Forecasts for inflated odds. What is important for beginners to know about odds

Many players know that odds at bookmakers are often inflated. On the determination of such coefficients, for example, we build famous strategy betting – Kelly criterion, according to which it makes sense to bet on outcomes with odds greater than two.

From the point of view of such players, inflated odds do not so much reflect the teams' chances of winning a sports competition, but serve to more comfortable distribute the bookmaker's profits. In other words, the odds for various outcomes only show how the bets are distributed. How more money bet on any outcome, the lower the quotes. A rapid drop in odds is one way to determine match fixing.

Bookmakers often offer inflated odds on totals in football.

Playing at inflated odds

Over a long enough period, playing at inflated odds can bring good profits. In football betting, it is popular to search for bets on total over 3.5 and total over 4.5. Bookmakers offer decent odds for such outcomes – from 2.0 or more.

To determine whether the selected event is suitable for betting, it is necessary to analyze how both teams participating in the match concede and score. football match. First of all, the goals conceded and scored by the home team on the home field are analyzed, and the goals of the visiting team on the guest field are analyzed. Joint matches of the teams, if any, are analyzed. Next, the overall statistics of the teams are analyzed over one or two seasons. You can take a larger number of seasons for analysis, but take into account that the club that was the champion ten years ago may lose half of its matches this season.

How to spot inflated odds

Before placing bets at a bookmaker's office, you need to determine whether the odds for a total of more than 3.5 or 4.5 are in this case too high. To do this, we take from the general statistics of the home team all the matches played on the home field, select from them those that were played with a total greater than the indicator we need and divide total number home matches by the number of matches with TB. We calculate a similar indicator for the visiting team - the total number of away matches and the number of away matches with TB are used, respectively.

From the two numbers obtained, the arithmetic mean is calculated. This is the odds that can be compared with the quotes offered by the bookmaker. If the calculated average odds are greater than the bookmaker's, you can place a bet.

The bet amount is calculated using the formula:

C – bet amount that can be placed on an outcome with an inflated odds

S – percentage of the bank allocated for base rate and decreasing as the coefficient increases

K – bookmaker’s odds.

Features of the game on totals

One of important points What you should pay attention to when betting on a higher total is the difference between the number of goals scored and goals missed. Ideally, it should tend to zero. If two outsiders are playing, one of whom has a goals-to-miss ratio of 7 – 28, and the other 9 – 32, the teams do not know how to score, and the total in the match is unlikely to be large. If the ratio is the opposite (28-7 and 32-9, respectively), teams concede little, and betting on a higher total is also inappropriate. Optimal, for example, is a ratio of 28 – 32.

It is very important to take into account data from the last 5-10 games. Alternatively, you can calculate the average odds separately for the season and separately for the last few matches. Perhaps there have been some changes in the team that have changed the style and strategy of the game.

In football, the quality of the surface on the field can have a critical impact on the total and the outcome of the match. Moreover, you need to pay attention to both the lawn and weather. If the lawn is of poor quality or unusual, the team will not show good football, and in bad weather, betting on a larger total is generally undesirable. On a field slippery from rain it is much more difficult to attack and much easier to defend.

Betting on the total is always some risk. On the one hand, the team only needs to throw one more goal, and the bookmaker’s clients will receive a substantial jackpot. On the other hand, football is less productive than, for example, hockey, and 6-7 goals in a football match is rare.

Features of betting on inflated odds

Bets on inflated odds are made not only in the pre-match, but also in real time. It was during sports match Many players bet for the sake of excitement, without delving into what is happening on the field and without studying statistics. The office rarely pays attention to what guides players when planning bets on football - passion, sober calculation, intuition. It is important for a company to maintain correct ratios.

Inflated odds are found not only in total bets, but also in other football outcomes. If a favorite and an underdog meet in a match, the odds for the favorite to win will always be higher, even if the second team has real chances win the match. An analysis of joint matches will help here: if the outsider beats the favorite in 7 out of 10 matches, while in the current gaming season he is not performing very well with other teams, it makes sense to calculate and bet on his victory.

To be able to find inflated odds means to correctly analyze the upcoming event. How to find an inflated coefficient? To do this, you need to carry out a huge amount of analytical work, collecting as much data as possible for analysis.

It is necessary to evaluate the position of teams in the table, count victories, defeats, take into account personal confrontations and other statistical information. In this case, it is necessary to take into account a number of factors, such as team compositions, players absent due to injuries and disqualifications, the referee of the upcoming match, etc.

At the same time, we must not forget about the events that occur in the life of the club. These are coaching resignations and appointments, scandals, transfer acquisitions and sales, etc. The outcome of the match can be affected not only by these factors, but also by others, such as weather conditions.

Not everyone will like this activity, but there will be those who find it fascinating. In any case, this is an integral part of successful betting. Ability to find overestimated coefficient, this means having analytical skills no worse than . Or maybe it’s even better, because the essence of inflated odds is that the player evaluates the chances independently and compares them with those included in the bookmaker’s odds.

Beyond analysis sporting event, an analysis of bookmaker lines is carried out and the odds offered by the sites of several bookmakers are compared; these can be 5 or even 10 different Internet resources.

How to find an inflated odds

Find inflated odds- in other words, to detect an event in the bookmaker's line, where the odds do not reflect the real one, which, in your opinion, is slightly higher than in the opinion of the bookmaker.

The more qualitative, better and more correct you conduct a pre-match analysis of an underestimated (in your opinion) event, the greater the chances of success and the greater the likelihood that the bookmaker really underestimated the event by setting an inflated odds.

Value bet – in simple words, this is when your view of the outcome of the confrontation differs from the view of the bookmaker. Moreover, according to your calculations, the probability of the team winning is higher than the probability that the bookmaker offers in its odds.

I hope you understand the essence of searching for inflated odds; in the following articles this topic will be discussed in more detail.

Betting on inflated odds is an opportunity to calculate the bookmaker, his abilities and place a bet on the most likely outcome of a sporting event. Bookmakers and their analytical departments, numbering from hundreds to thousands of mathematical heads, take the most careful approach to setting lines for sporting events. Absolutely all risks, market offers, the state and situation in a particular championship are taken into account. Even weather conditions, which can also influence the outcome of a particular sporting event.

However, even experienced bookmakers cannot estimate the probability of the outcome of a sports match one hundred percent. They analyze all the collected information and set their own odds, which the client (bookmaker) accepts or not. This is precisely the professionalism of each player in the bookmaker’s office, finding the bookmaker’s mistakes and trying to place financial funds on them as early as possible.

How to determine an inflated odds on a bookmaker's line?

To determine the inflated odds, the player must be an experienced capper and independently determine the teams’ chances. Without looking at the line of bookmakers, try to set your odds for the upcoming event. And ultimately compare it with the result of the bookmaker’s analytical departments. If the views of the player and the bookmaker differ on some outcomes, this is an overestimated or underestimated odds!

Example of a bet with inflated odds

And so, let’s look at an example of tossing a coin; the probability that it will land on its edge is a maximum of 0.02%. But if you think soberly, then you need to be a master or a magician to perform this trick. The probability that the coin will land heads up is 50%, tails is 50%. Translated to the bookmaker's line, these outcomes will be equal - 2.0 to 2.0. We withdraw the bookmaker's profit - the margin, in different ways for different companies, and we have a clear line that heads will fall - 1.95, tails will fall - 1.95. These are our calculations as a professional capper. And comparing with the line of bookmakers, we clearly see that the bookmaker offers us to play on the fact that heads will fall out for 1.7, tails respectively - 2.2. It is precisely outcome 2.2 that is an inflated odds.

In this case, the player, betting using this method, will absolutely always make a profit.

If you bet on the outcome sports competitions, you need to be able to understand betting odds. In addition, you need to learn how to quickly calculate the likely winnings for various betting odds, especially when they change during the course of a sporting event. Betting odds determine the likelihood of a certain event happening (team wins, boxer wins) and the amount you will receive if you win. But there are several ways to convey such information.

Steps

Part 1

1. Betting odds determine the probability (chance) of a certain event happening, that is, which team, horse or athlete has a higher chance of winning. Exist various ways records of betting odds, but they all indicate the probabilities of a particular outcome of a sporting event.

   • For example, when you flip a coin, it will come up either heads or tails. The chances are the same, that is, they are equal “one to one”.
   • For example, there is an 80% chance of rain, meaning there is a 20% chance that it will not rain. Odds: 80 to 20. Or they say it's four times more likely to rain.
   • Circumstances change spontaneously, so the odds (and with them the betting odds) also change. It's not an exact science.

2. In most cases, bets are placed on the outcome of a specific sporting event. For example, the probability of a team, athlete or horse winning. Bookmakers use statistical data (teams, athletes, horses) to predict who will win.

   • The team, athlete or horse with the higher odds is the "favourite". If the odds are low, then most likely the event will not happen.

3. Remember that low odds bring more profit. Betting on underdogs is riskier than betting on favorites, but the higher the risk, the higher the potential winnings.

   • The lower the chances of winning, the more money you can win.

4. Know betting terminology. You can find out the meaning of such terminology from your bookmaker, but it is better to know it in advance (before placing a bet).

   • Bank - the amount of money allocated by the player for bets.
   • Bookmaker (“bookies”) is a person or agency that accepts bets, pays out winnings, and sets betting odds.
   • The favorite is the competitor with the highest chance of winning (according to the bookmaker).
   • Arb - bets on both the favorite and the outsider, allowing you to minimize losses.
   • Line - a specific list of events and their outcomes with established odds.
   • A bet is an amount of money that a player bets on the probability of a certain event occurring.

   Part 2

   British (fractional) betting odds

   Part 3

   American betting odds

   1. Remember that bets here only look at the odds of winning. American betting odds are positive or negative numbers written next to the team names. A negative number determines the favorite, and the positive - the outsider.

      • For example, Dallas Cowboys, -135; Seattle Seahawks, 135. This means the Cowboys are the favorites, but you'll get less money if they win.
      • If you are not familiar with American odds, find an online calculator to calculate your winnings and profits. But over time, you will learn to do it manually.

   2. A positive coefficient indicates how much profit you will make for every $100 you bet (you will also be paid the amount you bet). For example, if you bet $100 on the Seahawks, if that team wins, you will win $235 (your profit is $135).

      • If you bet $200, your profit will double. To calculate your profit per dollar bet, divide the amount you bet by 100.
      • Multiply the result by the bet odds to calculate your profit. For example, if you bet $50, then (50/100) x 135 = $67.50. This is your profit margin.
      • For example, if you bet $250 on the Cowboys, if that team wins you will win $587.50 (250 + 135 x).

   3. Negative odds indicate how much you must bet to win $100. By betting on the favorite, you risk less, and therefore win less. For example, to make a profit of $100, you need to bet $135 on the Cowboys (you will also be paid the amount you bet).

      • To calculate the profit per dollar wagered, divide 100 by the bet odds. If the bet odds are -150, then you will receive 66 cents for every dollar wagered (100/150).
      • For example, if the bet odds are -150 and you bet $90, your winnings will be $150 (90 + 90 x).

Most players are looking for 100% of the bets to “definitely work”, but such bets simply do not exist in nature. But it’s quite possible to catch a bookmaker making a mistake. In this case, by error I mean a situation where the bookmaker gives a relatively high (1.3 – 1.5) odds on an outcome whose probability is very high. Let me give you a few examples.

Example 1. Match "Bayern" - "Mainz 05".
Bet on Mainz to win with a handicap (+3.5), odds 1.32

On March 2, as part of the 24th round of the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich hosted Mainz. The owners were clear favorites, which is not surprising - the Reds won all previous home games. But in this match, I paid attention to the large odds for the guests to win with a handicap, and placed a bet on H2 (+3.5) for 1.32.

Yes, Bayern in Munich won crushing victories against Borussia Dortmund, Wolfsburg, Cologne, Hamburg and Stuttgart, but they all came at the very beginning of the season, when the “red car” smashed everyone and everything . At the time of the meeting with Mainz, the Munich team had clearly slowed down, and it was not expected that the hosts would score 4 or more unanswered goals.

In addition, Bayern played two important matches before this - against Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga and Juventus in the Champions League, which could not but affect the motivation and physical condition of the German champion.

Thus, several factors at once spoke in favor of the fact that the “Reds” victory would not be major. But the result exceeded the wildest expectations - Bayern lost to Mainz with a score of 1:2.

Example 2. Match Molde - Sevilla.
Bet on Molde victory with handicap (+2.0), odds 1.27

On February 25, the return match of the 1/16 finals of the Europa League took place in Norway between the local club Molde and the Spanish Sevilla. As in the first case, I noticed the fairly high odds for the Norwegians to win with a handicap, which I did not fail to take advantage of.

What did I proceed from when betting on F1 (+2.0)? Firstly, from the results of the first match, which ended with a score of 3:0 in favor of the Spaniards, who actually secured access to the next round. Therefore, the team from Seville could afford to rotate, fielding a semi-reserve squad.

Second. Terrible statics of Unai Emery's team in away games. On this moment(03/11/16) “Seville” is the only team in the Spanish championship that does not have away victories, despite the fact that it is in 5th place in the Examples! And in the group stage of the Champions League (Sevilla took third place in the group and qualified for the Europa League), the Spaniards lost all 3 away matches.

And third. Traditionally confident play of Scandinavian teams in their native walls. In addition, the upcoming match was the last for the Molde legend, midfielder Daniel Hestad, which certainly had to affect the mood of the Norwegian team.

Thus, the bet that Molde would not lose with a difference of 3 goals looked like ironclad concrete and at the same time had a very good odds. As a result, the Scandinavians not only did not lose, but won with a score of 1:0!

Example 3. Match Levante - Real Madrid.
Bet on Real Madrid victory, odds 1.47

Sometimes bookmakers give inflated odds for obvious outcomes. So recently, for the victory of Real Madrid in an away match with the outsider of the Spanish Primera League - Levante, the odds for a clear victory for the royal club reached an exorbitant 1.47!

I don’t know what the bookmakers were guided by - the unimportant results in Real’s last two games (a draw with Malaga and a defeat by Atletico Madrid) or the tense atmosphere inside the club after Cristiano Ronaldo’s loud statements, one way or another, but the odds were clearly inflated .

For me, on the contrary, after two misfires, Real should have confidently defeated the last team in the Spanish championship, which is what happened - the Madrid club won with a score of 1:3.

In all the examples above, play the teams (in similar situations) 10 times - in 8 cases, I am more than confident that these bets worked. And given the inflated odds, this actually guarantees winning over the long haul.