate the possibility of erroneous conclusions when using the value of NPV in the system of financial indicators.

2. Liquidity indicators. Characterize the level of solvency of the organization.

Solvency ratio (1) = (PV NP + Inflow of VA for the period) / Outflow of VA for the period. Solvency Ratio (2) = Inflow of VA for the period / Outflow of VA for the period.

The solvency ratio (1) makes it possible to determine whether the organization will be able to provide for a certain period of payment of funds from the balance of funds in accounts, in cash and their inflows for the same period. This ratio must be greater than 1.

Self-financing interval (1) = (AC + Short-term financial investments + Short-term accounts receivable) / Average daily expenditure of DI.

Average Daily Expenses = (Cost of Sales + Selling Expenses + Management Expenses - Depreciation) / n,

where n = 30 days if the period is a month; n =90 days if the period is a quarter; n = 360 days if the period is a year.

Self-financing interval (2) = (CA+ Short-term financial investments)/ Average daily expenditure of CA. Beaver ratio = (Net income + Depreciation) / Long-term and short-term liabilities.

This indicator is considered a fairly representative indicator of solvency. For prosperous companies, this indicator is in the range of 0.4–0.45.

Cash inflow coverage ratio = (Net income + Depreciation) / short-term liabilities. Interest Coverage = NPV before Interest and Taxes / Amount of Interest Paid.

This ratio allows you to understand how much you can make interest payments at the expense of FDI without prejudice to the fulfillment of obligations to the counterparty to pay interest for the use of its funds. Quite often, the profit in the form No. 2 of the annual reporting exceeds the amount of interest on the loan several times, but the negative NPV does not allow, nevertheless, to cover the financial costs of raising borrowed funds from its own sources.

Self-Funding Potential = NPV / Long-Term Accounts Payable

In order to get an idea of ​​the extent to which an enterprise is able to meet its obligations to capital owners for the payment of dividends based on the achieved financial and economic result for current activities, calculate dividend coverage ratio I for all types of shares:

Dividend coverage ratio I = NPV before dividends and after taxes and interest / Total dividends payable.

This indicator, which is of particular importance for the owners of the capital of the enterprise, can be calculated both for the total amount of dividends paid, and for dividends on certain categories of shares, for example, for ordinary:

Dividend Coverage Ratio II = NPV before and after taxes and interest / amount of dividends payable on common shares.

Dividend coverage indicators are calculated on the basis of the NPV determined according to the data of the enterprise's annual report. If its dividend policy is stable, current data on dividends paid can be used to calculate these indicators. Otherwise, you need to proceed from the predicted data on future dividend payments.

3. Investment indicators. They characterize the organization's ability to cover its investment without attracting sources of external financing, i.e. degree of internal self-financing.

The dynamics of investment indicators is especially important, since the intensity of capital investments varies from year to year.

Of particular interest is the indicator that characterizes the degree of participation of the FDI in covering the deficit net cash flow from investment activities (NCF):

Cash reinvestment ratio = CHDPI / CHDPT.

If NPI > 0, then this means that the organization made all investments in non-current assets at the expense of disinvestments. In this case, the calculation of the coefficient of reinvestment of funds is not carried out.

In the reporting period, the calculation of the coefficient shows that there is a 100% reinvestment of the NPV.

The multiple excess of the deficit NDI over NDI indicates that, with full use (reinvestment) of funds from current activities, the cash outflow from investment activities was covered mainly by external financing.

The ability of an enterprise to make investments without attracting external sources of financing reflects the indicator of the degree of coverage of investment investments:

The degree of coverage of investment investments \u003d NPV / Total amount of investments.

When the cash inflow from the reduction of previous investments is used to assess the possibilities of financing investment investments, i.e. disinvestment (for example, from the sale of equipment), then you can calculate the degree of coverage of net investments (net investments):

Degree of coverage of net investments (net investments) = NPV / / Net investments

To determine the magnitude of the reduction in investment investments as a source of financing for new investment projects, it is necessary to contrast cash outflows in connection with new investments with cash inflows from the reduction of previous investment investments:

Degree of financing of investments-net = Cash outflows due to new investments / Inflows due to the reduction of previous investments.

4. Indicators of financial policy. By contrasting the sources of funding reflected in the ODS, one can get an idea of ​​​​the financial policy and the relative importance of each such source for the organization. Analyzing the volume and time aspect of the sources of financing used, the subject of analysis draws a conclusion about the position of this organization in the capital market.

If, in the course of the analysis, we compare the internal and external sources of financing reflected in the ODS, we can get an idea of ​​​​the financial policy and the relative importance of each such source for the organization:

The ratio of internal and external funding = NPV (or all domestic financial sources) / Total external funding.

The total amount of external financing is understood as the total inflow of funds as a result of the growth of borrowed capital and equity capital, for example, through an additional issue of shares.

After analyzing the volume and time aspect of the sources of financing used, we can conclude about the position of this organization in the capital market.

In addition to all sources of funds, the analyst can analyze separately the structure of external financing. For this, one of the following indicators is calculated:

Share of own source of external financing in the total amount of external financing = Cash inflow from equity growth / total amount of external financing.

The share of a borrowed source of external financing in the total amount of external financing = Cash inflow due to the growth of debt capital / total amount of external financing .

The ratio of own and borrowed sources of financing = Cash inflow due to the growth of equity capital / Cash inflow due to the growth of borrowed capital.

5. Indicators of profitability. Reflect the efficiency of the organization's capital use.

It is advisable to supplement the traditional analysis of profitability with the calculation of "monetary" indicators of the profitability of all capital and equity. To do this, in the numerator, the amount of income in the form of profit received is adjusted for non-monetary items. In the denominator of such indicators, we used the arithmetic mean of certain types of assets and liabilities; in the numerator - the size of the CHDPT.

Return on total capital = NPV ∙ 100 / Value of all assets.

Of particular interest to the analyst is the return on equity indicator, which characterizes how many percent of the equity the company has generated over the analyzed period due to net cash inflow from current activities:

Return on equity = NPV ∙ 100 / Equity.

6. Evaluation of the "quality" of sales proceeds allows you to identify the degree of discrepancy between the amount of "cash" revenue (on payment) and received according to accounting data.

Indicator of "quality" of proceeds from the sale of goods (works, services) = Cash inflows in the form of proceeds from the sale of goods / Proceeds from the sale of goods, including VAT.

The considered system of indicators allows you to expand the traditional set of financial ratios, while focusing on the analysis of the organization's cash flows.

2.2. Basic methods for estimating cash flow

A) Estimation of cash flow by direct method

The direct method is based on the analysis of cash flows in the accounts of the enterprise:

Allows you to show the main sources of inflow and direction of outflow of funds.

It makes it possible to draw operational conclusions regarding the sufficiency of funds for payments on current obligations.

Establishes the relationship between sales and cash receipts for the reporting period.

In operational management, the direct method can be used to control the process of generating profits and draw conclusions regarding the sufficiency of funds for payments on current obligations.

The disadvantage of this method is that it does not reveal the relationship between the obtained financial result and the change in the absolute amount of the company's cash. In addition, this method is more time consuming than other methods of estimating cash flow, and the reporting obtained using it is less useful.

It is possible to estimate all directions of receipt (inflows) and disposal (outflows) of funds of the enterprise by the direct method using table 1 (see Appendix 1).

It must be remembered that the total cash flow must be equal to the difference between the opening and closing cash balances for the period.

The general scheme for constructing a report on cash flows from operating activities by the direct method is presented in the scheme given in Appendix 1. Table 1.

One of the most important and difficult stages of enterprise cash flow management is their optimization. It also acts as the most important regulator of the intensity of cash flows and the size of the average balance of the company's cash assets.

The balance of monetary assets;

The results of the analysis are used to identify reserves for optimizing the company's cash flows and planning them for the coming period.

Optimization of cash flows of the enterprise. Such optimization is one of the most important functions of cash flow management aimed at improving their efficiency in the coming period. The most important tasks to be solved during this stage of cash flow management are:

Identification and implementation of reserves, allowing to reduce the dependence of the enterprise on external sources of raising funds;

Ensuring a more complete balance of positive and negative cash flows in time and volume; ensuring a closer relationship of cash flows by type of economic activity of the enterprise;

Increasing the amount and quality of the net cash flow generated by the economic activity of the enterprise.

Planning the cash flows of the enterprise in the context of their various types.

Such planning is predictive in nature due to the uncertainty of a number of its initial prerequisites. Therefore, cash flow planning is carried out in the form of multivariate planned calculations of these indicators under various scenarios for the development of initial factors (optimistic, realistic, pessimistic)

Ensuring effective control of the company's cash flows.

The object of such control are:

Fulfillment of the established plan targets for the formation of the volume of funds and their spending in the envisaged areas;

Uniformity of formation of cash flows in time;

Liquidity of cash flows and their efficiency.

These indicators are controlled in the process of monitoring the current financial activities of the enterprise.

Optimization of cash flows is the process of choosing the best forms of their organization in the enterprise, taking into account the conditions and characteristics of the implementation of its economic activities.

The main goals of optimizing the cash flows of an enterprise are:

Ensuring the balance of cash flows;

Ensuring the synchronism of the formation of cash flows in time;

Ensuring the growth of the company's net cash flow.

The main objects of optimization are:

Positive cash flow;

Negative cash flow;

The balance of monetary assets;

Net cash flow.

The most important prerequisite for the implementation of cash flow optimization is the study of factors affecting their volume and the nature of formation over time. These factors can be divided into external and internal. The system of factors is presented later in the text.

The nature of the influence of the considered factors is used in the process of optimizing the cash flows of the enterprise.

The basis for optimizing the cash flows of an enterprise is to ensure a balance between the volumes of their positive and negative types. The results of economic activity of the enterprise are negatively affected by both scarce and excess cash flows. The negative consequences of a deficit cash flow are manifested in a decrease in the liquidity and solvency of an enterprise, an increase in overdue accounts payable to suppliers of raw materials and materials, an increase in the share of overdue debts on financial loans received, delays in paying wages (with a corresponding decrease in the level of personnel productivity), an increase in the duration of the financial cycle , and, ultimately, in reducing the profitability of the use of equity capital and assets of the enterprise.

The negative consequences of excess cash flow are manifested in the loss of the real value of temporarily unused funds from inflation, the loss of potential income from the unused part of monetary assets in the field of their short-term investment, which ultimately also negatively affects the level of return on assets and equity of the enterprise.

Methods for optimizing the scarce cash flow depend on the nature of this scarcity - short-term or long-term.

The balance of the deficit cash flow in the short term is achieved by using the "System of acceleration - deceleration of the payment turnover" (or "System of Leeds and Legs"). The essence of this system is to develop organizational measures at the enterprise to accelerate the attraction of funds and slow down their payments.

Accelerating the attraction of funds in the short term can be achieved through the following activities:

Factors affecting the cash flow of an enterprise

Increasing the amount of price discounts for cash on products sold to customers;

Providing partial or full prepayment for manufactured products that are in high demand in the market;

Reducing the terms for providing a commodity (commercial) loan to buyers;

Acceleration of collection of overdue receivables;

Use of modern forms of refinancing accounts receivable - bills of exchange, factoring, forfeiting;

Accelerating the collection of payment documents of product buyers (time spent on the road, during the registration process, in the process of crediting money to a current account, etc.).

The slowdown in cash payments in the short term can be achieved through the following measures:

Using a float to slow down the collection of your own payment documents;

Increases in agreement with suppliers of the terms for granting a commodity (commercial) loan to an enterprise:

Replacement of the acquisition of long-term assets requiring renewal with their lease (leasing);

Restructuring the portfolio of received financial loans by transferring their short-term types into long-term ones.

It should be noted that the System of Accelerating and Slowing the Payment Turnover, by solving the problem of balancing the volume of scarce cash flow in the short term (and, accordingly, increasing the level of absolute solvency of the enterprise), creates certain problems of increasing the scarcity of this flow in subsequent periods. Therefore, in parallel with the use of the mechanism of this system, measures should be developed to ensure the balance of the deficit cash flow in the long run.

The growth of positive cash flow in the long run can be achieved through the following activities:

Attracting strategic investors to increase equity capital;

Additional issue of shares;

Attracting long-term financial loans;

Sale of a part (or the entire volume) of financial investment instruments;

Sale (or lease) of unused types of fixed assets.

Reducing the volume of negative cash flow in the long run can be achieved through the following measures:

Reducing the volume and composition of real investment programs;

Refusal of financial investment:

Reducing the amount of fixed costs of the enterprise.

Methods for optimizing the excess cash flow of an enterprise are associated with ensuring the growth of its investment activity. In the system of these methods can be used:

Increasing the volume of expanded reproduction of operating non-current assets;

Acceleration of the period of development of real investment projects and the beginning of their implementation;

Implementation of regional diversification of the operating activities of the enterprise;

Active formation of a portfolio of financial investments;

Early repayment of long-term financial loans.

In the system of optimizing the cash flows of an enterprise, an important place belongs to their balance in time. In the process of such optimization, two main methods are used - alignment and synchronization.

Equalization of cash flows is aimed at smoothing their volumes in the context of individual intervals of the period under consideration. This optimization method eliminates, to a certain extent, seasonal and cyclical differences in the formation of cash flows (both positive and negative), while simultaneously optimizing the average cash balances and increasing the level of absolute liquidity. The results of this method of optimizing cash flows over time are evaluated using the standard deviation or coefficient of variation, which should decrease during the optimization process.

The results of this method of optimizing cash flows over time are evaluated using the correlation coefficient, which should tend to the value "+1" during the optimization process.

The final stage of optimization is to provide conditions for maximizing the net cash flow of the enterprise. The growth of net cash flow ensures an increase in the pace of economic development of the enterprise on the principles of self-financing, reduces the dependence of this development on external sources of formation of financial resources, and ensures an increase in the market value of the enterprise.

An increase in the amount of net cash flow of an enterprise can be achieved through the implementation of the following main measures:

Reducing the amount of fixed, variable costs;

Implementation of an effective tax policy that ensures a reduction in the level of total tax payments;

Implementation of an effective pricing policy that ensures an increase in the level of profitability of operating activities;

Using the method of accelerated depreciation of fixed assets;

Reducing the amortization period of intangible assets used by the enterprise;

Sale of unused types of fixed assets and intangible assets;

Strengthening claims work in order to fully and timely collect penalties.

The results of optimizing the company's cash flows are reflected in the system of plans for the formation and use of funds in the coming period.

Conclusion

Cash flow management of an enterprise is an important part of the overall system for managing its financial activities. It allows you to solve various problems of financial management and is subordinated to its main goal.

The object of management in the cash flow management system is the cash flows of the enterprise associated with the implementation of various economic and financial transactions, and the subject of management is the financial service, the composition and number of which depends on the size, structure of the enterprise, the number of operations, activities and other factors.

The cash flow of an enterprise is understood as a set of time-distributed receipts and payments of cash generated by its economic activities.

The main source of information for cash flow analysis is the Statement of Cash Flows. Analysis of the cash flow statement allows you to significantly deepen and adjust the conclusions regarding the liquidity and solvency of the organization, its future financial potential, previously obtained on the basis of static indicators in the course of traditional financial analysis. In this regard, the topic of cash flow analysis and directions for its optimization has recently become more and more relevant.

Optimization of cash flows is the process of choosing the best forms of their organization in the enterprise, taking into account the conditions and characteristics of the implementation of its economic activities. The basis for optimizing the payment turnover of an enterprise is to ensure a balance between the volumes of its positive and negative cash flows over time.

The main goals of optimizing the cash flows of an enterprise are:

Ensuring the synchronism of the formation of cash flows in time;

Ensuring the growth of the company's net cash flow.

The main objects of optimization are:

Positive cash flow;

Negative cash flow;

The balance of monetary assets;

Net cash flow.

The characteristics of the listed flows were also presented in the work, along with an attempt to identify the positive and negative qualities of these flows.

The systematization of an enterprise's activities into three types (current, investment and financial) is very important for the practice of Russia, since a favorable (close to zero) total cash flow can be achieved by eliminating or covering the negative cash flow from current activities with cash inflows from sale of assets or attraction of short-term bank loans. In this case, the amount of cash flow hides the real unprofitability of the enterprise.

The cash flow management process begins with an analysis of cash flows for the base and reporting periods. Such an analysis allows you to establish where the company generates cash, and where it is spent.

Based on the results of the analysis, the subject of management must make a decision aimed at correcting the cash flow. The financial position of the enterprise depends on the results of the relevant activities, which is why the topic of cash flow analysis is one of the most burning ones.

Bibliography

1.Methodological provisions for assessing the financial condition of enterprises and establishing an unsatisfactory balance sheet structure. Approved by order of the Federal Office for Insolvency (Bankruptcy) dated 12.08.94 No. 31-r. // Computer system "Consultant Plus".

2. Bendikov M.A. Improving the diagnostics of the financial condition of an industrial enterprise. / M.A. Bendikov, E.V. Jamai. // Management in Russia and abroad. - No. 5. - 2005. - p. 84-91.

3. Bernstein L.A. Analysis of financial statements: theory, practice and interpretation: Per. from English / L.A. Bernstein. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2001. - p. 458.

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9. Efimova

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13. Kovalev V.V. Financial management. / V.V. Kovalev. – M.: FBK Press, 2001. – 171 p.

14. Lyubushkin N.P. Economic analysis: theory and practice / N.P. Lyubushkin // Economic analysis. - No. 8 (41) - 2005. - p. 16.

15. Prodchenko I.A. Theoretical foundations of financial management: a training course / I.A. Prodchenko. – M.: MIEMP, 2007. – p. 138.

16. Khakhonova N.N., Problems of evaluation and measurement of cash flows / N.N. Khakhonova // Economic analysis: theory and practice. - 2003 - No. 10 - pp. 36 - 41.

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18. http://www.finansy.ru/st/post_1284986836.html

19. http://ww.finansy.ru/st/post_1285650370.html

Applications

Attachment 1

Table 1. Statement of cash flows (direct method)

Name of account operation	50	51	52	Other	Total
Cash balance at the beginning of the period
+	Operating cash flow
Income
Proceeds from the sale of products, works and services (62)
Advances received from buyers (64)
Settlements with accountable persons (71)
Other income (67, 68, 69, 70, 80, 81)
Consumption
Payment for raw materials and supplies (60)
Wages of workers and employees (70)
Deductions to the budget and off-budget funds (67, 68)
Other expenses (20, 23, 25, 26, 71, 80, 81)
+	Cash flow from investing activities
Income
Sale of long-term assets (08, 47, 48)
Consumption
Long-term investments and investments (04, 06, 08, 58)
+	Cash flow from financing activities
Income
Receipt of credits and loans (90, 92, 94, 95)
Issue of shares (75)
Consumption
Return of credits and loans (90, 92, 94, 95)
Share buyback (75)
=	Cumulative cash flow across all activities
Cash balance at the end of the period

Appendix 2

Table 2. Statement of cash flows (indirect method)

+	Primary activity	Sum
→	Profit (net of taxes) Use of profit (social sphere)	Net profit = Profit of the reporting year excluding income tax
+	Depreciation deductions	Depreciation deductions are added to the amount of net profit because. they did not generate cash outflows
+	Change in the amount of current assets Accounts receivable Stocks Other current assets	An increase in the amount of current assets means that cash is reduced due to an increase in inventories and receivables
+	Change in the amount of current liabilities (excluding bank loans) Accounts payable Other current liabilities	An increase in current liabilities causes an increase in cash by providing a deferred payment from creditors, receiving advances from buyers
+	Investment activities
→	Change in the amount of long-term assets Fixed assets and intangible assets Capital investments in progress Long-term financial investments Other noncurrent assets	An increase in the amount of long-term assets means a decrease in cash due to investment in long-term assets. Realization of long-term assets increases cash
+	Financial activities
+	Change in the amount owed Short-term credits and loans Long-term credits and loans	An increase (decrease) in debt indicates an increase (decrease) in cash by attracting (repaying) loans
+	Change in equity authorized capital Earmarked income	An increase in equity through the placement of additional shares means an increase in cash. Repurchase of shares and payment of dividends lead to their reduction
=	Total change in cash	The balance must be equal to the increase (decrease) in the cash balance between two reporting periods

Appendix 3

Table 3 Financial proportions in the balance sheet (matrix method)

Assets	Liabilities
1. Non-mobile means
1.1. Fixed assets and intangible assets	2. Retained earnings, accumulation fund 3. Long-term loans and borrowings (as an exception)
1.2. Capital investments	1. Authorized and additional capital 2. Long-term loans and borrowings 3. Accumulation funds and retained earnings
1.3. Long-term financial investments	1. Authorized and additional capital 3. Long-term loans and borrowings
2. Mobile means
2.1. Stocks and costs	1. Authorized and additional capital (balance) 2. Reserve capital 3. Accumulation funds and retained earnings (balance) 4. Sustainable liabilities 5. Long-term loans and borrowings 6. Short-term loans and borrowings 7. Lenders 8. Consumption funds and reserves
2.2 Debtors	1. Commercial loan debt 2. Short-term loans and borrowings
2.3. Short-term financial investments	1. Reserve capital 2. Lenders 3. Consumption funds and reserves
2.4. Cash	1. Reserve capital 2. Accumulation funds and retained earnings 3. Credits and loans 4. Lenders 5. Consumption funds and reserves

Prodchenko I.A. Theoretical foundations of financial management: a training course / I.A. Prodchenko. – M.: MIEMP, 2007. – p. 38.

Bernstein L.A. Analysis of financial statements: theory, practice and interpretation: Per. from English. (Scientific edition of the translation by Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences I.I. Eliseev) / L.A. Bernstein. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2001. - p. 333.

Dybal S.V. Financial analysis: theory and practice / S.V. Dybal. - St. Petersburg: Business Press, 2009. - p.52.

The basic concept in the income approach is net cash receipts or net cash flows, defined as the difference between the inflow and outflow of cash over a certain period of time.

Using the discounted cash flow method, it is possible to operate in the calculations with either the so-called "cash flow for equity" or "cash flow for all invested capital".

In the valuation of Bitum LLC, a cash flow model for equity was applied. When using this model, the cost of a company's equity capital is calculated. The cash flow for equity is determined as follows:

net income after taxes

Depreciation deductions

Increase in long-term debt

+ (-) decrease (increase) in own working capital

+ (-) decrease (increase) in investments in fixed assets

Reducing long-term debt

___________________________________

Cash flow

Cash flow is calculated on a nominal basis, i.e. at current prices.

The financial cycle of an enterprise is calculated by the formula:

F c \u003d O d.z. + About h. - About k.z.

where Ф c - financial cycle;

About d.z. - turnover of receivables;

About h. - inventory turnover;

About k.z. - turnover of accounts payable.

Since in our case we assume that the company's mutual offsets will be carried out in a timely manner, receivables and payables are mutually repaid. Consequently, the financial cycle will depend on the inventory turnover of the enterprise. Inventory turnover includes the turnover of raw materials and materials, low-value and wearing out goods, finished products, shipped goods, other goods and materials. Inventory turnover also includes the turnover of raw materials, low-value and consumable goods, finished products, shipped goods, other goods and materials. Inventory turnover also includes VAT on purchased items. All this is reflected in lines 210 and 220 of form 1 of the balance sheet of the operating enterprise. From here, the inventory turnover period is calculated by the formula:

where Z cf - the average value of stocks for the initial and final period (line 210 of form 1 of the balance sheet);

VAT avg - the average value of VAT on acquired valuables for the initial and final period (line 220 of form 1 of the balance sheet);

In cf - the average value of revenue for the initial and final period (line 010 of form 2 of the balance sheet);

360 is the number of days in the period.

Calculating according to this formula, we obtain the values ​​of the periods of inventory turnover for 2001, 2002 and 2003. They are 42, 64 and 104 days respectively.

The average inventory turnover period for these three years is:

P ob.z. = (42+64+104)/3 = 70 days

Based on this, we calculate the company's need for working capital (required working capital):

where K tr.ob. – required working capital,

360 is the number of days in the period.

Thus, the increase in working capital will be calculated as a percentage (19.4%) of the difference in sales proceeds between adjacent intervals.

The calculation of the cash flow of the first forecast year takes into account the repayment of the loan.

At the next stage of using the method of discounted future cash flows, the total amount of income that can be received in the post-forecast period is calculated. We calculated the amount of income in the post-forecast period using the Gordon model, which looks like this:

V is the total amount of income in the post-forecast period;

D - cash flow, which may be at the beginning of the third year;

r is the discount rate for equity (0.42);

R is the expected long-term stable growth rate of cash flow, in our case, equal to 5%.

Gordon's model is based on a forecast of stable income in the residual period.

When carrying out the discounting procedure, it is necessary to take into account how cash flows are received over time (at the beginning of each period, at the end of each period, evenly throughout the year).

In our calculations, it is assumed that the company receives income and makes payments evenly throughout the year. Thus, the discounting of cash flows is made for mid-period according to the following formula:

PV is the present value of future earnings;

r is the discount rate;

n is the number of periods.

Ratio analysis is an integral part of cash flow analysis. With its help, the relative indicators characterizing the flows are studied, as well as the efficiency ratios for the use of the organization's funds are calculated.

First of all, the coefficient analysis of cash flows gives an idea of ​​the organization's ability to generate the necessary amount of cash inflows from current activities to maintain solvency. To assess the synchronism of the formation of various types of cash flows, the liquidity ratio of cash flows for the year (K liquid) is calculated according to Form No. 4 using the formula:

where RAP TD is the total amount of cash inflows from current activities;

ODP TD - the total amount of funds used for current activities.

As a generalizing indicator, it is proposed to use the coefficient of efficiency of cash flows in the analyzed period (K EFP), which is determined by the formula:

,

where

ODP - cash outflow for the period.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of the use of funds is also carried out using various profitability ratios:

,

where ρ DP is the profitability ratio of positive cash flow for the period;

R P - net profit received for the period;

CAP - positive cash flow for the period.

To calculate the listed coefficients, we will construct table 4.34.

Table 4.34

Ratio analysis of cash flows of Torf-K LLC

The end of the table. 4.34

Net cash flow from operating activities
Positive cash flow
Negative cash flow
Net profit
	PDPtd / ODPtd

The decrease in the liquidity of operating (current) cash flows in Torf-K LLC was characterized by the fact that cash flow from current activities reached 60% of the previous year's level. The decrease in the liquidity of cash flows by almost two times over the analyzed period shows that the growth of cash flows occurs in a volume different from the growth of current liabilities, so the disproportion increases.

In 2008, there was a shortage of means of payment, as a result of which the cash flow efficiency ratio was negative. For each ruble of funds spent, the deficit was 71 kopecks (in 2007, the cash deficit was less - 56 kopecks).

Efficiency in the use of cash is also determined by the profitability ratios of cash. Both in 2007 and 2008 these indicators were negative, and by 2008 the profitability ratio of cash decreased by 17.26%.

Cash flow profitability ratios can be calculated using both the organization's net income and other profit indicators (profit from sales, profit before tax, etc.), and instead of a positive cash flow indicator, a negative cash flow indicator can be used.

An important point in the analysis of cash flows is the assessment of their balance in time, that is, deviations of multidirectional cash flows in separate time intervals. In this case, it is necessary to proceed from the criterion of minimizing possible deviations (fluctuations) in the values ​​of inflow and outflow of funds.

To establish the degree of balance of cash flows for the analyzed period, the correlation coefficient of positive and negative cash flows is used, which is determined by the formula:

.

Moreover, when calculating this coefficient, intermediate calculations are used according to the following formulas:

,

,

,

where r is the correlation coefficient of positive and negative cash flows in the analyzed period;

xi - amount of positive cash flow;

yi - amount of negative cash flow;

x - the average value of cash inflows for the time interval;

y - the average value of the outflow of funds for the time interval; n is the number of time intervals in the analyzed period.

Let's calculate the correlation coefficient according to table 4.31. For the convenience of calculations, the initial data, as well as the necessary intermediate calculated indicators, will be presented in Table 4.35.

Table 4.35

Calculation of indicators for determining the correlation coefficient of cash flows of Torf-K LLC for 2007-2008. (thousand roubles.)

Years, quarters			(Xi-Xcp)	(Yi-Ycp)	(Xi-X)(Yi-Y)	(Xi-X)^2	(Yi-Y)^2
Total 2007
Total 2008

Using the data in Table. 4.35 and the above formulas, we determine the value of the cash flow correlation coefficients for 2 years:

The found value of the correlation coefficients is quite close to unity, which indicates a small spread of fluctuations between the values ​​of positive and negative cash flows. In 2008, there is a greater approximation of the coefficient to one, therefore, in 2008, there is less risk of an insolvency situation (during periods when the outflow of funds exceeds their inflow) and an excess of money supply, indicating a lost profit from the placement of excess funds (during periods when the inflow of funds exceeds funds over their outflow).

When analyzing the funds of an enterprise, it is also necessary to assess the adequacy of funds, which is the main condition for the financial well-being of the organization. The absence of a minimum cash reserve indicates serious financial difficulties. The excess amount of funds leads to the fact that Torf-K LLC may suffer losses associated with inflation, miss the opportunity to profitably place them and receive additional income.

The way to assess the sufficiency of funds is to determine the duration of the period of turnover. For this, the formula is used:

,

where AT- turnover period, in days;

DC- average cash balances;

ndc- turnover of funds for the period;

D- turnaround time (30 days).

For the calculation, internal accounting data of Torf-K LLC on the amount of balances at the beginning and end of the period on cash accounts are used. To calculate the turnover of funds, the credit turnover on accounts 50 "Cashier" and 51 "Settlement accounts" was used.

Table 4.36

Analysis of the duration of the company's cash flow

for 2007-2008

Month	Average cash balances, rub.		Turnover per month, rub.		Turnover period, days
September

From the data in Table. 4.36 it can be seen that the period of cash flow during 2007 ranges from 0.98 to 32.39 days, in 2008 - from 1.65 to 52.41 days. In other words, an average of 17 days a month in 2007, in 2008 - 27 days, passes from the moment money is received to the current account or cash desk of the organization until the moment they are withdrawn. It can be said that the fastest implementation of cash transactions, which are associated with both the purchase and sale of goods, was observed in 2007, since no more than 14 days passed from the moment money was received to the company's accounts until they were withdrawn. When considering transactions by months, it is clear that in June 2007, as well as in February-March 2008, there is a slowdown in cash turnover. The maximum values ​​of turnover periods in June 2007 were 32.39, and in February and March 2008, 52.41 and 51.78, respectively. However, this may indicate a lack of funds from the enterprise, which is very dangerous with a significant amount of accounts payable. Any serious delay in payment can throw the company out of financial equilibrium.

For clarity, fluctuations in cash turnover during 2007-2008. let's build a graph (Fig. 4.15).

Rice. 4.15. Fluctuations in cash turnover for 2007-2008

The turnover period is far from uniform. In 2007, fluctuations in turnover periods are small, reaching an average of 17 days. In 2008, there is a major jump in the change in the periods of cash turnover in February and March on the current account and on hand. Since July 2008, there has been a gradual increase in the turnover period. The conducted analysis showed that the company Torf-K LLC needs further regulation of cash flows in order to optimize cash.

Particular attention in the process of carrying out a coefficient analysis of cash flows is paid to factor analysis, that is, a quantitative measurement of the influence of various objective and subjective factors that have a direct or indirect impact on profitability, the efficiency of using the organization's funds in the analyzed period. Factor analysis (direct and inverse, deterministic and stochastic) is carried out using various techniques for modeling the original two-factor multiple systems (expansion, lengthening, reduction, optimization, etc.).

One of the stages of factor analysis of cash flows is the calculation of the influence of factors on the change in the value of the profitability ratio of positive cash flow for current activities (
) determined by the formula:

,

where - revenue from sales;

RAP TD - positive cash flow from current activities.

Modeling this profitability ratio of cash inflow, taken as the initial factor system, using the methods of expansion, lengthening and reduction, you can get the final six-factor system:

y = ×x 5 ×x 6 ×x 7 ×x8:

where - revenue from sales;

RAP TD - positive cash flow for current activities;

N - sales revenue;

- profitability of sales;

- the average value of the balances of current assets;

- the average value of the balances of short-term financial obligations;

– net cash flow from current activities for the period;

M - material costs for the period;

- labor costs for the period, taking into account social contributions;

A M - expenses in connection with the depreciation of property for the period;

Pr - other expenses for ordinary activities for the period;

- material consumption of sales (x 1);

- salary intensity of sales (x 2);

- depreciation capacity of sales (x 3);

- other consumption of sales (x 4);

- turnover ratio of current assets (x 5);

- current assets coverage ratio of short-term financial obligations (current liquidity) (x 6);

- coefficient of generation of net cash flow from current activities by borrowed funds (x 7);

- the share of net cash flow in the total volume of positive cash flow from current activities (х 8).

The initial data and the calculation of the influence of eight factors (x 1, x 2, x 3, x 4, x 5, x 6, x 7, x 8) on the effective indicator, produced by the method of chain substitutions, are presented in Table. 4.37.

Table 4.37

Calculation of the influence of factors on the profitability of the positive cash flow of Torf-K LLC for 2007-2008.

№ p/p	Indicators	Conventions	2007	2008	Abs. change
	Sales revenue, rub.
	Profit from sales, rub.
	Positive cash flow from current activities, rub.
	The average value of balances of current assets, rub.
	Average value of short-term debt obligations
	Net cash flow from current activities, rub.
	Material expenses, rub.
	Labor costs including social contributions for the period, rub.
	Expenses in connection with depreciation of property, rub.
	Other expenses for ordinary activities, rub.
	material intensity of sales, %
	Salary intensity of sales, %
	Depreciation capacity of sales, %
	Other sales consumption, %
	Current assets turnover ratio
	Coverage ratio of current assets of short-term monetary liabilities	OA/ /KO, x 6
	Net cash flow generation ratio from borrowed funds from current activities	KO/ NDPtd, x

The end of the table. 4.37

	Share of net cash flow in total positive cash flow from operating activities	ChDPtd/ /PDPtd, x 8
	Profitability ratio of positive cash flow for current activities, %	Ρpdp PN , y
	Influence of factors on the change in profitability of positive cash flow from current activities - total, %	Ρpdp PN , y
	Including: material consumption of sales
	wage intensity
	depreciation capacity sales
	other sales costs
	turnover ratio of current assets
	coverage ratio of current assets of short-term liabilities
	generation ratio of net cash flow from current activities by borrowed funds
	positive cash flow from current activities

Calculation of the influence of factors on the change in the profitability of a positive cash flow for the current activities of Torf-K LLC in 2008:

The cumulative influence of factors on the change in the profitability of positive cash flow from current activities:

Influence of material intensity of sales:

The impact of the wage intensity of sales:

Impact of depreciation sales capacity:

Impact of other sales costs:

Influence of the turnover ratio of current assets:

Influence of the coverage ratio of current assets of short-term monetary liabilities:

Influence of the net cash flow generation ratio for current activities by borrowed funds:

The impact of the share of net cash flow in the total volume of positive cash flow from current activities:

The total amount of influence of factors on the performance indicator is:

4,1828-4,0567+0,1120+0,0155-0,1977-14,2335+14,1520-0,3014 = -0,3271%,

This value corresponds to the total absolute increase in the effective profitability indicator of positive cash flow from current activities.

As can be seen from the calculations, the influence of the factors included in the analytical model was both positive and negative. Among the factors that had the greatest positive impact on the growth of the profitability of positive cash flow from current activities in 2008 compared to 2007 are: a decrease in material consumption, depreciation capacity and other consumption intensity (4.1828%, 0.1120% and 0.0155 %, respectively) and the acceleration of net cash flow generation by borrowed funds (14.1520%).

At the same time, there was a negative impact of factors: an increase in wage intensity by 4.0567%, a decrease in the rate of current assets (-0.1977%), a decrease in total liquidity (-14.2335%), as well as a decrease in the share of net cash flow in the current activities in the total amount of cash receipts (-0.3014%).

Elimination of the impact of the identified negative factors in the activities of Torf-K LLC will allow the organization to increase the profitability of the cash flow and the efficiency of economic activity in general.

A number of simple ratios are used to estimate cash flows and specialized complex indicators, which include the following.

1. Momentary and interval multipliers, reflecting the financial performance of the enterprise and defined as the ratio of the share price of the enterprise to a number of final performance indicators at a particular point in time or over a period. Moment indicators include, for example:

The ratio of price and gross income;

The ratio of price and profit before tax;

Price-to-net profit ratio;

The ratio of price and book value of equity capital.

As interval multipliers are used, for example:

Price to revenue ratio;

Price-earnings ratio;

Value for money and cash flow;

The ratio of price and dividend payments.

Samylin A.I., Shokhin E.I. Evaluation of cash flows and enterprise value // Business in law. 2012. No. 2. S. 264-266.

2. Profitability indicators, for example:

Return on assets (ROA) - is defined as the ratio of net profit to the amount of assets;

ROI (ROf) - calculated as a return (the amount of income received, net profit) on invested capital;

Return on equity (ROE)- is calculated as the ratio of net profit to the share capital of the enterprise.

3. Capitalization method exists in two modifications:

Direct capitalization, according to which the value of
acceptance is defined as the ratio of net annual income,
which the enterprise receives, to the capitalization rate,
calculated on equity;

Mixed investments, when the value of the enterprise is determined by

It is calculated as the ratio of the net annual income that the enterprise receives to the total capitalization rate, which is determined by the weighted average of the cost of equity and borrowed capital.

4. Models for valuation based on profit indicators, in
number with:

Earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation - EBITDA, allowing to determine the profit of the enterprise from the main activity and compare it with that of other enterprises;

Operating profit before interest and taxes - EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes), net operating profit, net of adjusted taxes - NOPLAT (Net operating profit less adjusted tax) and net operating profit before interest expenses - NOPAT (Net operating profit after tax). The following scheme for calculating indicators is possible:

Revenue - Expenses for ordinary activities = EBIT Tax(Adjusted Income Tax) = NOPLAT.

The income tax used in the calculation is called adjusted when there are differences between the financial and tax reporting of the enterprise. The current income tax in the statement of financial results and the amount of income tax calculated to be paid to the budget according to the tax return, as a rule, have different meanings. Indicators NOPLAT"and MOH / MT are associated with the calculation of the value of economic value added EVA(English - economic value °dded). If when calculating the value NOPLAT data are taken from tax reporting, then the income tax value is taken from financial statements.

acceptance when used as an infobase

enterprise financial statements:

using cash flow indicators, such as FCF (free cas ^ A ow ~ free cash flow), ECF (eauity cashflow- cash flows to shareholders). This group of indicators operates with the concepts of discounted cash flows. In this case, the discount rate is calculated for the indicator ECF by model SARM, and to calculate the indicator FCF often taken equal to the value of the weighted average cost of capital WACC. As a result of calculating the indicator FCF records the cash flow available to shareholders and creditors of the company, and ECF- the cash flow available to shareholders after the repayment of debt obligations; "using indicators NPV (English net present value - net present value) and APV(English) adjusted present value- adjusted present value). This group of indicators is used, for example, when an enterprise can be represented as a set of parts, each of which can be evaluated as an independent investment project. In the presence of one-time or time-distributed investments, the enterprise uses the indicator NPV.The NPV indicator is a net cash flow, defined as the difference between the inflow and outflow of cash, adjusted to the current point in time. It characterizes the amount of money that an investor can receive after the proceeds pay off the investments and payments. The difference in the calculation of the indicator APV from the calculation of the indicator NPV consists in using the effect of "tax protection";

based on the combination of income and expenses - model EBO (Edwards-Bell-Ohlson valuation model). In this case, the advantages of cost and income approaches are used. The value of an enterprise is calculated using the present value of its net assets and the discounted flow, defined as the deviation of profit from its industry average;

based on the concept of residual income using indicators EVA(English) economic value added - economic value added), MVA(English) market value added - market value added

added cost) and CVA(English) cash value added - added value of residual cash flow).

Let's take a look at the individual metrics.

1. Market value added indicator MVA allows you to evaluate the object on the basis of market capitalization and the market value of the debt. It shows the present value of current and future cash flows. Index MVA is calculated as the difference between the market price of capital and the amount of capital attracted by the enterprise in the form of investments. The higher the value of this indicator, the higher the value of the enterprise. The disadvantage of the "measure is that it does not take into account the intermediate return to shareholders and the opportunity cost of invested capital.

2. Index SVA(English - shareholder value added) is called an indicator of the calculation of the value on the basis of "shareholder" added value. It is calculated as the difference between the cost of equity before and after the transaction. When calculating this indicator, it is considered that the added value for shareholders is created in the case when the value of the return on investment capital R01C more than the weighted average cost of capital raised WACC. This will continue only during the period when the company is actively using its competitive advantages. As soon as competition in this area increases, LO / C decreases, the gap between ROIC and WACC will become insignificant and the creation of "shareholder" added value will cease.

There is another definition SVA- it is the increment between the estimated and book value of equity capital. The disadvantage of the method is the difficulty of predicting cash flows. The expression for calculating the cost is:

Enterprise value = Market value of the investment

capital at the beginning of the period + Amount SVA forecast period +

Market value of non-conducted activity assets.

3. Total shareholder return TSR(English -
total shareholders return) characterizes the overall effect of investment
shareholder income in the form of dividends, increments or
decrease in the company's cash flows due to growth or decline
change in the stock price for a certain period. It determines the income
the period of ownership of the company's shares and is calculated as
solving the difference in the price of the company's shares at the end and beginning of the analysis
period to the stock price at the beginning of the period. Lack given
This indicator is that it does not take into account the risk,
related to investments, which is calculated in relation to
form and determines the percentage of return on invested capital, and not
the amount to be returned, etc.

4. Cash flow indicator determined by return on invested capital CFROI (English)- cash flow return on investment) as the ratio of adjusted cash inflows at current prices to adjusted cash outflows at current prices. The advantage of the indicator is that it is adjusted for inflation, since the calculation is based on indicators expressed in current prices. In the case when the value of the indicator is greater than the value specified by the investors, the company generates cash flows, and if not, then the value of the enterprise decreases. The disadvantage is that the result obtained is presented as a relative indicator, and not as a sum of costs.

5. Index CVA(English - cash value added) otherwise called indicator RCF(English - residual cash flow), created in accordance with

The concept of residual income and is defined as the difference between operating cash flow and the product of the weighted average cost of capital and the adjusted total assets. Unlike the indicator CFROI, This indicator takes into account the value wacc, and adjustments are similar to those made to calculate the indicator EVA.

6. Balanced Scorecard BSC(English - balanced
scorecard) was developed by D. Norton and R. Kaplan. The purpose of the system
Topics BSC is the achievement of the goals set by the enterprise
and taking into account financial and non-financial factors for this. At the core
system lies "the desire to take into account the interests of shareholders, buyers
lei, creditors and other business partners.

System BSC arose as a result of the need to take into account non-financial indicators in business valuation and the desire to take into account indicators that are not included in the financial statements. The purpose of its application is to obtain answers to a number of questions, including: how customers, partners and government authorities evaluate the company, what are its competitive benefits, what is the volume and effectiveness of innovation, what is the return on staff training and the introduction of corporate policy in the social life of the team?

For effective business management in this case, it is necessary to determine the values, objectives and strategy acceptable to shareholders, debtors and creditors, and develop methods for quantifying these interests. As these issues are resolved, the system BSC become an important cash flow management tool.

7. Economic added value EVA(English -
economic value added) used when it is difficult to determine
Cash flows of the enterprise for the future. It is based on

Index EVA can be used to evaluate the enterprise as a whole and to evaluate its individual objects.

The purpose of the article is to develop a methodology for calculating cash flows in the forecast and extended period and the value of the company, as well as determining their changes under the influence of key factors.

Alexander Samylin
Estimating the company's cash flows
"Economic Strategies", No. 08-2008, pp. 120-125

Introduction

Since the beginning of the transition to a market economy, the management of the company's finances has undergone changes. At the first stage, the main goal of management was profit maximization, and at the second stage, expansion and conquest of new sales markets. As competition grew, unoccupied business niches disappeared, the emphasis in financial management began to shift to increasing the profitability of operations. At present, the growth of the company's economic profit, the increase in the value of the business and the cash flows directed to shareholders and investors are increasingly becoming the target function of management.

Competitors, buyers, suppliers and investors, when selling a company, in case of raising funds and in the process of business planning of financial and economic activities, are increasingly asking the question: how much does your business and your company cost? This question is not idle, and the answer to it determines the level of risk for counterparties when establishing cooperation with this company and when making management decisions. A company that is valued higher and generates more cash flows, ceteris paribus, is less risky in terms of investment and return on invested capital.

An appraisal of the company's value is necessary when buying and selling, when reorganizing a company in accordance with Article 57 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, when insuring, for registering a pledge when obtaining a loan, in the process of preparing a prospectus for the issue of securities and organizing the circulation of securities on the stock exchange, when searching for an investor and in other cases. All this determines the relevance of the problem of assessing the value of the company and the cash flows generated by it.

The company's value should be understood primarily as a complex indicator in value terms that determines the state of all areas of activity, including ordinary activities, financial and investment activities, minus liabilities. To the mentioned areas of activity, characterized by financial indicators, one should add activities aimed at increasing the level of professionalism of employees, maintaining and improving the image of the company. Such activity is characterized by non-financial indicators, which for the most part are not yet formalized mathematically, but also contribute to the increase in the value of the company. Therefore, the company's value can be defined as the totality of its assets, invested capital, its return in the forecast and extended period, minus liabilities.

When calculating the value of the company, financial statements are used, which reflect information about assets and liabilities.

At the same time, cash flows generated by the company arising from the increase in working capital and capital investments, for example, in fixed assets and intangible assets, are not reflected in the financial statements. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a methodology for calculating cash flows in the forecast and extended period and the value of the company, to determine their change under the influence of the main factors. The solution of these problems was the purpose of the article.

Types and methods of company valuation

According to Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 519 of 07/06/2001 "On Approval of Valuation Standards", there are: the market value of the object of assessment and the types of value of the object that are used in specific business situations, for example: the cost of the object of assessment with a limited market, the cost of replacement and reproduction , disposal and salvage value, investment value and value for tax purposes.

The calculation of the value of the company is carried out on the basis of one of three approaches: cost, comparative or profitable. The cost approach is based on determining the cost by establishing the costs that are necessary to restore or replace the object of assessment, taking into account its wear and tear. This approach is applied to the valuation of newly created companies and is based on the net assets method and the salvage value method. With a comparative approach, the value of an object is determined on the basis of a comparison of the cost of objects that have similar and homogeneous evaluation and comparison criteria. The comparative approach uses three valuation methods: the capital market method, the industry coefficient method, and the transaction method. In the first two cases, the value of an operating company is assessed, and in the latter, the value of a company that changes its activity. The income approach is based on determining the company's cash flows and calculating net cash flow as the difference between discounted cash inflow and cash outflow. This approach is used in the case of the implementation of investment projects and investments in intellectual property. The period of time during which it is planned to receive income is divided into two periods: forecast, characterizing cash flows during the implementation of the project, and extended - upon completion of the project. At the first stage, future cash flows are forecast, at the second stage, future cash flows are converted into present value, and at the third stage they are reflected in the forecast cash flow statement. In an unstable economy, it is difficult to predict cash flows, which narrows the scope of this approach. The income approach uses two methods: the profit capitalization method and the discounted cash flow method. The capitalization method is used for companies that have established cash flows - both their receipt from investors and shareholders, and the return on invested capital. The discounted cash flow method is used for companies that profit from competitive advantages.

Methods for estimating the value of a company and the cash flows it generates have changed over time. Initially, the calculations were carried out using moment and interval multipliers, profitability and profit indicators. Currently, a number of specialized complex indicators are used.
There are the following cost estimation methods:

• using discounted cash flow indicators, such as FCF (Free Cash Flow), ECF (Equity Cash Flow). The CCF indicator is used when the amount of cash sent to shareholders and investors is set, and the ECF indicator is used when the amount of cash flows for shareholders after the repayment of debt obligations is set;
  
• using indicators such as NPV (Net Present Value), APV (Adjusted Present Value), when a company can be represented as a set of parts, each of which can be evaluated as an investment project. In the presence of one-time or time-distributed investments, the NPV indicator is used. Its difference from the APV measure is the use of "tax protection" in the case of the APV measure;
  
• based on the principle of residual income using indicators such as EVA (Economic Value Added), MVA (Market Value Added). The use of the EVA indicator allows you to determine whether the shareholders receive the same return on their invested equity capital as in the case of its investment in alternative projects. Market Value Added (MVA) evaluates the value of an enterprise based on market capitalization and market value of debt, but does not take into account the intermediate return to shareholders and the opportunity cost of invested capital;
  
• based on combining income and expenses - EBO (Edwards-Bell-Ohlson valuation model), when cost and income approaches are combined, taking into account the value of net assets.

The value of the company is determined as the sum of the cost of equity and excess profit, calculated as a discounted cash flow.

Calculation and change in the value of the company under the influence of the main factors

A methodology for calculating cash flows with a change in a number of key factors has been developed. In table. Table 1 shows an example of calculating cash flows with the following values ​​of factors in the forecast period: revenue growth rate - 25%, cost growth rate - 15%, sales and management expenses growth rate - 7%, weighted average price of capital - 20%, invested capital growth rate - 8%, growth rate of depreciation charges - 6%. The growth rate of these factors in the extended period is 5%.
Based on the proposed methodology, the change in the value of the company's cash flows under the influence of the main factors is analyzed. The range of factor values ​​is set based on the business conditions of companies engaged in different types of activities.

The change in cash flows and the company's value with a change in the profit growth rate is shown in fig. 1. The calculation was made under the condition that the values ​​of the factors remain unchanged: the revenue growth rate of the extended period qn is 5%, the value of the investment rate NI in the forecast and extended periods is 14.4%, the amount of capital invested at the beginning of the forecast period IC = 53.2 thousand rubles ., the amount of depreciation deductions of JSC attributable to the main production assets - 15 thousand rubles.

The values ​​of the weighted average cost of capital WACC and the return on invested capital ROIC varied.

The presented graph shows that the value of cash flows due to the increase in working capital and investments differs by years of the forecast and extended periods and decreases with an increase in the value of WACC from 6 to 30%. This is due to an increase in the cost of capital raised, as a result of which the company has less free funds at its disposal and cash flows decrease. A noticeable difference in cash flows begins at WACC = 10%. With an increase in the growth rate of profit NOPLAT q from 5 to 35%, which is determined by the multidirectional influence of such factors as sales proceeds, cost of sales, selling and administrative expenses, the amount of cash flows increases. With a 6-fold increase in WACC, cash flows increase relatively slightly, namely from 911 thousand to 1567 thousand rubles, or 1.7 times with WACC = 30%. A significant change in cash flow occurs at WACC = 6%, when this value changes from 22,780 thousand to 47,896 thousand rubles, or 2.1 times. With an expected annual growth rate in the range of 15-20% and a price of capital raised in the range of 15-20%, the company can focus on cash flows in the range of 2,000 to 3,500 thousand rubles in financial planning.

The dependence of the change in the amount of cash flows from the change in the investment rate NI is shown in Fig. 2. The calculation was made at a constant value of the profit growth rate in the forecast and extended period. Accordingly, q \u003d 15%, qn \u003d 5%, the amount of AO \u003d 15 thousand rubles. The value of cash flows decreases with an increase in the payment for attracted capital. With an increase in the value of NI, the amount of cash flow decreases from 33,033 thousand to 22,624 thousand rubles. at WACC = 6% and from 1218 thousand to 834 thousand rubles. with WACC = 30%. There is a decrease in cash flow by 31.5%.

The growth of the value of NI is determined by the increase in working capital and capital investments. As a result, free cash flow decreases, which determines the decrease in the final cash flow. This is accompanied by a 3.5-fold decrease in ROIC: from 1.51 to 0.43. A significant change in cash flows is observed in the WACC range from 6 to 15%. The conditions under which management is possible is the NI range from 30 to 35%.

In this case, in financial planning, the company can use cash flows in the amount of 2,000 thousand to 3,000 thousand rubles in calculations. in the selected WACC range from 15 to 20%.

On fig. 3 shows the dependence of changes in cash flows on the amount of depreciation. The calculation is based on the assumption that the profit growth rate in the forecast and extended periods is the same and amounts to 15%: q = qn = 15%, the amount of invested capital is 53.2 thousand rubles. The graph shows that with a change in the weighted average cost of capital from 6% to 30%, or 5 times, the cash flow decreases by 27.1 times, which is explained by the diversion of significant funds to pay for the capital attracted by the company. With an increase in the amount of depreciation from 10 thousand to 50 thousand rubles. cash flow increases: at WACC = 6% - from 29,136 thousand to 34,367 thousand rubles, and at WACC = 30% - from 1,074 thousand to 1,267 thousand rubles. With an increase in the amount of JSC by 5 times, the cash flow increases by 1.18 times. The increase in cash flow is determined by the growth of gross cash flow and free cash flow with a decrease in the investment rate from 16.2% to 12.5%. In accordance with IFRS IAS 16 Property, Plant and Equipment, the depreciation method can change over the life of the asset, which means that it is possible to regulate cash flows using the AO factor.

On fig. 4 shows the dependence of changes in cash flows on the value of return on invested capital ROIC. The calculations were performed on the basis of the assumption of a constant value of AO = 15 thousand rubles. and investment rates NI = 14.4% in the forecast and extended period. The amount of cash flow falls with the growth of the WACC value from 6 to 30%, which is due to an increase in the diversion of funds to pay for the attracted capital. With an increase in ROIC, cash flow increases, which is due to an increase in the capital attracted by the company. With WACC = 6%, the amount of cash flow increases from 20,156 thousand to 22,806 thousand rubles, and with WACC = 15% - from 2,054 thousand to 2,280 thousand rubles. With WACC values ​​from 20 to 30%, the cash flow changes insignificantly and is in the range from 840 thousand to 1520 thousand rubles. For the company, an increase in ROIC is preferable. If the value of ROIC> 30% in the process of financial planning, you can take into account cash flows in the range from 2000 thousand to 3000 thousand rubles.
The dependence of the change in cash flow on the value of IC is shown in fig. 5. The calculations are based on the assumption that the profit growth rate in the forecast period is 15%, and in the extended period - 5%, the amount of AO = 15 thousand rubles, at the beginning of the analyzed period the amount of invested capital IC = 50 thousand rubles. The decrease in cash flow with an increase in WACC from 6 to 30% is explained by the same reasons as in the other charts above. It is most noticeable between 6% and 15% WACC and is almost unchanged between 15% and 30% WACC. Decrease in cash flow when changing the value of IC from 50 thousand to 250 thousand rubles. due to a decrease in the amount of free cash flow with an increase in the investment rate from 13.2 to 88.3%. The obtained results show that the q factor with a change rate of about 110% and the IC factor with a change rate of about 86% have the greatest impact on the change in the company's value.

Conclusion

You can increase the value of the company in the following ways:

• through the restructuring of the company, when the focus is, for example, on changing the management structure, on the formation of financial responsibility centers in the company, expanding their rights and increasing responsibility, on developing a system of labor motivation and employee interest in the final result. The cost of this method is much less than that of other methods. The main problem is explaining to employees the need for changes and teaching them new ways of working;
  
• by increasing the transparency and openness of the company for investors, suppliers, buyers and other interested users. This can be achieved, for example, by switching to International Financial Reporting Standards, disseminating information about the state of affairs and prospects for the company's development through rating agencies.The disadvantages of this method are longer implementation periods and higher costs than when using the first method, since the main focus is on attracting foreign capital, and therefore on creating an attractive image of the company abroad;
  
• through the development of industrial potential through, for example, the expansion of production, the commissioning of new and reconstruction of existing facilities. A company that has invested in an investment project will reduce profitability and profitability in the current period, but on the other hand, when cash flows at the beginning of the return on the investment project (in the forecast period) and after its completion (in the extended period), having increased potential, it will significantly increase its attractiveness and value. This is the most promising method and the most costly, since it is associated with increased risks;
  
• by choosing the optimal values ​​of influencing factors on the basis of the research. Their results can be used in the preparation of a cash flow statement using the budgeting method and forecast financial statements.
  

PES 8278/09.11.2008

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